Trump, Hill GOP Must Get Along and Produce — Fast

They broke it. Now they own it.

Two interconnected revolutions have brought the country to this juncture: The tea party movement that gave a new breed of confrontational conservative decisive sway on Capitol Hill starting six years ago, and now the extraordinary triumph of the infuriated outsider in the form of Donald J. Trump.

The congressional wing of the GOP and the nation’s 45th president will face an enormously difficult task starting in January. They will have to rapidly blend their remarkably divergent priorities, and their profoundly different ideologies, so that they can set about fulfilling the fundamental promise they do agree on: putting Washington back in good working order.

The younger Republicans who’ve asserted themselves as the party’s balance of power on the Hill, and the outside-the-box Republican who’s just laid claim to the White House, all got where they are by railing against dysfunctional business as usual — a capital where deadlock, fueled with millions of the Beltway insiders’ lobbying dollars, is the acceptable default setting that means nothing gets better for the average American.

Now Trump and the 115th Congress will have just 22 months, until the 2018 midterm election, to prove their capacity for breaking the gridlock they all ran against.

The angry electorate would seem to have no patience whatsoever for anything else. And the GOP’s unified control over the levers of policymaking power leaves them with no excuses.

[Democrats Play 'Trump Card' Over Court Standoff]

A likely first area of agreement would be the Supreme Court.

Trump’s social conservatism may remain suspect to millions of his own supporters on the cultural right, thanks to his evolving view on many issues dear to them during his pre-political career in real estate. But he has been very specific in producing a roster of 21 potential nominees to fill the seat left open with the death of Justice Antonin Scalia, all of them designed to allay concerns of strict constructionists

Majority Leader Mitch McConnell can be counted on to advance any of them as quickly as possible through the confirmation process. And the Democratic minority, which spent all year labeling the GOP as obstructionists for not even considering filling the vacancy, would be hard-pressed to mount a filibuster of their own absent very solid evidence that Trump’s nominee was unqualified or espoused views way outside the judicial mainstream.

A majority of voters, 52 percent in Tuesday’s exit poll, said the economy was their top concern, so the pressure will be on for the new president to come up with a plan for job creation the congressional leadership will buy into.

Given Trump’s surprisingly strong congressional coattails, with looked to keep GOP losses in the House to single digits, it appears more likely than ever that the new president’s frequent critic Speaker Paul D. Ryan will remain on the job and become essential to the advancement of a Trump legislative program.

And while McConnell looks to remain principally a parliamentary mechanic , working to muster the votes to advance whatever the new president proposes, there’s every reason to believe Ryan will want to hold on to his reputation as the intellectual leader of the GOP, certainly at the Capitol if not in all the nation.

[Ryan Already Voted for Trump]

He spent much of his energy this year formulating his “A Better Way” legislative agenda in anticipation of this opportunity, and after having made life difficult for Trump all fall he now faces the difficult task of persuading the new president to embrace much of the Ryan workbook as his own. (On this front members of the House GOP leadership will be counting on the peace-making prowess of their old congressional colleague Mike Pence, the Indiana governor who’s now vice president elect.)

The most obvious area of agreement would be on the most ambitious possible goal — overhauling and simplifying the tax code for the first time in three decades. This was Ryan’s highest aspiration when he was chairman of the Ways and Means Committee, and Trump has talked boldly about streamlining the tax code along with delivering an enormous tax cut.

There’s no immediate agreement, however, between Trump and the congressional mainstream on so many other aspects of economic and fiscal policy.

The president-elect has expressed little interest in holding down the size of budget deficits and has said he wants nothing to with curtailing the growth of Social Security and Medicare, the entitlement programs that are the biggest drivers of long-term fiscal imbalance.

Congressional Republicans, in contrast, are bound together as much as anything by a desire to shrink the size of government and slow the growth of the national debt.

Trump and the congressional GOP have both adopted the repeal-and-replace mantra to describe their approach to the 2010 health care law. But while the first part should be straightforward to accomplish — given the power of the majority to push budgetary bills to enactment under the filibuster-proof procedure known as reconciliation — there’s nothing close to consensus yet on what sort of a medical insurance system ought to supplant Obamacare.

[Clinton, Trump Health Plans Differ in Impact on Uninsured, Cost]

As in so many areas, Trump’s campaign was minimally invested in developing detailed plans for carrying out his so flatly stated aspiration to “make America great again.”

And on the two lynchpins of his campaign, trade and immigration, the boldness and simplicity of his ideas are not in sync with the thinking of the congressional GOP conservative mainstream.

Many in his own party remain wary of imposing the sort of massive tariffs Trump has in mind for reordering the balance of trade, starting with China and Mexico. And, even if Congress goes along with igniting the sort of retaliatory trade war Trump would be tempting, very few economists believe the end result would be a widespread reopening of the Rust Belt’s coal mines, steel mills and other crucibles of the last century’s manufacturing base.

Similarly, many congressional GOP conservatives are much more interested in curbing domestic discretionary spending than almost anything else, so there does not look to be any congressional groundswell for spending tens of billions of dollars over a decade constructing the impenetrable wall along the Mexican border Trump envisions.

Without the mills and mines restarted and without the wall appearing, will the electorate of two years from now be any less angry than they were this week?

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Trump Pulls Off Stunning Upset

After a bruising and scandal-riddled campaign, Americans traded in “hope and change” for “drain the swamp,” choosing Donald Trump as their next president.

The real estate tycoon and former reality television star pulled off arguably the most stunning upset in U.S. political history, riding a wave of popular angst and anger by running a campaign built on vague-but-bold promises and a dearth of policy prescriptions.

The Associated Press called the race shortly after 2:30 a.m. Eastern time, after determining he had topped the 270 Electoral College votes needed to secure the presidency.

Around 2:45 a.m., Trump took to the stage at his campaign headquarters in New York City, telling a crowd that Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton had called him and conceded the race. A conciliatory Trump urged the American people, including his supporters, to thank Clinton for her years of public service. He also congratulated her and the Clinton family on a “very, very hard-fought campaign.”

The president-elect said it is time to “bind the wounds of divisions” and “get together.” He spoke directly to “all” Republicans, Democrats and independents, saying, “it is time for us to come together as one united people.” More broadly, he vowed to seek common ground with other countries after spending months saying America should focus more on domestic matters and less on the rest of the world.

“I pledge to every citizen of our land that I will be president to all citizens of our land,” Trump said, crediting his shocking win on “an incredible and great movement” that put him in the White House.

“The forgotten men and women of our country will be forgotten no longer,” he said, repeating campaign-trail promises to “fix our inner cities” and “rebuild the country’s aging infrastructure,” saying it will become “second-to-none.”

“I promise you that we will not let you down,” Trump declared. “We will do a great job. ... Our work and our movement is only just beginning.”

Trump had predicted victory as he hit several battleground states in a final campaign blitz. He also continued telling supporters that the U.S. political system is tilted toward the elites, and again portrayed himself as the only person who could clean it up.

“It’s a rigged, rigged system,” Trump said in Raleigh, North Carolina. He also kept Washington, D.C., and the media in his cross hairs, vowing to “drain the swamp” once sworn in. At several stops on Monday, crowds chanted that phrase. And in Scranton, Pa., his supporters chanted, “Media sucks!”

[Roll Call’s 2016 Election Guide]

Trump’s victory stunned supporters of Clinton, political pundits and pollsters. Just several weeks before Election Day, numerous polls had her up comfortably, with a growing lead in many swing states.

But the trajectory of the race changed on Friday, Oct. 28, when FBI Director James B. Comey informed Congress that his agency had found more emails potentially related to a private server Clinton used while secretary of State. Though no criminal charges arose, Comey’s decision to go public shifted the momentum toward the Republican nominee and revived questions about her trustworthiness.

Clinton and her campaign — despite help from popular surrogates such as President Barack Obama, Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., first lady Michelle Obama and even Beyonce and Bruce Springsteen — never fully recovered. The return of the email scandal to the headlines and cable news helped drive up Republican turnout while depressing it among Democrats, including young people and African-Americans.

Trump pounced, and didn’t let up.

“And now it’s up to the American people to deliver the justice that we deserve at the ballot box tomorrow,” Trump said on Monday, weeks after suggesting that he would, if elected, ensure Clinton landed in prison over her mishandling of classified information. (Comey said in July she was careless, but that no reasonable prosecutor would bring criminal charges.)

[Comey: No Charges Over New Clinton Emails]

Throughout the GOP primary and general election, Trump painted a portrait of a downtrodden America that hit on hot-button economic issues.

The unemployment rate under Obama declined steadily from 10 percent in October 2009 to 4.9 percent last month. But median household income is about where it was in the late 1980s, just under $54,000 a year. One of the president-elect’s main themes on the trail was a plea to voters to trust him to bring lost manufacturing jobs back to America, ones he claimed were “taken” by China, Mexico and other countries offering cheap labor to U.S. companies.

“Sad, isn’t it? Isn’t it pathetic? North Carolina’s industrial workers have been crushed by Bill Clinton’s signing of NAFTA, supported by ‘crooked Hillary,’” Trump told an audience in the Tar Heel State on Oct. 14. “You’ve lost nearly half of your manufacturing jobs since NAFTA, did you know that? You’ve lost almost half of your manufacturing jobs.”

He was able to convince enough voters in key states that only one man could help: Donald Trump.

“If I win, Day One, we are going to announce our plans to renegotiate NAFTA,” he said to loud applause. “If we don’t get the deal we want, we leave NAFTA and start over to get a much better, a much more fair deal because right now, we’re a one-way highway into Mexico.”

Such Promises, not policy ideas, won the day. And that has even Trump’s supporters scratching their heads about his legislative agenda, unable to fully articulate just what to expect.

But some promise he will be more effective working with Congress than Clinton would have been.

“We need to remember that in this election cycle, November is about who has the best policies to revive our economy and rebuild our military,” Trump adviser and Senate Environment and Public Works Chairman James Inhofe of Oklahoma wrote in a recent Facebook post. “Whether this ultimately benefits Hillary Clinton, it doesn’t mean any less that her policies and philosophy will only hurt America should she get the opportunity to lead it.”

Deputy House GOP Whip Tom Cole of Oklahoma and Washington insiders believe the career businessman would sign into law conservative policy bills, including many based on Speaker Paul D. Ryan’s policy agenda. Add to that list a repeal of Obama’s health care law, and maybe a massive infrastructure upgrade.

“I’m confident we would get what we could through the Senate,” Cole told Roll Call. “And I do think Trump would sign what we were able to get to him, and declare victory.”

Shock swept across the country early Wednesday morning as Trump was declared the next commander in chief. But even as late as Monday afternoon, some Clinton supporters continued their collective refusal to even think about a Trump presidency.

[Trump’s Coronation Completes GOP’s Transformation]

Brad Bannon, a Democratic strategist, last week said his Electoral College math did not add up to Trump in the Oval Office.

“He needs 60 electoral votes from states Obama won,” Bannon said. “I just don’t see that. Hillary has a better shot at winning those battleground states, and holding onto the battleground states it looks like she is leading in.”

California Democratic Rep. Doris Matsui, who co-chairs the Congressional Caucus for Women’s Issues, was more succinct on Monday.

“I haven’t considered that at all,” Matsui told Roll Call just hours before the first polls opened. “Given the campaign and the issues he’s talked about, I don’t think he has a grasp on what is needed to govern this country.”

Tens of millions of Americans disagreed, selecting Trump to do just that, amid signs the United States is as politically and ideology divided as ever. Trump’s ability to bring the country together remained uncertain as his supporters celebrated.Contact Bennett at johnbennett@cqrollcall.com. Follow him on Twitter @BennettJohnT.

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Senate Race Stunner: Trump Was No Drag on the Ticket

Democrats spent months plotting how they could take back the Senate: Win Pennsylvania, steal an unexpected victory in Missouri, and up the score in blue states like New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and Illinois.

All of their paths to a majority — every one of them — was built on the idea that Hillary Clinton would comfortably win the presidential race. As it turns out, that was a fatal flaw.

The almost unfathomable strength of Donald Trump in Tuesday’s election has given Senate Republican candidates a boost they didn’t expect but have happily embraced. It’s not only led them to keep a majority many top GOP officials considered in serious jeopardy, but win races they had long since considered lost.

Instead of losing their majority, the GOP is on track to hold their majority — and possibly lose just one seat.

“Trump’s message resonated very deeply with a huge population of working class voters and their desire for change lifted Republicans across the map on Election Day,” said John Asbhrook, a Senate GOP strategist.

The pro-Trump surge is evident in Indiana, where GOP Rep. Todd Young dispatched former Sen. Evan Bayh thanks to a surge in Republican turnout. (With 94 percent of precincts reporting, Young led by roughly 10 points.)

It was evident in North Carolina, where both parties expected a very tight race only to see Sen. Richard Burr win relative ease. (The GOP incumbent was up seven points with 98 percent of returns counted.)

And it was most evident in the night’s most shocking Senate result, in Wisconsin, where Republican Sen. Ron Johnson crushed former Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold.

A Johnson victory was unthinkable as recently as a month ago, when most Democratic and Republican officials had all but written the race off. Democrats, in fact, considered the race a sure victory since last year, when polls in the state showed Feingold winning by more than 10 points.

Polls showed it tightening late, and outside groups from both parties poured money into the state in the race’s final weeks. Even then, Republicans expressed doubt he could come out on top because of the state’s partisan lean and the headwinds faced in the presidential race.

Instead, Trump won Wisconsin. And Johnson was winning nearly 52 percent of the vote with three-quarter of it counted — seven points clear of Feingold.

“Obviously, Trump exceeded expectations every bit as much as Hillary Clinton fell short of both expectations and Obama’s 2012 results,” said Doug Heye, a Republican strategist.

As of early Wednesday morning, Democrats still had a chance to win a few races, including those in New Hampshire, Missouri, and Pennsylvania.

The discrepancy between Trump’s expected performance and what actually happened was perhaps most evident in the number of seats Democrats thought they needed to win: 50. Though not a majority, the assumption among party strategists was that Vice President Tim Kaine could cast a tie-breaking vote in favor of Democrats.

That won’t be the case if Trump wins, Mike Pence is the vice president, and the GOP can cast the tie-breaking vote.

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The question we’ll know the answer to on Election Day, other than who wins, is whether campaigns matter anymore. Above and beyond the drama of 2016, Hillary Clinton has run a traditional, and by all accounts, solid campaign. For starters, she actually has a campaign, with staffers working in a giant office in Brooklyn, who are also now fanned out in hundreds of field offices across the country.

The Clinton campaign has opened 489 of those offices. They have raised $497 million dollars. She is on track to spend 53 times Trump’s total in Florida ads alone.

When I dropped by a Hillary Clinton field office in Charlotte, N.C., just as early voting was getting underway, there were so many staff and volunteers that training for the ones canvassing spilled out onto the front porch.

Compare that to Donald Trump’s operation, which is hardly an operation at all. Trump’s campaign office in Trump Tower has served mostly as storage for his campaign signs. He has raised $247 million and didn’t spend one dollar on general election ads until late August. He is on his third campaign manager.

Instead of a robust field operation, Trump has relied on the RNC, which has opened 207 offices. When I went to one in Charlotte, it was empty, except for one World War II vet learning to use the phones.

Despite the lopsided campaigns, Trump is within a point or two of Clinton in national polls and splitting battleground states with her, too.

The conclusion after every close race since 2000 has been that “campaigns matter.” If Donald Trump wins, one conclusion has to be that campaigns as we knew them just don’t matter anymore.

Roll Call columnist Patricia Murphy covers national politics for The Daily Beast. Previously, she was the Capitol Hill bureau chief for Politics Daily and founder and editor of Citizen Jane Politics. Follow her on Twitter @1PatriciaMurphy.

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After the presidential election of 2012, the Republican Party had a plan. Mitt Romney won over a majority of white voters, but failed miserably at attracting the diverse electorate that increasingly is America. GOP would have to stand for something other than Grand Old Party. The Growth and Opportunity Project was born, with one goal being outreach.

As then Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal said in stark terms at the Republican National Committee winter meeting in Charlotte, N.C., in January 2013: “We must reject the notion that demography is destiny, the pathetic and simplistic notion that skin pigmentation dictates voter behavior. … The first step in getting voters to like you is to demonstrate that you like them.”

The goals were lofty and judged doable, with Mississippi national committeeman Henry Barbour saying the message should be “the opportunity for people to aspire to reach their dreams whatever that may be.” He touted New Mexico Gov. Susana Martinez as the party’s future: “She’s smart; she’s not afraid.”

What happened in 2016? The short answer: Donald Trump. From the start of his campaign, the rule-breaker’s rhetoric has angered Hispanics, Muslims, African-Americans, women, the disabled and others. And Governor Martinez? Before an eventual truce, Trump criticized her in a visit to her home state, saying she’s “not doing the job.”

His campaign behavior has been the loud embodiment of Republican leadership’s missteps, reaching back to a deliberate Southern strategy in the 1960′s, appealing to opponents of civil rights progress.

Win or lose, to find success in the future, both parties will have to take part in a sincere, inclusive conversation. While Hillary Clinton and Democrats have their own challenges maintaining and strengthening the Obama coalition, Republicans have to repair divisions exacerbated by the “birther in chief.”

Time to rip up that Growth and Opportunity Project report and start from scratch.

Roll Call columnist Mary C. Curtis has worked at The New York Times, The Baltimore Sun and The Charlotte Observer. Follow her on Twitter @mcurtisnc3.

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Throughout this presidential campaign, more than any other in memory, the concept of America has been the subject of our political debate.

Is our system so paralyzed that it needs radical transformation? Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump offered that in ways that should remind us our politics are well within the boundaries of the global political spectrum.

Sanders promised to tear down our power structure and remake it in a more socialist image, pledging to put a restrictor plate on our great capitalist engine and sharing more evenly in the spoils it produces. He favored economic fairness over growth.

Though Trump has appealed to many white working- and middle-class voters who feel that they have lost economic, social and political power, particularly to minorities, his approach of purging minorities speaks much more to social anxiety and prejudice than any real promise of economic empowerment for his voters. His tax plans, more than anything, would redistribute money up the economic chain.

But he promises, in the subtext of his platform, to remake America in the image of a more authoritarian and homogeneous nationalist state. For lack of a more precise term, his appeal is in the idea of a neo-fascist America, which explains why white supremacists have felt so comfortable waving their flags in his honor.

Voters are rightly angry about the establishment’s inability to act in the expressed interests of the people. And yet, on the political right and the political left, they are angry about different things.

Tuesday night (hopefully), we will find out if Trump’s brand of change — of an America remade by a man who promises he “alone” can fix the country — is stronger than Hillary Clinton’s promise to include everyone in making more incremental alterations to our unique and adaptable capitalist republic.

I suspect Americans will choose again to strive for a more perfect union rather than a new national construct.

Roll Call columnist Jonathan Allen is co-author of the New York Times-bestselling Clinton biography “HRC” and has covered Congress, the White House and elections over the past 15 years.

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A scene from a childhood comic book has lodged itself in my brain. A cosmic trickster from another dimension — who was a longtime nemesis of Superman — got elected Mayor of Metropolis by using his otherworldly powers to force the hands of all voters to slip as they were pulling the lever for another candidate.

That’s my Nov. 8 fantasy. That millions of voters — no matter how exasperated with Hillary Clinton — physically cannot force themselves to tick a box marked Donald Trump. Their hands would rebel at the thought of the bilious billionaire giving orders to the Joint Chiefs of Staff, plotting revenge via the IRS and welcoming Girl Scout troops to the White House.

In reality, this will be an election far closer than it should have been because we as a nation have normalized Donald Trump. He has broken so many norms of democracy from bothering to learn the issues to releasing his taxes. His threats against the press make Richard Nixon and Spiro Agnew look stalwart protectors of the First Amendment. We have become so numbed by Trump outrages that he seems statesmanlike any day he obediently reads other people’s words off a Teleprompter.

On election night, I will be looking for lasting signs of rebellion by never-Trump Republicans. If it occurs, it will be in places like Ohio’s Delaware County, the affluent suburbs of Columbus where Mitt Romney received 61 percent of the 2012 vote. Or in Chester and Bucks counties, outside Philadelphia, where Romney ran roughly even with Barack Obama. And it would be glorious if Trump somehow limped home third in deep-red Utah behind Clinton and GOP protest candidate Evan McMullin.

Regardless of the final numbers, the dominant story of 2016 will be how close a wacko former reality show host came to acquiring nuclear weapons.

Roll Call columnist Walter Shapiro is a veteran of Politics Daily, USA Today, Time, Newsweek and the Washington Post. His book on his con-man great-uncle was just published: “Hustling Hitler: The Jewish Vaudevillian Who Fooled the Fuhrer.” Follow him on Twitter @MrWalterShapiro.

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