Numerical Modeling
With advances in
computer technology, meteorologists have access to computer generated
forecasts from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. These complex computer
programs mathematically describe the atmosphere's behavior, through physics and
dynamics, and provide forecasts of temperature, pressure, moisture, rainfall, and winds.
A forecaster examines the features predicted by the model to come up with a forecast for that
day or several days.
There are many NWP models that describe the atmosphere. Each one uses a different calculation technique and performs these calculations at a certain spatial and temporal resolution.
Although models are extremely useful to forecasters, they are flawed in many ways. The equations used by the models to simulate the atmosphere are not precise and there are many gaps in the initial data from areas in the mountains or over the ocean.
Research at NSSL is focusing on new approaches for the use of NWP models in operational forecasting. This is accomplished through an examination of:
- higher resolution models
- ensemble model forecasts
- improved methods for the incorporation of observations
- simulated hazardous weather events and their environments
Additional Research and Educational Sites:
Center for Analysis and Predictions of Storms
Weather World 2010's site on severe storm modeling
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