Tropical
Meteorology:
Tropical
cyclones draw their energy from the sea and move with the surrounding
wind. Historically, hurricane forecasting has focused on track
with emphasis on steering by the synoptic-scale environment.
As society has begun to ask meteorologists to predict intensity
or seasonal levels of activity, the oceanic energy source, along
with the inhibiting effects of storm-induced ocean cooling and
vertical shear in the environmental wind, emerged as key factors.
It is clear that rapid intensification to Category 4 or 5 in
low shear over a deep mixed layer warmer than ~28 deg C will
be an essential element of the next hurricane catastrophe.
Multidecadal
changes in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation correspond
to variations of the numbers of hurricanes, most especially
of the most intense "major hurricanes" that cause
greatest damage. Hurricane wind and rain impacts on the built
(Figure h1) and natural environments
make human and economic effects an emerging field of study that
spans architecture, engineering, sociology, economics, biology,
chemistry, and even geology, in addition to meteorology and
oceanography. Scientists at AOML, working with colleagues at
Florida International University, the University of Miami, the
National Hurricane Center (NHC), the Environmental Modeling
Center, and elsewhere, are in a unique situation to pursue all
aspects of the hurricane problem.