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Working Paper
September 8, 2016
CBO released a paper calculating hospitals’ profit margins in 2025 under several illustrative scenarios. Although hospitals could face greater financial pressure, the evidence was not sufficient to assess how hospitals might respond.
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Working Paper
August 3, 2016
This working paper finds evidence for smaller short-term effects on output and employment from tax changes during times of higher unemployment.
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Working Paper
June 2, 2016
How does CBO estimate increases in hurricane damage between now and 2075? This working paper documents the analysis underlying CBO’s report Potential Increases in Hurricane Damage in the United States: Implications for the Federal Budget.
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Working Paper
May 18, 2016
This paper describes an approach to modeling U.S. production of energy from shale resources and the outlook for that production. Production is insensitive to the price of oil in the short run but quite responsive within two to three years.
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Working Paper
December 17, 2015
This working paper analyzes five stylized changes in federal fiscal policy that would close a fiscal gap of 1.8 percent of GDP, and measures the costs that those policy changes would impose on different generations.
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Working Paper
December 7, 2015
This working paper describes the methods and calculations CBO used in its August 2015 baseline projections to estimate the effects of the Affordable Care Act on the labor market.
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Working Paper
November 23, 2015
This paper provides estimates of how Medicare spending per beneficiary for people of different ages and for different types of services has changed in recent years.
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Working Paper
November 19, 2015
Federal receipts and certain federal outlays regularly respond to cyclical movements in the economy. CBO released a working paper on how it estimates the size of those automatic stabilizers, for both past years and future years.
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Working Paper
October 8, 2015
In 2012, the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) reduced fees to refinance FHA-insured mortgages obtained before a retroactive deadline. We estimate that the policy will prevent more than 35,000 defaults of FHA-insured mortgages.
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Working Paper
June 25, 2015
This paper examines trends in China’s energy consumption, the implications of those trends for U.S. households and businesses, and policy options that might help minimize adverse effects.
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Working Paper
June 10, 2015
CBO analyzed a variety of options for federal insurance against the risk of terrorism before the program was reauthorized in January 2015. This paper examines in more detail some options that might be considered in the future.
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Working Paper
March 30, 2015
This study examines policy options that could address the unpriced external costs of transporting freight by truck and by rail, including weight and distance charges, diesel fuel taxes, container fees, and the tire tax.
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Working Paper
February 3, 2015
This paper asks: What models do economists use to estimate the fiscal multiplier (for proposed changes in taxes and government spending)? Why do estimates of it vary widely? And how can economists use those estimates to analyze U.S. economic policy?
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Working Paper
January 29, 2015
By William J. Carrington (CBO) and Bruce C. Fallick (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)
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Working Paper
December 17, 2014
More than 5,000 U.S. military personnel have died in Iraq and Afghanistan, and another 50,000 were wounded in action. A larger proportion of wounded personnel survived their wounds than was the case during the Vietnam War.
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Working Paper
October 8, 2014
Although the Medicare Part D program generally encourages plan sponsors to submit low bids, this paper explores rules relating to low-income beneficiaries that generate a different set of incentives for plans that serve those beneficiaries.
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Working Paper
September 29, 2014
This paper tests whether married women or secondary earners are the marginal worker in a household by examining transitions from the labor force and estimating participation elasticities with respect to the net-of-tax rate for each group.
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Working Paper
September 11, 2014
This paper presents the simulation model that CBO uses to project the budgetary costs of the Federal Housing Administration’s (FHA’s) single-family mortgage insurance program.
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Working Paper
July 30, 2014
CBO releases a companion working paper to its report Competition and the Cost of Medicare’s Prescription Drug Program.
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Working Paper
May 2, 2014
This paper presents two basic innovations: a new type of putty-clay capital, used to model business investment; and the use of investment to identify shares of capital income and market value accruing to tangible and intangible capital.
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Working Paper
February 28, 2014
This paper reviews CBO’s estimates of the effects of changes in federal deficits on national saving and private domestic investment.
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Working Paper
January 27, 2014
Focusing on the U.S. sulfur dioxide allowance market, this paper models allowance prices to determine the influence of market fundamentals and administrative announcements on allowance price level and volatility.
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Working Paper
December 19, 2013
Under a broad-based carbon tax or cap-and-trade program, some of the reduction in U.S. emissions would probably be offset by increases in foreign emissions, a phenomenon known as carbon leakage.
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Working Paper
December 6, 2013
This paper shows that considering an aging population is important in analyzing long-term policy changes that involve intergenerational transfers.
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Working Paper
August 22, 2013
Between 2000 and 2005, spending per beneficiary in the fee-for-service portion of Medicare grew at an annual rate of about 7 percent, but between 2007 and 2010, that rate was closer to 4 percent. What caused that slowdown?
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Working Paper
June 26, 2013
This working paper models decisions about purchasing annuities in a context in which individuals learn new information about their health status over time.
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Working Paper
June 4, 2013
This working paper describes the methods developed to project individual earnings in CBO’s long-term microsimulation model.
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Working Paper
May 7, 2013
Working paper on the Department of Defense Readiness Reporting System.
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Working Paper
May 1, 2013
CBO releases companion working paper to its report Modifying Mortgages Involving Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac: Options for Principal Forgiveness.
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Working Paper
March 18, 2013
This paper reviews the broad contours of total factor productivity growth in the U.S. economy since 1870, highlighting the contribution of various technological innovations to the growth of different sectors of the economy.