COASTAL FORECAST SYSTEM -- GREAT LAKES

ISSUE

Daily operational activities, management decisions, long-range planning, and regulation in the coastal zone typically require knowledge of a myriad of environmental conditions including weather, water levels, waves, currents, water temperature, chemical composition, and biology. Over the past 30 years major strides have been made in weather observing and prediction, yet we do not have an equivalent forecast system in place for either the unique variations in coastal weather or the corresponding responses in the coastal ocean. In the Great Lakes, physical processes have a major impact on environmental, chemical, and biological processes, influencing activities such as water supply management, waste water management, power plant sites, commercial shipping, recreational and commercial boating and fishing, shoreline erosion, and redistribution of sediments. Planners and managers responsible for aspects of the Great Lakes ecosystems affected by lake circulation, such as transport of toxic materials or nutrients, need better forecasts of these physical processes.

 

APPROACH

The Great Lakes Forecasting System combines data from satellite, land, and lake-based systems with computer models for real-time prediction of the physical status of the Great Lakes, with Lake Erie as the first to be addressed. The system, linking existing models, computer systems, and data networks, is a joint NOAA/academic program at NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory and Ohio State University. The forecasting system consist of four components: data assimilation, modeling, data display, and distribution. The data assimilation component assembles data needed for model input: National Weather Service (NWS) surface and marine observations, NWS wind models, satellite-derived water temperature data, wind forecasts, lake level observations, and other relevant data. The three-dimensional numerical model predicts currents, temperatures, and water levels. Output from the forecasting system includes maps and data sets tailored to display specific information required by particular user groups.

 

PARTICIPANTS (FY95)

Lead: NOAA/OAR/Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory

Institutions:

Michigan

NOAA/Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory

Last Updated: August 22, 2001