LAST WEEK

News & Commentary Weekly Highlights:

• Market Watch: 7 Obamacare Failures That Have Hurt Americans (Thursday)
• Wall Street Journal: A Strange Signal from the Markets: Stagflation? (Thursday)
• Reuters: Homeownership Increasingly Difficult for Average Americans (Thursday)
• Market Watch: The Probability of an April Rate Hike Just Doubled (Wednesday)
• Bloomberg: Helicopter Money Takes Flight as Latest Drastic Monetary Idea (Tuesday)

Top Economic Indicator Highlights:

Gross Domestic Product (final estimate, Q4-2015)

• Real GDP Quarterly Change (annual rate): 1.4%, Previous quarter: 2.0%, Recovery avg.: 2.2%
• Average of GDP and GDI (Gross Domestic Income): 1.1%, Real GDI grew 0.9%
• Noteworthy: While the final estimate remained largely the same compared to last month’s second estimate of fourth quarter GDP, personal consumption expenditures rose more than previously expected. The first estimate of GDP for the first quarter of 2016 will be released on April 28^th.
• Current Forecasts for Q1-2016: Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow forecasts 1^st quarter real GDP growth at 1.4%. Wells Fargo’s current first quarter 2016 forecast for annualized real GDP growth is 1.4%.

JEC Releases:

• Thanks for Sharing: A Sourcebook for the Gig Economy (Tuesday)

THIS WEEK

Upcoming Economic Reports & Releases:

Major Indicators

• International Trade (8:30am, Monday)
• Personal Income and Outlays (8:30am, Monday)
• Pending Home Sales Index (10am, Monday)
• S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (9am, Tuesday)
• Motor Vehicle Sales (Friday)
• Employment Situation (8:30am, Friday)
• Construction Spending (10am, Friday)
• Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Index (10am, Friday)

Reports & Releases

• CBO Analysis of the President’s FY 2017 Budget (2pm, Tuesday)

Chart of the Week:

The chart above shows the number of states that had increased, decreased, or unchanged labor force participation rates by month over the past year. It demonstrates how broad or narrow monthly increases or decreases in labor force participation rates by state are in any given month. Notably, the first two months of 2016 have shown broader increases in labor force participation rates across states compared to 2015. Nationally, labor force participation is still 2.8 percentage points below the level at the start of the recovery.