Petroleum Outlook: More Volatility?
Product Price Volatility-This Year and in the Future
WTI Crude Oil Price: Potential for Volatility Around Base Case
OPEC Crude Oil Production 1998-2001
Annual World Oil Demand Growth by Region, 1991-2001
Low Total OECD Oil Stocks* Keep Market Balance Tight
Fundamentals Explain High Crude Oil Prices
Product Price Spreads Over Crude Oil Reflect Product Market-Based Volatility
U.S. Distillate Inventories
Distillate Winter Demand Stronger Than Temperatures Would Imply
High Production Offset Lack of Inventory
High Production Came From High Yields & High Inputs
High Margins Bring High Imports
Gasoline Price Volatility Is a Concern This Summer
Gasoline Volatility
Low Stocks Mean Tight Markets
Regional Stocks
Gasoline Demand Growth Respite Not Expected to Last
Utilization Highest in Summer When Gasoline Production is High
Gasoline Production Not Projected to Be Much Higher than Last Summer
Strong Margins Could Mean High Imports
Retail Motor Gasoline Price* Forecast Doesn’t Reflect Potential Volatility
Issues for Petroleum Market
Excess Capacity is Gone
U.S. is Dependent on Gasoline Imports
Product Imports Projected to Grow
Atlantic Basin is Important Source of Gasoline Imports
Europe
EU-15 Gasoline & Distillate Demand
Supply Implications
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