Back ||NOAA Home Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr., U.S. Navy (Ret.) Draft Speech as prepared to Weather Risk Management Association June 11, 2004 Slide 1: Cover Slide Good morning everyone. Thank you for that kind introduction and thank you for inviting me here today to speak. I come with specific instructions from my boss, Secretary Evans, who sends his greetings and thanks for all you do to keep commerce and the economy robust and growing. As Secretary Evans pointed out last July in his speech at the Earth Observation summit, the weather risk management industry is growing rapidly. I am amazed at how much it has grown since 1997. I suppose this growth should really come as no surprise to me seeing as how weather and climate affect over one-third of the nation’s economy. So, unless we discover a way to control the weather and temperature in such a way that makes everyone completely satisfied, the need for the service you provide will continue to grow. I’d say the future looks pretty bright for you. It goes without saying that the success of an agency like NOAA is dependent on strong partnerships with all sectors of the economy that we serve. My overarching vision for NOAA is an agency where our science is creating value everyday. That success can only be realized when and stakeholders across the nation our partners gain value from the data, information, and resources we provide. In the true nature of partnerships, I want to hear from you, as well as provide you with a status of where we are in matters of interest to you I will focus my comments on areas where NOAA and the WRMA have had a successful partnership, upcoming improvements you can expect from us, and a few other issues you should be aware of in the future. Thus I look forward to a robust dialogue with you. Slide 2: Video of reporter in bicycle helmet during Isabel Our partnership has been so successful because, in NOAA, you have an agency that understands that weather risk management is more than deciding whether or not to take an umbrella to work in the morning. The man in this video has his own opinion of managing risks due to weather; but I really don’t think a flashy bicycle helmet is the proper way to manage the risk of a hurricane. We both have an intense desire to protect life, property and investments from the harms of weather. Your clients depend on you to help them protect their assets from weather fluctuations and danger. Your clients come from sectors that help sustain the American economy. Because of you, they are able to flourish, help the economy grow, and create more jobs. Given the dependence of the GDP on our products and services, it is no accident that NOAA resides in the Department of Commerce and we share your commitment to translating the best available weather and climate data into a powerful economic engine. Slide 3: WRMA Timeline NOAA recognized the importance of developing a partnership with your industry at a very early stage. About a year after the first open market weather risk transaction was signed, (Sep. 1997) NOAA’s National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service convened a workshop to discuss how NOAA could support the weather risk management industry. Several action items were identified in that first workshop, one of which led to the creation of the WRMA (1999). In the months that followed, NOAA and WRMA opened up a productive dialogue where NOAA focused on specific issues that would help the weather risk management industry grow. In those days, some of the major problems were getting the highest quality data in the fastest time possible and improving climate forecasts. We saw these recommendations as not only a chance to support the weather risk management industry, but also an opportunity to improve as an agency. In October 2001, NOAA's National Weather Service co-sponsored a workshop with WRMA. Your association and other stakeholders made numerous recommendations. We heard you and took action to improve services. Slide 4: Answering Your Request For example, you told us you needed a faster turnaround time for finalized weather data from the National Climactic Data Center. Obviously many of your contracts cannot be executed without finalized, quality assured data, and sometimes we were taking several weeks to provide that information. In response to your request, I’m happy to report that by September, quality-controlled data for Automated Surface Observing Stations (ASOS) will be routinely available (~95% of the time) within a day after the observation is taken and will be immediately posted online. Looking a couple of years into the future, this Integrated Surface Hourly Data Processing System will be expanded to include additional data formats from other weather observation systems. We will also continue to improve significantly quality assurance of this data and metadata. You added your voices to others concerned with problems with the ASOS precipitation readings in freezing conditions. By October, we will install new precipitation gauges at all NWS Local Climatological Data ASOS so the measurement of the liquid equivalent of solid precipitation will be much more accurate. We now issue one-month and three-month climate outlooks and drought outlooks in the morning instead of the afternoon as a direct result of the suggestion by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to have the release coincide with the opening of domestic markets. Per your suggestion, the National Weather Service has established a much-needed data continuity policy to address the need for overlapping observations. You expressed the need for archived forecasts and we are now posting those to the web for easy access and the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is working to provide access to 20 years of hindcast runs for current and forthcoming operational models and ensembles. Slide 5: Further CPC Improvements The CPC acted on another recommendation to prepare and release end-of-month updates to long-range forecasts. CPC’s operational monthly forecasts are currently made with ½ month lead time. For example, the forecast for November 2003 was made around October 15, 2003. An example of this forecast is shown on the left panel. According to this forecast, the western and southwestern part of the U.S. was expected to be warmer (shown in red) while parts of the eastern U.S. were expected to be colder (shown in blue). Based on more recent information and model runs, the monthly forecast can be updated by the end-of-month. In the case of the forecast for the month of November 2003, made with ½ month lead time that it could be updated at the end of October. Such an update is shown in the right panel. This contrasts with the forecast made around October 15, 2003: this forecast has colder temperatures in the west (blue) and has warmer temperatures in the east (red). What actually happened in November 2003 is shown in the middle panel (again, stations with blue indicate colder than normal temperatures, and stations with red indicate warmer than normal temperatures). It is obvious that the updated monthly forecast in the top right is an improvement. CPC experimented with these updates and found that the end-of-month updates had better skill than the ½ month lead forecast. CPC continues to test the end-of-month updates and plans to make the end-of-month updates to the monthly predictions operational at then end of July, 2004. NOAA offers some flexibility in product release time, format, and probabilistic presentation and will make every attempt to accommodate the needs of various sectors, such as WRMA. Slide 6: Fairweather Policy Working with you and other stakeholders makes NOAA a better agency. You challenge us to achieve more and in the end gain more value from science. NOAA has proposed a new policy on partnerships between NWS, the private sector, and the academic/research community. It isn’t too late for you to comment on this policy, the comment period is open until the 30th of June. Please see www.noaa.gov/fairweather for details, and make your opinion known! Slide 7: SHIPS Just last month, NOAAs / NWS National Centers for Environmental Prediction Tropical Prediction Center (NCEP/TPC) implemented a new version of the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS). The new version includes Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite channel 4 imagery to help identify the strength of deep convection near the storm center, and satellite altimetry observations (Atlantic only) that identify areas of the ocean that have very large heat contents, which favor intensification. The refined satellite data improved the 48-hour SHIPS intensity forecasts by about 4% for Atlantic storms west of 50oW, and by about 8% in the eastern North Pacific basin. Smaller improvements were obtained at all forecast periods out to 72 hours. Now 4% may not sound like much, but over the past 25 years, TPC's operational 48-hour intensity forecasts have improved at a rate of only about 3/4% per year. Thus, a 4% improvement in the Atlantic represents about 5 years of progress, and an 8% improvement in the east Pacific represents 10 years of progress. Improvements in the ability to forecast hurricane intensity could lead to improved hurricane watches and warnings, benefiting U.S. residents in coastal regions, and your industry. Slide 8: Climate Reference Network We are currently working to improve our climate record and forecasting abilities - specifically through two projects, the Climate Reference Network and the Cooperative Observation Program (COOP) modernization project. The Climate Reference Network (CRN) is the next generation system for collecting climactic data. CRN stations will provide higher quality data, will be redundant, and will be real-time with information sent via satellite every hour to the National Climactic Data Center in Asheville. Precision is the name of the game in climate monitoring and CRN is built with three platinum resistance thermometers and four precipitation measurement devices to meet that challenge. Slide 9: CRN (Continued, locations) Precision can be as complex as the high-tech monitors in each station, but it can also be as simple as where you locate the station. Currently there are 57 climate monitoring stations deployed across the country, and by September 2006, the network will consist of about 110 stations in 45 of the 50 states. The stations are carefully situated in areas where no development is expected for the next 50 years. This means there will be a high degree of consistency and standardization in the data generated from this project. Slide 10: What about COOP? Now, I must say I am very excited about CRN and quite impressed by its capabilities. That being said, when the idea was first brought to my attention, my first reaction was “What about COOP? Doesn’t it already have this capability?” For those of you not familiar with our Cooperative Observer Program, more affectionately known as COOP, it is the network of around 11,000 weather stations where volunteers from around the country monitor temperature and precipitation. We want to make these thousands of stations operate more as an integrated network and also have them integrate with the CRN. Ultimately the goal is better, more accurate weather forecasts. Better forecasting ability is obviously important to the work you do, but it is also important to the economy as a whole. The Edison Electric Institute estimates that a one-degree improvement in temperature forecast is worth $1 billion to the energy industry. Ultimately the vision for a modernized COOP is to create a modern network around which all surface environment monitoring networks are integrated to provide the highest quality possible real-time weather, water and climate information with an eye on including air quality and biochemical hazard data in the future. In effect, COOP modernization will be the federally funded backbone to the National Cooperative Mesonet that will become NOAA’s Integrated Surface Observing System. The State of Oklahoma has operated the Oklahoma Mesonet for several years now, and we are anxious to use their model in other states and regions. We are even fortunate enough to have the man behind the successful Oklahoma project, Dr. Ken Crawford, joining us to make the National Cooperative Mesonet a reality. This improvement will have far reaching benefits from energy companies being able to better plan for New England winters and avoid price spikes to water managers out West increasing their ability to mitigate drought effects. Slide 11: GEOSS An integrated network across the country will indeed be a powerful tool, but what if we carry that over to a global scale? After all weather and climate do not stop at the U.S. border and certainly business and commerce don’t either. Therefore, it is important to be able to put data collected in the U.S. into a global framework. That is exactly what is happening with the development of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems. As some of you know, the United States has been involved in an international effort – one that currently involves 47 countries, the European Commission, and 29 international organizations – to develop an integrated and sustained global Earth observing system. When complete, such a global system would link virtually every piece of observation equipment at our disposal including sensors deep underwater, weather stations, air quality monitors, tide stations, and satellite data just to name a few. Combined, we would have a vivid picture of the earth unlike any we have ever seen…and it could be delivered in real time right to your personal computer. This global network will prove vital in many areas. It will identify gaps in our global capacity. GEOSS is working towards standardizing observations. As your industry continues to grow around the world, the benefits of GEOSS are obviously apparent. Importantly, it addresses the sharing of observational data. The global outlook for improved data access is good. A number of developed nations, including Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Netherlands and Great Britain are moving towards more open dissemination of critical environmental data. Recent directives adopted by the European Commission are also tending in this direction, and time will tell how effective they will be. Among some major developing nations, particularly China, South Africa and India, movement is beginning towards more active and open sharing of information worldwide. More needs to be done, of course, to explain to many countries that the economic and social benefits of open data access far exceed any realistic expectations for revenue generation from data sales and restrictions on reuse. As Prime Minister Koizumi said in his address at Earth Observation Summit II in Tokyo this past April, “Some people say that environmental protection hinders economic development, but I disagree with them. I think that environmental protection and economic development can both be achieved through the power of science and technology.” Slide 12: GEOSS Benefits I believe GEOSS has the ability to change the way we view, monitor, and manage the planet in much the same way the internet changed the way people interact – the possibilities are literally limitless. Such a system might allow us to predict drought conditions with pinpoint accuracy allowing the agriculture sector to plan in advance to limit the loss to farmers. We’ve already discussed the benefit of improving forecasts by as little as one degree. Consider the impact on the oil and gas industry if we can give them more advanced warning with greater precision. Removing the guesswork from decisions to go offline or not can mean millions of dollars or revenue saved for companies. Developing the global observation system could have profound impact on the weather risk management industry. Achieving global coverage of standardized, verifiable data will obviously help you expand your businesses globally and could perhaps open up new avenues to you such as fisheries and public health. This is not science fiction. In April, I was in Tokyo at a meeting where 43 ministers and heads of national delegations, along with 25 international organizations, agreed on a framework to begin developing a global observation system. A paradigm shift is occurring now causing an incredible amount of political will and excitement to build around the world and this system is well on its way to becoming a reality. Slide 13: Ocean Commission Even here in the United States, support for an integrated observation system is growing. The President’s Commission on Ocean Policy recently released its preliminary report and one of their major recommendations was the development of an earth observing system. This is the first time a Presidential level report on the topic has been commissioned in the last 30 years. Comments have been received from the Governors and stakeholders, but a final version has not been presented to the President. A final policy determination cannot be yet made, but the importance of this report cannot be overestimated. The draft report has 12 critical action items. Some of the major ones are: Strengthen NOAA and improve federal agency structure Implement the national Integrated Ocean Observing System (The Ocean Commission is very interested in GEOSS) Create measurable water pollution reduction goals, particularly for nonpoint sources, and strengthen incentives, technical assistance and other management tools to reach those goals. Reform fisheries management by separating separating scientific assessment and allocation, improving the Regional Fisher Management Council system, and exploring the use of dedicated access privileges. Establish an Ocean Policy Trust Fund based on revenue from offshore energy activity and other new and emerging offshore uses to pay for implementing the recommendations. In an industry so dependent on the ability to reliably observe and predict weather events, you could be important stakeholders in the Commission’s report. It has been a pleasure to represent Secretary Evans here today. I have enjoyed discussing the fruits of our partnership and look forward to your comments on the Fair Weather report. It has been good to be able to describe our successes in getting information to you quicker and of higher quality, and developing policies to ensure the quality of the data. NOAA hopes you like the new updates to the monthly temperature forecasts. The future for CRN and the National Cooperative Mesonet is exciting. And I hope the brief description I gave of GEOSS and the Ocean Commission will whet your appetite to learn more. Thank you very much for this opportunity to speak to you today. I would be glad to answer your questions.