Crime
in the United States, 2000
Section V of Crime in the United
States, 2000 presents an analysis of motor vehicle theft and
recovery in the United States for the year 1999. The National
Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) and National Crime Information
Center (NCIC) data are used in this study, which analyzes and
tabulates motor vehicle theft and recovery by day of the week,
month of the year, and location of the incident.
The results for both data sets
(NIBRS and NCIC) show that by the day of the week, Friday (15.69
percent for NIBRS and 14.97 percent for NCIC) and Saturday (16.13
percent for NIBRS and 14.24 percent for NCIC) are the two days
with the highest frequency of motor vehicle theft, and Monday
(15.92 percent for NIBRS and 16.08 percent for NCIC) and Tuesday
(15.74 percent for NIBRS and 16.42 percent for NCIC) are the
days that show the highest recovery rates. The overall recovery
rates of 53.10 percent and 51.43 percent for NIBRS and NCIC,
respectively, exhibit striking similarities between these two
data systems. Although the collection and use of NIBRS data in
this study are limited to18 states (currently 22 states report
NIBRS data), the rates at which cars are stolen and recovered
are similar to the rates in NCIC, which collects data from the
50 states, the District of Columbia, and U.S. Territories. This
significant finding supports that NIBRS at its current level
of operation can be considered as a nationally representative
data set, at least in the area of motor vehicle theft. It also
confirms the reliability and validity of the NIBRS data.
Based on the NIBRS data, higher
rates of motor vehicle theft occur in the second half of the
year than in the first half. The higher rates of motor vehicle
theft during the warmer summer months may be attributable to
the same "seasonal" effect associated with other offenses.
The fourth-quarter increase may be assigned in part to the availability
of new model automobiles and in part to the holiday season. Most
of the vehicles are recovered, if they are ever recovered,in
the same months in which they were stolen. In addition to day
of the week and month of the year, location of the motor vehicle
theft incident is another factor that influences the rate of
motor vehicle theft. The study shows that most of the incidents
took place at such locations as residence/home (35.31 percent),
parking lot/garage (22.75 percent), and highway/road/alley (17.96
percent).
The survival analysis model employed
in this study reveals the patterns and chance of recovering the
stolen cars based on the number of days elapsed since the theft
incident. Based on the NIBRS data used in the analysis, 57.08
percent of the stolen motor vehicles are recovered in the first
day and 79.43 percent are recovered during the first six days,
which indicates that the first few days after the theft are critical
in recovering the stolen vehicles. The longer the vehicle is
in the possession of the criminals, the less the chance of recovery.
In terms of clearance, the study
demonstrates that the age group between 12 to 17 has the largest
number of motor vehicle theft arrests for both sexes and all
races. The next highest age group arrested involves people between
18 and 24 years old. The total percentage of clearance for recovered
motor vehicles is only 17.15 percent. The low rate of clearance
can be attributed to the nature of the crime, its volume, and
the degree of difficulty in solving this particular crime.