This year saw journal publications across the full range of TMAP
science activities. Two papers examined aspects of the processes that
affect the upper ocean carbonate system and our ability to observe pCO2 (Murphy et
al. 1998, Loukos et al, 1998). Another used data from the TAO array to test the
ability of the Cane-Zebiak ENSO forecast model to reproduce observations, and
found the model lacking (Bennett et al, 1998). Another described the space-time
structure of tropical Pacific Westerly Wind Events, which appear to be important
for the onset of El Niño events (Harrison and Vecchi, 1998). Another was a summary
of oceanic modeling activities directed to understanding both the seasonal and
interannual variability of the tropical Pacific (Stockdale et al, 1998).
Harrison and Larkin (1998a) described the statistically significant global ocean
surface temperature and wind anomalies that have been associated with El Niño periods since
WWII, and introduced a new multivariate index for El Niño monitoring.
Harrison and Larkin (1998b) describe the statistically significant US seasonal weather
anomalies that have been associated with the post-WWII El Niño periods, and
compare them with the observed 1997-98 weather anomalies. Craig et al (1998) used PMEL
CFC data to explore the model ventillation pathways in a state of the art global ocean
circulation model.
This year should see publication of journal papers on: a simple
parameterization of equatorial Pacific pCO2 in terms of SST and SSS, a model/data study
of upper ocean equatorial eastward jets during 1991-92 and the extent to which
their dynamics differ from simple Kelvin wave balances, a model/data study of a
simple direct wind-forced mechanism for why the equatorial thermocline shallows
over the last 3-6 months of El Niño events, and a second model-data study concerning
the TAO data and the Cane-Zebiak model under different oceanic conditions. Hindcast
studies of the oceanic varibility during El Niño periods are underway and at least
one publication should be submitted by the end of the year. The statistically
significant ocean surface temperature changes that follow Westerly Wind Events, and
the relationship(s) between WWEs and the ENSO cycle have been described
and will be submitted for review. More ocean carbon sampling study work is
underway, to support the developing Carbon System Science national initiative. Some
of the meteorological changes that occur during atmospheric blocking
events over the North Pacific when the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is positive or
negative are being explored and a note should be prepared for publication. Harrison
will continue to participate on international GCOS/GOOS panels, on the US GODAE
Steering Group, the NOAA Seasonal-to-Interannual Strategic Planning Team and on the US
GOOS Steering Committee.
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PMEL FY98 Programs and FY99 Plans
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