|
SEC's Space Weather
|
Notice: June, 2003 -- Changes inSEC's designed primary and secondary GOES satellites. The switch is transparent to Weather Weather users except for header changes in the Current Space Weather Indices and Daily Space Weather Indices reports.
The National Weather Service (NWS) provides Direct Broadcast Systems that distribute emergency weather conditions and forecasts to North America and parts of Central and South America. In 1996, the Space Environment Center (SEC) began distributing Space Weather products on NWS direct broadcast systems. SEC currently issues 24 space weather alerts and 12 space weather products. These products are available on several NWS systems and from SEC via Internet connections and e-mail.
SEC Space Weather Products on NWS systems are described below. A description of the NWS Systems is included below. General formatting conventions are described in Programmer Notes.
SEC provides extensive on-line near-real-time space weather alerts, data, displays, and products. See Online Data for a table of all space weather information and services available from SEC, or start at SEC Home and explore our web site. Please read the SEC Disclaimer before using these products.
SEC welcomes customer questions and feedback SEC.Webmaster@noaa.gov
|
NWS Code
|
WMO ID
|
Title
|
Issue Time
and Frequency |
Online Source
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
SWXxxxxxx
see table |
Space Weather Alerts |
as condition warrant
|
||
| 2 |
SWXCURIND
|
AXXX83
|
Current Space Weather Indices -- current day |
hourly, beginning 0035 UTC
|
|
| 3 |
SWX3HRCON
|
FXXX04
|
3-hourly Space Weather Conditions and Forecast (WWV) |
every 3 hours beginning 0000 UTC
|
|
| 4 |
SWXDAYIND
|
AXXX81
|
Daily Space Weather Indices -- previous day |
every 6 hours beginning 0015 UTC
|
|
| 5 |
SWXDAYOBS
|
AXXX82
|
Summary of Space Weather Observations -- previous day |
Daily after 0030 UTC
|
|
| 6 |
SWXDAYEVT
|
AXXX80
|
Space Weather Event Reports -- previous day |
Daily after 0250 UTC
|
|
| 7 |
SWXDAYDSF
|
FXXX01
|
Daily Space Weather Summary and Forecast -- current day and next 3 days |
Daily after 2200 UTC
|
|
| 8 |
SWXDAYPRE
|
FXXX04
|
3-day Space Weather Predictions |
Daily after 2200 UTC
|
|
| 9 |
SWXWEKHIL
|
FXXX06
|
7-day Space Weather Highlights |
Tuesday, 2212 UTC
|
|
| 10 |
SWXWEKFOR
|
FXXX02
|
27-day Space Weather Forecast |
Tuesday, 2212 UTC
|
|
| 11 |
SWXWEKOUT
|
FXXX05
|
27-day Space Weather Outlook Table |
Tuesday, 2212 UTC
|
|
| 12 |
SWXADVOUT
|
NWXX04
|
Space Weather Advisory Outlook |
Tuesday, 1800 UTC
|
|
| 13 |
SWXADVBUL
|
NWXX05
|
Space Weather Advisory Bulletin |
as needed
|
|
| 14 |
SWXADVMSG
|
NWXX06
|
Space Weather Advisory Messages General messages from SEC |
as needed
|
no archive
|
NWS Codes - a 9 character code where the first 3 letters are SWX for Space Weather (all SEC product codes begin with SWX), the next 3 letters denote the type of product (WAR=warning) or frequency (DAY=daily), and the last 3 letters specify the type of message (IND=indices, BUL=bulletin).
NWS Station ID is KWNP for all SEC Space Weather products.
UTC -- Coordinated Universal Time, same as Universal Time and Greenwich Mean Time.
SEC issues Space Weather Alerts to advise customers of significant solar-geophysical events affecting systems working in or through the space environment. SEC forecasters issue alerts on the occurrence, warnings on the forecast (during the next 72 hours), and summaries after the end for a variety of solar-geophysical phenomena. A description of SEC's Space Weather Alerts, including recent alerts, data, and other displays is online.
All SEC alerts are distribution through NWS systems. See the Space Weather Alerts Table for alert names and NWS codes.
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK05 Serial Number: 114 Issue Time: 2002 Feb 14 1703 UTC ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 Threshold Reached: 2002 Feb 14 1701 UTC Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 UTC Active Warning: NO # Issued by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center # Recent messages, data, and help at http://sec.noaa.gov/alerts/ # Send questions and comments to SWOalerts@noaa.gov
Current Space Weather Indices, issued hourly at 35 minutes past the hour, provides a running summary of key solar-geophysical indices for the current day, allowing customers to routinely appraise recent levels of solar-geophysical activity. May 15, 2003, SEC's primary GOES satellite switches from GOES-10 to GOES-12. June 19, 2003, SEC's primary GOES satellite for energetic protons switches from GOES-8 to GOES-11.
:Product: Current Space Weather Indices curind.txt
:Issued: 2003 Sep 17 2034 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center
# Product description and SEC contact on the Web
# http://www.sec.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Current Space Weather Indices
:Solar_Radio_Flux: 2003 Sep 17
# Learmonth San Vito Sag Hill Penticton Penticton Palehua Penticton
# 0400 1100 1600 1700 2000 2200 2300
245 16 22 20 -1 -1 -1 -1
410 31 34 37 -1 -1 -1 -1
610 41 -1 43 -1 -1 -1 -1
1415 75 63 68 -1 -1 -1 -1
2695 101 118 102 -1 -1 -1 -1
2800 -1 -1 -1 106 -1 -1 -1
4995 149 159 170 -1 -1 -1 -1
8800 244 264 256 -1 -1 -1 -1
15400 565 514 535 -1 -1 -1 -1
#
#
:Energetic_Particle_Flux: 2003 Sep 17 2025 UT
#
# Current Readings
# GOES-11 Proton Flux GOES-12 Electron Flux GOES12 GOES12 Neutron
# ----- Protons/cm2-s-sr ----- -Electrons/cm2-s-sr - X-ray Location Monitor
# >1 MeV >10 MeV >100 MeV >0.6 MeV >2 MeV flux West cts/min
9.33e+01 1.40e-01 1.49e-02 3.94e+05 1.57e+03 B2.3 75 -1
#
#
:Geomagnetic_Values: 2003 Sep 17
#
# Middle Latitude Estimated
#------------- Boulder ------------- ------ Planetary ------
#Running A 03-06-09-12-15-18-21-24 03-06-09-12-15-18-21-24
38 5 5 5 5 5 5 -1 -1 5 5 5 7 7 4 -1 -1
Solar_Radio_Flux
The Solar Radio Flux list contains Central Meridian Passage (local noon) flux values measured at the Dominion Radio Astrophysical Observatory, Penticton, Canada and the US Air Force Radio Solar Telescope Network (RSTN) sites. The RSTN sites are Learmonth, Australia; San Vito, Italy; Sagamore Hill, Massachusetts; and Palehua, Hawaii. The times listed below the Observatory name is the approximate UTC time of measurement. Each RSTN sites measures the solar radio flux within one hour of their local noon. Penticton records values 3 times a day with the 2000 UTC value being closest to local noon.
The output is a table with one row for each frequency and one column for each site. The flux is expressed in units of 10-22 W m-2 Hz-1. Values from Penticton are not corrected for the variable Sun-Earth distance resulting from the eccentric orbit of the Earth around the Sun. Values range from 1 to 999. Missing values are shown as -1. Values are for the current day up until the time of the message.
Energetic_Particle_Flux
The Energetic Particle Flux list contains current readings of the 5-minute averaged integral proton flux (protons cm-2 s-1 sr-1) and integral electron flux (electrons cm-2 s-1 SR-1) as measured by the SEC primary GOES spacecraft for the following energy levels: for protons, >1, >10, and >100 MeV; for electrons, >0.6 and >2 MeV. The current 1-minute averaged value of the GOES x-ray flux reading is listed. The location of the spacecraft is provided in degrees West longitude. Neutron monitor readings measured by the sensor located in Thule, Greenland, are expressed as counts per minute (corrected for barometric pressure).
Geomagnetic_Values
The Geomagnetic indices are the running 24-hour A-index, recomputed every 3 hours, and the 3-hourly K-indices, up to the time of the message (listed under 03 is the value calculated from values measured from 0000 to 0300 UTC), from the Boulder (middle latitude) US Geological Survey (USGS) station monitoring Earth's magnetic field and Estimated Planetary value calculated by the USAF. The estimated planetary K-indices are derived in real time from a network of western hemisphere ground-based magnetometers. K-indices range from 0 (very quiet) to 9 (extremely disturbed). An A-index of 30 or greater indicates local geomagnetic storm conditions. K-indices of 5 or greater are indicative of storm conditions. Missing values are shown as -1.
The 3-hourly Space Weather Conditions and Forecast is issued every 3 hours at about 5 minutes past the hour. This is a repeat of the SEC Geophysical Alert message available on other SEC systems and on WWV and WWVH. The messages contains recent solar and geophysical indices, plus a summary of recent significant activity and a forecast of activity in the next 24 hours.
:Product: 3-hourly Space Weather Conditions and Forecast :Issued: 2002 Feb 06 2105 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center # Product description and SEC contact on the Web # http://www.sec.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 3-hourly Space Weather Conditions and Forecast # Solar-terrestrial indices for 06 February follow. Solar flux 203 and estimated mid-latitude A-Index 16. The mid-latitude K-index at 2100 UTC on 06 February was 3 (21 nT). Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate. Geomagnetic storms reaching the G2 level occurred. Solar radiation storms reaching the S2 level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level occurred. Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected.
Daily Space Weather Indices, issued every 6 hours beginning at 0015 UTC, contains key solar-geophysical indices from the previous UTC day. Note, some values are not available at the time of the initial messages. April 8, 2003, SEC's primary GOES satellite switches from GOES-8 to GOES10. May 15, 2003, SEC's primary GOES satellite switches from GOES-10 to GOES-12. June 19, 2003, SEC's primary GOES satellite for energetic protons switches from GOES-8 to GOES-11.
:Product: Daily Space Weather Indices dayind.txt
:Issued: 2003 Sep 17 1815 UT
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center
# Product description and SEC contact on the Web
# http://www.sec.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Daily Space Weather Indices
#
#
:Solar_Indices: 2003 Sep 16
# SWO Sunspot Penticton Radio 90-day Radio GOES-12 X-ray Stanford Solar
# Number Flux 10.7cm Flux 10.7cm Bkgd Flux Mean Field
89 99 120 B4.0 -999
#
:Solar_Region_Data: 2003 Sep 16
# --------- Flares ---------
# Sunspot Area New Spotted X-ray Optical
# 10E-6 Hemis. Regions Region C M X S 1 2 3 4
160 2 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
#
:Solar_Radio_Flux: 2003 Sep 16
# Learmonth San Vito Sag Hill Penticton Penticton Palehua Penticton
# 0400 1100 1600 1700 2000 2200 2300
245 12 11 13 -1 -1 51 -1
410 29 29 30 -1 -1 30 -1
610 39 -1 42 -1 -1 38 -1
1415 66 59 65 -1 -1 63 -1
2695 91 104 92 -1 -1 -1 -1
2800 -1 -1 -1 99 99 -1 110
4995 144 150 144 -1 -1 164 -1
8800 240 247 251 -1 -1 267 -1
15400 563 523 527 -1 -1 502 -1
#
:Particle_Data: 2003 Sep 16
# GOES-11 Proton Flux GOES-12 Electron Flux GOES12 Neutron
# ---- Protons/cm2-day-sr ---- - Electrons/cm2-da-sr - Location Monitor
# ->1 MeV >10 MeV >100 MeV >0.6 MeV >2 MeV West % of bkgd
1.99e+06 1.15e+04 2.63e+03 1.37e+09 1.57E+06 75 99.5
#
:Geomagnetic_Indices: 2003 Sep 16
# Middle Latitude Middle Latitude
# ----- Fredericksburg ----- --------- Boulder ---------
# A K-indices A K-indices
# 03-06-09-12-15-18-21-24 03-06-09-12-15-18-21-24
15 4 2 2 3 4 3 3 2 36 5 4 5 5 5 5 3 2
# High Latitude Estimated
# --------- College --------- -------- Planetary --------
# A K-indices A K-indices
# 03-06-09-12-15-18-21-24 03-06-09-12-15-18-21-24
69 4 4 6 7 7 6 5 2 37 4 3 5 5 6 5 4 2
Solar_Indices
SWO Sunspot Number: The sunspot number for the indicated date is computed according to the Wolf Sunspot Number equation, R=k (10g+s), where g is the number of visible sunspot groups (or regions), s is the total number of individual spots in all the groups, and k is a variable scaling factor (usually <=1) that indicates the combined effects of observing conditions, telescope, and bias of the solar observers. A sunspot number of zero indicates there were no visible sunspots on that date; a blank indicates that no observations were taken. The sunspot region information used to compute the daily sunspot number incorporates reports from at least one to as many as six observatories. These reports are used to form a composite picture of each individual region, including sunspot number, area and classification, taking into account such factors as the time of observation and the quality of seeing. This composite information is the daily average (evaluated by seeing conditions) obtained from the reporting observatories and may not represent the latest data. It is reported daily in the Solar Region Summary.
Penticton and 90-Day Radio Flux: The 10.7 cm (2800 MHz) full Sun radio flux reported by the Dominion Radio Astrophysical Observatory at Penticton, B.C., Canada on the date indicated. Measurements are made at approximately 2000UTC. Values are in solar flux units of 10-22Wm-2Hz-1 and are not corrected for the variable Sun-Earth distance resulting from the eccentric orbit of the Earth around the Sun. The 90-day radio flux is the mean value for the last 90 days.
X-ray Bkgd Flux: The daily GOES x-ray background flux from SEC's primary GOES satellite. October 4, 2002 -- GOES X-ray Background Flux calculation corrected.
Note: X-ray flux values below the B1 level are not as reliable as energetic electron contamination of the x-ray sensors becomes dominant at low levels. At times of high electron flux at geosynchronous altitude, the x-ray measurements in the low A-class range can be in error by 20-30%.Daily GOES X-ray Background Flux algorithm:
- The 24 one-hour X-ray 1-8Å values are divided into three 8-hour sections
- The minimum for each of these three 8-hour sections is determined; …call them min1, min2, and min3
- The average of the minima from the first and last 8-hour sections is calculated
min_avg = 1/2 (min1 + min3)- Daily Background X-Ray Flux is the smallest of min2 or min_avg
X-Ray_background = minimum of (min2 or min_avg)Stanford Solar Mean Field: SEC stopped distributing the Stanford Solar Mean Field values in October 2000 . This field is now always -999. The Stanford Solar Mean Field represents the mean value of the solar magnetic field expressed in NT, where negative polarity (oriented toward the Sun) or positive (oriented away from the Sun). These measurements continue to be taken at Stanford and are available directly at http://quake.stanford.edu/~wso/meanfld/mf.2000
Solar_Region_Data
Sunspot Area: Sum of the corrected area of all observed sunspots, in units of millionths of the solar hemisphere.
New Regions: the number of new sunspot regions numbered during the UTC day.
Spotted Regions: the number of sunspot regions observed during the UTC day.
Flares: The total number of x-ray and optical and flares observed during the UTC day.
Solar_Radio_Flux
The Solar Radio Flux list contains Central Meridian Passage (local noon) flux values from the Dominion Radio Astrophysical Observatory, Penticton, Canada and the US Air Force Radio Solar Telescope Network (RSTN) sites. The RSTN sites are Learmonth, Australia; San Vito, Italy; Sagamore Hill, Mass.; And Palehua, Hawaii. Each RSTN site measures the solar radio flux within one hour of their local noon. Penticton records values 3 times a day with the 2000 UTC value being closest to local noon. The output is a table with one row for each frequency and one column for each site. The value is the flux, missing values are shown as -1. Values range from 1 to 999.
Particle_Data
The Particle Data list contains daily 5-minute averaged integral proton flux (protons cm-2 s-1 SR-1) and integral electron flux (electrons cm-2 s-1 SR-1) as measured by SEC's primary GOES satellite for the following energy levels: for protons, >1, >10, and >100 MeV; for electrons, >0.6 and >2 MeV. The location of the spacecraft is given in degrees longitude. Neutron monitor readings are measured by a sensor located in Thule, Greenland and are expressed as percent of background. Missing proton and electron values are shown as -1.0e+05. Missing neutron monitor data are shown as -999.9.
Geomagnetic_Indices
Fredericksburg, Boulder, College, and Estimated Planetary A and K Indices: The daily 24-hour A index and eight 3-hourly K indices from the Fredericksburg and Boulder (middle-latitude), and College (high-latitude) USGS stations monitoring Earth's magnetic field. The estimated planetary 24 hour A index and eight 3-hourly K indices are derived in real time from a network of western hemisphere ground-based magnetometers. K indices range from 0 (very quiet) to 9 (extremely disturbed). A indices range from 0 (very quiet) to 400 (extremely disturbed). An A index of 30 or greater indicates geomagnetic storm conditions.
The Summary of Space Weather Observations, issued daily at 0030 UTC, is a summary of the previous day's solar region observations.
:Product: Summary of Space Weather Observations dayobs.txt :Issued: 2002 Feb 12 0040 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center # Product description and SEC contact on the Web # http://www.sec.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Summary of Space Weather Observations # :Solar_Region_Summary: 2002 Feb 11 # Region Location Sunspot Characteristics # Helio Spot Spot Mag. # Num Lat.,CMD Long. Area Extent class count class 9809 S06W76 323 40 1 HSX 1 A 9810 N10W54 301 100 3 CSO 3 B 9811 S26W32 279 70 5 DAO 8 B 9819 S30W06 253 20 3 DSO 2 B 9821 S13W25 272 310 12 EAI 32 BG 9822 N18E26 221 40 5 CAO 7 B 9823 S04W05 252 50 6 DAO 7 B 9824 N21E41 206 130 3 HAX 1 A 9825 N12E43 204 380 14 EKI 16 B 9826 S23E25 222 40 6 DSO 7 B 9827 S25W43 290 10 0 AXX 1 A 9828 S15E50 197 20 1 HSX 1 A
Solar_Region_Summary
Region: The 4-digit region number assigned by SEC to each sunspot group during its disk passage. Note: the region number is the last 4 digits of the official region number. Therefore when it reaches 9999 it will roll over to 0000, e.g. 9998, 9999, 0000, 0001.
Location Helio: Location, in heliographic degrees latitude and degrees east or west from central meridian, rotated to 2400 UTC.
Lat: Heliographic degrees latitude of the center of the sunspot group.
CMD Long: Carrington longitude of the center of the group.Sunspot Characteristics:
Note: The characteristics for each active region are compiled from approximately half a dozen observatories. The sunspot counts are typically higher than those reported in non-real time by the Sunspot Index Data Center (SIDC), Brussels, Belgium, and the American Association of Variable Star Observers.
Space Weather Event Reports, issued daily after 0250 UTC, contain the energetic
space weather events observed the previous day. More
extensive
solar events lists are available online.
:Product: Space Weather Event Reports dayevt.txt :Issued: 2002 Feb 07 0250 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center # Product description and SEC contact on the Web # http://www.sec.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Space Weather Event Reports # :Energetic_Solar_Events: 2002 Feb 06 #Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep 0111 0111 0111 120 0433 0440 0443 9816 S17W48 C8.2 Sf 520 25 II 0451 0509 0513 9816 S17W50 C2.92 SF 180 1126 1132 1141 M1.4 88 1522 1528 1529 600 1704 1707 1711 9816 S11W54 C1.7 SF 320 1719 1719 1719 130 2010 2014 2017 9815 N12E31 C5.3 SF 120
Energetic_Solar_Events
A summary of significant solar events including start, maximum, and end times, region number and location, x-ray and optical classification of flares and significant radio emission. All available data for an event are included in this section if one or more of the following thresholds are reached:
- Class-M or greater x-ray flare,
- Optical flare of importance > 2b,
- Radio burst of > 100 sfu at 245 MHz,
- Radio burst > 100% above background at 2695 MHz,
- Type II or IV sweep frequency burst.
The Daily Space Weather Summary and Forecast, issued daily after 2200 UTC, provides a summary and 3-day forecast of solar-geophysical conditions including solar flare, geomagnetic field, and satellite altitude proton activity.
:Product: Daily Space Weather Summary and Forcast :Issued: 2002 Feb 11 2210 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center # Product description and SEC contact on the Web # http://www.sec.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Daily Space Weather Summary and Forecast # :Solar_Analysis: Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Only low level C-class events observed during the period from Region 9821 (S13W25), 9822 (N18E26), and 9825 (N12E43). Two new regions were numbered today as Region's 9827 (S25W43) and 9828 (S15E50). # :Solar_Forecast: Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. An isolated M-class event is possible from Region 9821 and 9825. # :Geophysical_Activity: Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit were enhanced to moderate levels. # :Geophysical_Forecast: Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active conditions are possible for 13 February with the influence of a high speed stream. The greater than 2 Mev electrons are expected to be enhanced to moderate levels through 13 February.
Solar_Analysis
A summary of significant solar features and activity observed during the reporting period, including characteristics of sunspot groups, magnetic fields, flares, radio bursts, and active filaments associated with significant solar regions. Significant solar limb and disk features, including major filament disappearances, are also included.
Solar_Activity_Forecast
A summary of the potential for solar activity during the next 3 days.
Geophysical_Activity
A description of significant geophysical activity including geomagnetic activity and proton events, polar cap absorption (PCA) events, and satellite-level particle enhancements observed during the reporting period.
Geophysical_Activity_Forecast
A forecast of the level of geophysical activity during the next 3 days.
3-day Space Weather Predictions, issued daily after 2200 UTC, contains a 3-day forecast of solar-geophysical activity including planetary, middle- and high-latitude geomagnetic field conditions; sunspot region-specific solar flare probabilities; and general ionospheric conditions (including polar cap absorption).
:Product: 3-day Space Weather Predictions daypre.txt
:Issued: 2002 Feb 11 2210 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center
# Product description and SEC contact on the Web
# http://www.sec.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-day Space Weather Predictions
#
:Prediction_dates: 2002 Feb 12 2002 Feb 13 2002 Feb 14
:Geomagnetic_A_indices:
A_Fredericksburg 8 5 5
A_Planetary 8 5 5
#
# Predicted 3-hour Middle latitude k-indices
:Pred_Mid_k:
Mid/00-03UTC 3 2 2
Mid/03-06UTC 3 2 2
Mid/06-09UTC 2 2 2
Mid/09-12UTC 2 1 1
Mid/12-15UTC 1 1 1
Mid/15-18UTC 1 1 1
Mid/18-21UTC 1 1 1
Mid/21-00UTC 2 2 2
#
# Predicted 3-hour High latitude k-indices:
:Pred_High_k:
High/00-03UTC 1 1 1
High/03-06UTC 2 1 1
High/06-09UTC 2 2 2
High/09-12UTC 3 2 2
High/12-15UTC 3 2 2
High/15-18UTC 2 2 2
High/18-21UTC 2 1 1
High/21-00UTC 1 1 1
#
# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at Middle Latitude
:Prob_Mid:
Mid/Active 20 15 15
Mid/Minor_Storm 5 5 5
Mid/Major-Severe_Storm 1 1 1
#
# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at High Latitudes
:Prob_High:
High/Active 25 20 20
High/Minor_Storm 10 5 5
High/Major-Severe_Storm 1 1 1
#
# Polar Cap Absorption Forecast
:Polar_cap:
green
#
# Solar
:10cm_flux:
205 210 215
#
:Whole_Disk_Flare_Prob:
Class_M 50 50 50
Class_X 10 10 10
Proton 1 1 1
#
# Region Flare Probabilities for 2002 Feb 12
# Region Class C M X P
:Reg_Prob: 2002 Feb 11
9807 1 1 1 1
9808 1 1 1 1
9809 5 1 1 1
9810 15 1 1 1
9811 25 5 1 1
9814 1 1 1 1
9815 1 1 1 1
9817 1 1 1 1
9818 1 1 1 1
9819 25 5 1 1
9820 1 1 1 1
9821 60 25 1 1
9822 20 5 1 1
9823 25 5 1 1
9824 10 1 1 1
9825 80 30 5 1
9826 25 5 1 1
9827 5 1 1 1
9828 5 1 1 1
Geomagnetic_A_Indices
Predicted daily geomagnetic A-index for Fredericksburg, VA, and daily planetary A-index, predicted for the next 3 days.
Pred_Mid_k, Pred_Hi_k, Prob_Mid, Prob_High
Probability forecast of geomagnetic conditions for middle and high latitudes-the values indicate the probability for at least one 3-hour K index, at the indicated level, for each of the next 3 days.
Active: K = 4.
Minor storm: K = 5.
Major or Severe storm: K > 6.
Polar_cap:
PCAF: A 24-hour forecast of a polar cap absorption (PCA) event. The PCA forecasts are color coded:
SOLAR 10cm_flux
Predicted daily values of the 10.7 cm flux.
Whole_Disk_Flare_Prob
Class M and class X: Probability forecast of the occurrence of one or more class-M or class-X x-ray events for each of the next 3 days. Proton flare: Probability forecast of a significant proton event at satellite altitudes (at least 10 pfu at energies greater than 10 MeV) for each of the next 3 days.
Region_Prob
Class C, M, and X flare: Probability forecast of the occurrence of one or more x-ray flares for the day listed. Proton flare: Probability forecast of a flare that will cause a significant proton event at satellite altitudes (at least 10 pfu at energies greater than 10 MeV).
The 7-day Space Weather Highlights, issued Tuesdays after 2200 UTC, is a plain-language summary of solar and geophysical activity highlights for the previous week. A complete summary of weekly activity and 27-day forecasts since 1997, plus an extensive descriptive, are online as The Weekly.
:Product: 7-day Space Weather Highlights :Issued: 2002 Feb 05 2212 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center # Product description and SEC contact on the Web # http://www.sec.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 7-day Space Weather Highlights # Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 28 January - 03 February 2002 Solar activity was at low levels during most of the period, but briefly rose to moderate levels on 31 January. Activity was low during 28 – 30 January due to C-class flares. Most of these were from Regions 9800 (N08, L = 047, class/area Fkc/600 on 29 January) and 9802 (S15, L = 022, class/area Ekc/780 on 01 February). Both regions were large and magnetically complex, each exhibiting a magnetic delta configuration for a time. However, both began to gradually decay during the second half of the period, though Region 9802 remained magnetically complex. A large filament disappeared from the Sun’s southeast quadrant on 28 January associated with a partial-halo CME. Activity rose to moderate on 31 January due to an M3 X-ray flare at 31/1444 UTC from Region 9787 (S07, L = 130, class/area Dko/470 on 24 January), which was near the west limb. Activity was low during the rest of the period with isolated C-class subflares from Regions 9800 and 9802. Solar wind data were available from the NASA Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft for most of the period. A weak CME shock front passed the spacecraft late on 31 January associated with relatively minor increases in solar wind velocity, temperature, density, and interplanetary field intensity. This passage may have been associated with a partial-halo CME observed near the west limb on 27 January. A second CME passage occurred on 02 February associated with modest increases in velocity and temperature as well as a sustained period of southward IMF Bz with maximum deflections to minus 13 nT. This passage may have been associated with the filament disappearance mentioned above. There were no disturbances during the rest of the period. There were no proton events at geosynchronous orbit during the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels for most of the period. Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet to unsettled levels through 01 February, although there was a sudden impulse at 31/2127 UTC (19 nT, as measured by the Boulder USGS magnetometer). Activity increased to unsettled to minor storm levels early on 02 February then decreased to quiet to unsettled during the latter half of the day. Quiet to unsettled levels prevailed during the remainder of the period.
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity:
A summary of solar activity, solar wind measurements, particle enhancements, and geomagnetic activity observed during the previous Monday through Sunday. In the solar activity summary, solar active regions are identified by the region number, heliographic latitude and Carrington longitude, and modified Zurich sunspot classification/sunspot area in millionths of the solar hemisphere on the date of maximum sunspot area; for example, Region 4421 (N16, L=115, class/area Dki/710 on 27 February). Significant solar activity is discussed in terms of the characteristics of the region of origin, x-ray flare class (C, M, or X), optical classification (Sn, 1b, etc.), radio emission, associated energetic particle emission, and geophysical effects. Solar wind measurements including velocity, density, interplanetary magnetic field orientation/ strength, and solar sector structure are discussed. The characteristics of near-Earth energetic particle events as detected by satellites and ground-based sensors are discussed. Geomagnetic activity, including storms and disturbances is described. Whenever feasible, solar and geomagnetic activity is summarized using standard terms.
Terms used to describe solar activity: See the explanation of category and type of x-ray flare under 3. Three-hourly Space Weather Conditions and Forecast
The letter classification of solar flares used in these definitions is depicted in the table below. This classification ranks solar activity by its peak x-ray intensity in the 0.1 - 0.8 nm band as measured by the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES). This x-ray classification offers at least two distinct advantages compared with the standard optical classifications: it gives a better measure of the geophysical significance of a solar event, and it provides an objective means of classifying geophysically significant activity regardless of its location on the solar disk or near the solar limb, or whether it was observed at all.
SWO X-ray Classification
Classification Peak Flux Range (W m-2)
A < 10-7
B 10-7 < 10-6
C 10-6 < 10-5
M 10-5 < 10-4
X > 10-4X-rays are measured in the range of 0.1 - 0.8 NM The letter designates the order of magnitude of the peak value. The number following the letter is the multiplicative factor. For example, a C3.2 event indicates an x-ray event burst with 3.2x10-6 W m-2 peak flux. Since x-ray bursts are observed as a full-Sun value, bursts below the x-ray background levels are not discernible. The background drops to class A level during solar minimum; only bursts that exceed B1.0 are classified as x-ray events. During solar maximum the background is often at the class M levels, and therefore class A, B, or C x-ray bursts cannot be seen. Data are from the NOAA GOES satellites, monitored in real time in Boulder.
Terms used to describe geomagnetic activity:
The following adjectives are used to describe geomagnetic activity. "A" refers to the 24-hour A index observed at a geomagnetic observatory such as Fredericksburg, VA (middle latitude), and College, AK (high latitude). "K" refers to a 3-hour index derived from the most disturbed horizontal component of the local geomagnetic field. K is a quasi-logarithmic index ranging from 0 (very quiet) to 9 (highly disturbed).
See the explanation of category, A-index range, and typical values under Three-hourly Space Weather Conditions and ForecastStorms can begin either suddenly or gradually. If the beginning is gradual, the reported begin time is the first hour of the period when storm level conditions occurred. Sudden storm commencements (SSCs) are distinctive, abrupt global changes in the magnetic field intensity, followed by storm-level conditions within approximately 24 hours. Sudden impulses (SIs) are also abrupt global changes in the magnetic field, but subsequent activity does not reach storm levels. The times of SIs and SSCs are given to the nearest minute; for gradual commencements, to the nearest hour. An SI becomes an SSC if it is followed by a geomagnetic storm.
The 27-day Space Weather Forecast, issued Tuesdays after 2200 UTC, is a plain-language forecast of solar-geophysical activity. A complete summary of weekly activity and 27-day forecasts since 1997, plus an extensive descriptive, are online as The Weekly.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Forecast :Issued: 2002 Feb 05 2212 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center # Product description and SEC contact on the Web # http://www.sec.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 27-day Space Weather Forecast # Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 06 February - 04 March 2002 Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. There is a fair chance for isolated low-level M-class flares during the period. There will be a slight chance for an isolated major flare during the period. There will be a slight chance for a proton flare during the forecast period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels during most of the period. However, high flux level will be possible during 07 – 10 February. Active conditions will be possible during 06 – 07 February due to recurrent coronal hole effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected during the rest of the period.
Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity:
A plain-language forecast of solar activity for one solar cycle (27 days), particle enhancements, and geomagnetic activity. In the forecast, solar active regions are identified by the region number, heliographic latitude and Carrington longitude, and modified Zurich sunspot classification/sunspot area in millionths of the solar hemisphere on the date of maximum sunspot area; for example, Region 4421 (N16, L=115, class/area Dki/710 on 27 February). Forecast solar activity is discussed in terms of the x-ray flare class (C, M, or X). Possible energetic particle enhancements (electrons at >2 Mev and protons at >10 and >100 MeV) and geomagnetic activity, including the possibility of storms and disturbances, are described. Whenever feasible, solar and geomagnetic activity is summarized using standard terms.
Terms used to describe solar activity, x-ray classification, and geomagnetic activity are listed under the previous product explanation (9. Seven-Day Space Weather Highlights)
The 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table , issued Tuesdays after 2200 UTC, a numerical forecast of three key solar-geophysical indices; 10.7 cm solar radio flux, planetary A index, and largest daily K values. A complete summary of weekly activity and 27-day forecasts since 1997, plus an extensive descriptive, are online as The Weekly.
:Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt :Issued: 2002 Feb 05 2211 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center # Product description and SEC contact on the Web # http://www.sec.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table # Issued 2002 Feb 05 # # UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest # Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index 2002 Feb 06 225 15 3 2002 Feb 07 225 20 4 2002 Feb 08 220 12 3 2002 Feb 09 210 10 3 2002 Feb 10 200 8 3 2002 Feb 11 200 7 2 2002 Feb 12 200 7 2 2002 Feb 13 205 7 2 2002 Feb 14 210 7 2 2002 Feb 15 215 10 3 2002 Feb 16 220 10 3 2002 Feb 17 225 10 3 2002 Feb 18 230 7 2 2002 Feb 19 230 7 2 2002 Feb 20 230 7 2 2002 Feb 21 235 7 2 2002 Feb 22 240 7 2 2002 Feb 23 245 7 2 2002 Feb 24 250 7 2 2002 Feb 25 255 7 2 2002 Feb 26 250 7 2 2002 Feb 27 245 7 2 2002 Feb 28 245 10 3 2002 Mar 01 240 10 3 2002 Mar 02 235 7 2 2002 Mar 03 235 7 2 2002 Mar 04 230 7 2
Radio Flux 10.7 cm: Predicted 10.7 cm (2800 MHz) full-Sun background flux. Values are in solar flux units of 10-22 Wm-2Hz-1 and are not corrected for the variable Sun-Earth distance resulting from the eccentric orbit of the Earth around the Sun.
Planetary A Index: Predicted daily planetary A index. The A index is an index of geomagnetic activity derived from 3-hourly K-indices. A indices range from 0 (very quiet) to 400 (extremely disturbed). A forecast A index of 30 indicates global geomagnetic storm conditions are expected.
Largest Kp Index: Largest daily planetary K index (Kp) expected for the day indicated. The Kp index is an estimated 3-hourly planetary geomagnetic index of activity derived in real time from a network of western hemisphere ground-based magnetometers. Kp indices range from 0 (very quiet) to 9 (extremely disturbed).
Space Weather Advisory Outlook, issued every Tuesday, provide general descriptions of conditions during the past week and an outlook for the next 7 days.
Official Space Weather Advisory issued by NOAA Space Environment Center Boulder, Colorado, USA SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY OUTLOOK #03- 35 2003 September 02 at 10:55 a.m. MDT (2003 September 02 1655 UTC) **** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK **** Summary For August 25-31 Space weather during the week reached minor levels. A geomagnetic storm that began last period was ending on August 25th and only reached category G1 (minor) levels. The geomagnetic storm was cause by high speed solar winds from a moderate sized coronal hole on the sun. Another brief category G1 geomagnetic storm occurred on August 30th due to high speed solar wind. For a list of adverse system effects related to space weather storms, please refer to the NOAA Space Weather Scales. Outlook For September 3-9 Space weather for the next week may reach minor levels. Early in the week a coronal hole with its high speed solar winds may produce category G1 geomagnetic storming. For current space weather conditions please refer to: http://www.sec.noaa.gov/SWN/ http://www.sec.noaa.gov/alerts/ Data used to provide space weather services are contributed by NOAA, USAF, NASA, NSF, USGS, the International Space Environment Services and other observatories, universities, and institutions. For more information, including email services, see SEC's Space Weather Advisories Web site http://sec.noaa.gov/advisories or (303) 497-5127. The NOAA Public Affairs contact is Barbara McGehan at Barbara.McGehan@noaa.gov or (303) 497-6288.
Space Weather Bulletins are issued when conditions occur that are thought to
be of interest to the public.
Official Space Weather Advisory issued by NOAA Space Environment Center Boulder, Colorado, USA SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY BULLETIN #03- 1 2003 May 29 at 02:00 p.m. MDT (2003 May 29 2000 UTC) **** STRONG SOLAR FLARES AND GEOMAGNETIC STORM **** Title: Major solar flares and Moderate to Strong geomagnetic storm A recent series of three major flares have been observed on the Sun. All of these flares have been from a complex sunspot region near the center of the solar disk. The flare events all reached R3 level on the NOAA radio blackout scale. The times of the flare events were 5:07 pm MDT on 27 May (27/2307 UTC), 6:27 pm MDT on 27 May (28/0027 UTC), and 6:47 pm MDT on 28 May (29/0047 UTC). Strong solar wind has been observed in response to the first two coronal mass ejections associated with the first two flare events, with the first passage apparently around 5:55 am MDT on 29 May (29/1155 UTC) and the second around 12:30 pm MDT on 29 May (29/1830 UTC). The strong solar wind has increased geomagnetic activity to strong levels (G3 on the NOAA scale). There is a good chance that there will be additional periods of strong geomagnetic activity during the next 24 hours. In addition to the current disturbances in progress, a coronal mass ejection associated with the third solar flare is likely to pass the earth sometime between midnight and 6:00 am MDT on 30 May 2003, which should also add to the current geomagnetic disturbance. In addition, an S2 solar radiation storm is in progress in association with the major flare activity. G3 geomagnetic storms can lead to problems with electrical power systems including the need for voltage corrections, and triggering of false alarms on some protective devices. These storms also can affect spacecraft operations including surface charging on satellite components, increases in drag for low-Earth-orbit satellites, and corrections for orientation problems. Additional effects include intermittent satellite navigation and low-frequency radio navigation problems, intermittent HF radio, and aurora as low as Illinois and Oregon (typically 50° geomagnetic lat.). R3 radio blackouts result in widespread HF radio communication outages on the dayside of the Earth and can also degrade low frequency navigation signals. S2 solar radiation storms can lead to infrequent single-event upsets in spacecraft operations, small effects on HF propagation through the polar regions, possible small effects on navigation at polar cap locations. Data used to provide space weather services are contributed by NOAA, USAF, NASA, NSF, USGS, the International Space Environment Services and other observatories, universities, and institutions. For more information, including email services, see SEC's Space Weather Advisories Web site http://sec.noaa.gov/advisories or (303) 497-5127. The NOAA Public Affairs contact is Barbara McGehan at Barbara.McGehan@noaa.gov or (303) 497-6288.
The SWXADVMSG message contains changes, additions, and other information of use to NWS space weather customers. SEC urges all NWS and e-mail space weather customers to subscribe to this message.
:Product: Space Weather Advisory Message
:Issued: 2002 Feb 05 2212 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center
# Product description and SEC contact on the Web
# http://www.sec.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# Space Weather Advisory Message
#
Announcement for SEC Alerts customers:
TEST AND IMPLEMENTATION OF NEW ALERTS
Beginning today, February 11, 2002, an operational preview of SEC's
new Space Weather Alerts is available online at:
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/alerts
The new Watches, Warnings, Alerts, and Summaries are now being issued
in parallel with the current operational products, based upon
prevailing space weather conditions and event criteria.
These new products are being issued to the SEC website only, on a
time-permitting basis with priority given to the current operational
products. Users can visit the website periodically, to preview the
new products and formats, in comparison to those based on current
operations. In cases where new or different criteria apply to new
products, they are being issued accordingly. For further information
on the new products and criteria, please refer to the online
documentation available at:
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/alerts/description.html
The scheduled date for full implementation of the new system, when
the new products will replace current ones on all delivery systems,
is: MARCH 12, 2002 at 1700 UTC.
PLEASE NOTE: NO RE-REGISTRATION FOR THE PRODUCTS YOU CURRENTLY
RECEIVE WILL BE REQUIRED! Prior to the March 12 implementation date,
customers who presently receive affected products will get individual
notifications of changes to their product subscriptions that will be
implemented with the new system.
For comments or questions, please e-mail
SWOalerts@noaa.gov
The primary National Weather Service (NWS) distribution system for SEC Space Weather products is the NOAA Weather Wire Service (NWWS) with is a satellite broadcast system. The NWWS web site has descriptions and other information about connecting to the NWWS, including a NWWS brochure. The current system operators are DynCorp. See DynCorp Systems & Solutions NWWS for three options: C-Band Satellite, Ku-Band Satellite, and Value Added Internet service.
SEC's Space Weather Products are also distributed via other NWS Dissemination Systems, including Internet, radio and dedicated land lines.
NWS systems identify products with a NWS Code, WMO ID and Station ID. The NWS code and Station ID appear in the standard message header.
NWS Codes - a 9 character code where the first 3 letters are SWX for Space Weather (all SEC product codes begin with SWX), the next 3 letters denote the type of product (WAR=warning) or frequency (DAY=daily), and the last 3 letters specify the type of message (IND=indices, BUL=bulletin).
WMO IDs for the main products are listed in the Space Weather Products table above. WMO IDs for the individual Alerts and Warnings are on the Alerts Table.
NWS Station ID is KWNP for all SEC Space Weather products.
- NWS message format with standard header. Each message has a standard two line header with the NWS code, Station ID, and date and time of issue (6th day 00:06 UTC). The third line is blank, the fourth and following lines are the product. The format details of each product is described above. Some NWS system append a standard "ending" line, other do not.
ZCZC SWX3HRCON TTAA00 KWNP 060006 :Product: Geophysical Alert wwv.txt :Issued: 2002 Feb 06 0005 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center # # Geophysical Alert Message # Solar-terrestrial indices for 05 February follow. Solar flux 221 and mid-latitude A-Index 17. The mid-latitude K-index at 0000 UTC on 06 February was 3 (36 nT). No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours. No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.
The objective of the Weather Wire products is to present SEC customers with data that are easy to read and contain sufficient supporting information to make the data usable. Formatting conventions are used to product products are human readable and can also be decoded with software.
SEC reserves the right to modify list formats as data or processing changes warrant.
- Messages contain only ASCII-printable characters.
- Data is presented in fixed-field or free-field formats. Data presented fixed-field formats have a maximum of 80 character lines.
- Lines are terminated with a new-line character.
- Leading zeros are not used except for numbers less than 1 (i.e. 0.5); fixed formats are used for alignment (i.e. X flare probabilities 01/01/05), and date and time (see below).
- Dates and times are "year month day hour minute UTC", with a 4-digit year, 3 character month, 2-digit day with leading zeros (05), 4 digit time with leading zeros (0203). All time are UTC.
- Missing data fields are filled with a missing data value is the same unit, for example -1 for integer values -1.00e+05 for e format fields. When there is no data from a whole section, the words "No Data" are used.
Product headers contains the product name, date and time of issue, a credit line, contact information, and a Title. When using these products, or portions of the products, please credit SEC.
:Product: Daily Space Weather Indices dayind.txt :Issued: 2003 Apr 12 1215 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center # Product description and SEC contact on the Web # http://www.sec.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Daily Space Weather Indices #Keyword lines begin with a colon (:) keyword colon (:). Some keywords are followed by a value, others mark the beginning of the text paragraph.
Column headers begin with a number sign (#) and contain names of stations, data headings, and units, spelled
out as completely as possible.Data lines begin with a number or space.
:Solar_Indices: 2003 Apr 11 # SWO Sunspot Penticton Radio 90-day Radio GOES10 X-ray Stanford Solar # Number Flux 10.7cm Flux 10.7cm Bkgd Flux Mean Field 206 202 222 B9.5 -999 :Energetic_Solar_Events: 2003 Apr 11
#Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep
No Data.
March 12, 2002 format and identifier changes
1. NWS header format. For NWS customers, only the Station ID changed to KWNP from KNEC. For SEC wwire-list e-mail customers the following changes were made.
- The beginning (( was removed, the source station is KNWP instead of KBOU or KNEC
- There is a blank line between the header and the message
- The message ends with a single newline instead of 6 new lines and NNNN)).
New NWS message and SEC e-mail format
ZCZC SWX3HRCON
TTAA00 KWNP 040008(multiple line message)
Old NWS message format
ZCZC SWX3HRCON
TTAA00 KNEC 040008(multiple line message)
Old SEC e-mail format
((ZCZC SWX3HRCON
TTAA00 KBOU 040008
(multiple line message)
NNNN))2. New Space Weather Alerts were added and several alert codes changed. The New Space Weather Alerts Table shows alert names and codes. Description: SEC Space Weather Alerts .
3. The 3-hourly Space Weather Conditions and Forecast (SWX3HRCON) message was redesigned. See WWV - Geophysical Alert Message page.
4. NWS users see three new messages, and e-mail users see new NWS codes for these messages: Space Weather Advisory Outlook (SWXADVOUT), and Space Weather Advisory Bulletin (SWXADVBUL), and Space Weather Advisory Message (SWXADVMSG).
5. All products have SEC header changes for consistency and to update information. The number of header lines did not change. Space Weather Alerts, and the SW Advisory Outlook and Bulletin, do not use the standard SEC header.
