Back ||NOAA Home Statement by Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr. USN (ret.) Undersecretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere “Progress Towards a Coordinated Earth Observation System” 22nd Assembly of the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO Paris, June 26, 2003 Mr. Chairman: It is a great honor and pleasure to be able to address this Assembly, and report on progress that we have made since I spoke to your Executive Council last year. I would also like to offer my perspective on a number of exciting developments that are underway. But before I begin my statement, I want you to know how pleased we are about the U.S. becoming a full participating member of UNESCO. We look forward to working with you and the member nations to meet IOC needs, to achieve IOC objectives, and to seek new opportunities for the IOC. I would like you to know that I will be meeting with the UNESCO Director General Matsuro tomorrow to discuss our interests in the IOC. Earth Science Renaissance. We are at the beginning of an Earth Science renaissance. Science and technology are giving us a remarkable capability to observe and, with resulting observations, understand the Earth as a system. This understanding in turn provides us with a means to improve our predictive capabilities to meet a variety of pressing needs — improving weather forecasts, managing fisheries, mitigating disasters, protecting human life, monitoring crops, and exploring the oceans — just to name a few. All of this begins with observations, and their importance is now being recognized by world leaders. This is a remarkable opportunity. G-8 Action Plan. The meeting of the G-8 leaders earlier this month resulted in what I think is a most notable Action Plan for Science and Technology for Sustainable Development. That plan includes global observation strategies as one of three priority areas. As stated in that Plan, the G-8 will work to strengthen and develop close co-ordination of our respective global observation strategies over the next ten years; identify and fill observational gaps of coverage in existing systems; favor interoperability with reciprocal data-sharing, and develop an implementation plan to achieve these objectives by the time of a Tokyo ministerial conference next May. SBSTA/COP-9. At the same time the G-8 was meeting, SBSTA — the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technical Advice — was planning for the Ninth Meeting of the Conference of the Parties (COP-9) in Milan this coming December. SBSTA, a supporting body for COP-9, reviewed the recently released Second Adequacy Report of the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) with a view toward putting GCOS onto the agenda of COP-9. Specifically, COP-9 will likely decide to invite (1) GCOS and GOOS to report on funding of the initial ocean climate observing system, and (2) GCOS to develop an implementation plan, taking into account the Second Adequacy Report, existing global, regional, and national plans and initiatives, such as the Earth Observation Summit. Earth Observations Summit. The U.S. will host the Earth Observations Summit on July 31 in Washington, D.C, for Ministers of the G-8 and (at last count) 25 other nations, as well as 30 established international organizations. They will discuss at the political level what is needed to commit to building an international, comprehensive, coordinated, and sustained observing system, not just for climate, but the Earth. In addition to the Ministerial meeting, an Ad Hoc Working Group will commence work the day after the Summit on developing an international conceptual framework and ten-year plan. Over the coming year, this group will work on the steps for coordinating and sustaining existing observing systems, addressing issues of data management and standards, and incorporating user requirements. This process will be coordinated with GCOS and the COP-9 process and will feed into a second Summit in Japan in May. Why am I here at the IOC? The IOC, working together with its WMO partner and the Joint Technical Commission on Oceanography and Marine Meteorology, is a logical organization to facilitate implementation of the oceanic elements of a coordinated Earth observing system. And the Ocean Observations Panel for Climate, working with GCOS and GOOS, is a logical organization to address requirements driving their implementation. And this Assembly is an appropriate forum to ensure that there is a means for the timely, full and open exchange of data resulting from the ocean observing systems. How might we proceed? The 2nd GCOS Adequacy Report and our own pending Strategic Plan for Climate Change Science are two reasonable reference points for developing an implementation plan for the ocean climate element of an Earth Observing System. I think we should consider the possibility of agreeing on a set of easily understandable, policy-relevant, science-based questions that could be used to drive requirements for collecting sustained, systematic, global observations of the Earth. Here are some examples of questions that need to be answered, along with what we need to answer them. In answering the following questions, the numbers I have cited for specific observing system elements have been taken directly from the 2nd GCOS Adequacy Report. Sea Level. How fast is sea level rising? What is the projected rate in the future, and what observations do we need to collect in order to reduce the uncertainties? Three oceanic observing systems come to mind as being critical to answering these questions — the Jason-class satellite observations of the surface topography of the oceans, combined with about 90 geocentrically located, real-time reporting GLOSS (Global Sea Level Observing System) sea level stations, and a 3,000-float global Argo array. Warming of the Oceans. How fast are the oceans warming? What is the projected rate in the future, and what observations do we need to collect in order to reduce the uncertainties? For sea surface temperature, a global array of 1,250 surface drifting buoys is needed to complement satellite infrared and microwave radiometers. To describe seasonal changes in upper-ocean heat storage, we need a 3,000-float Argo array. To understand changes in total-water-column heat storage, we need ~27 cross-basin, surface-to-bottom hyrdographic sections taken every decade. Carbon Storage in the Oceans. How fast are the oceans accumulating carbon? What is the projected rate in the future and what observations do we need to collect in order to reduce the uncertainties? For decadal changes in total-water-column carbon storage, carbon measurements can be added to the 27 cross-basin, surface-to-bottom hyrdographic sections that are inventorying heat storage. Air-Sea Fluxes. What are the rates of air-sea exchange of heat, water, and carbon? What are projected rates in the future; and what observations do we need to collect in order to reduce the uncertainties? The observations required here include air-sea flux stations moored at ~29 representative sites globally, combined with two broad-swath satellite sensors capable of measuring surface vector winds. These observations, combined with barometers on the 1250 surface drifting buoys, will contribute to improved Numerical Weather Prediction, which in turn will provide basic information on fluxes globally. Improved Seasonal Forecasts. How can we improve ENSO-based forecasts for North America? To what extent can we generate similar forecasts for other parts of the globe, and how can this help distinguish climate variability from climate change? Satellite-derived surface topography and vector winds, Argo, and an efficient TAO/Triton-like array spanning the global tropics can provide invaluable basic information on seasonal-to-decadal variability as a basis for improving forecasts. Other Questions. There are other questions we could ask. How do the oceans influence the hydrological cycle? How can we characterize the overturning ocean circulation? How does basin-scale variability influence the coastal oceans on regional and local levels? How does climate variability affect marine ecosystems? Where do we go from here? The oceanographic community needs to agree on a process for moving forward to take advantage of these exciting scientific, technical, and policy developments related to Earth observations, and the IOC offers an appropriate forum for doing this. In order to do this, I believe that we need consensus on questions that can be used to drive requirements, which in turn can be used as the basis for determining the mix of observing system elements needed to satisfy those requirements. With consensus on the process, we can — just as we have for Argo — agree among the sponsoring nations how we can build a partnership to meet those requirements. International collaboration is essential. Working together, we can establish — within this decade — critical elements of the Global Ocean Observing System which are of special importance to the IOC and which serve the needs not just for GCOS, but for Earth Science. I believe that the upcoming Earth Observations Summit, hosted by the U.S. on July 31, will be an outstanding opportunity to gain the recognition and enhanced support needed for the Global Ocean Observing System. I urge you to support your Executive Secretary who has accepted our invitation to participate in this watershed event. Thank you very much for your time and attention.