Obamacare's enrollment numbers are surging—for now.

After a disastrous launch, the law's backers are breathing a sigh of relief as enrollees flock to its insurance exchanges. But the totals are built on a shaky foundation, and at some point soon, the exchange enrollment figures are going to fall, perhaps by more than 1 million people.

Right now, the administration is counting the total number of people who have selected an insurance policy under the law, rather than the number of people who've paid for it.

But at some point, likely this spring, the administration will be forced to disclose how many people are actually paying their premiums—a more accurate, yet undoubtedly lower count of who actually got insured under the Affordable Care Act.

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