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[Coastal & Regional] [Hurricanes]

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Hurricanes

Tropical Meteorology:
Tropical cyclones draw their energy from the sea and move with the surrounding wind. Historically, hurricane forecasting has focused on track with emphasis on steering by the synoptic-scale environment. As society has begun to ask meteorologists to predict intensity or seasonal levels of activity, the oceanic energy source, along with the inhibiting effects of storm-induced ocean cooling and vertical shear in the environmental wind, emerged as key factors. It is clear that rapid intensification to Category 4 or 5 in low shear over a deep mixed layer warmer than ~28 deg C will be an essential element of the next hurricane catastrophe.

Multidecadal changes in the Atlantic thermohaline circulation correspond to variations of the numbers of hurricanes, most especially of the most intense "major hurricanes" that cause greatest damage. Hurricane wind and rain impacts on the built (Figure h1) and natural environments make human and economic effects an emerging field of study that spans architecture, engineering, sociology, economics, biology, chemistry, and even geology, in addition to meteorology and oceanography. Scientists at AOML, working with colleagues at Florida International University, the University of Miami, the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the Environmental Modeling Center, and elsewhere, are in a unique situation to pursue all aspects of the hurricane problem.

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