Friday’s October employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) registered a 161,000 gain in nonfarm payroll jobs. Private payrolls gained 142,000 jobs. The headline unemployment rate (U-3) decreased to 4.9 percent from last month’s 5.0 percent. From last month, the number of employed decreased by 43,000, while the labor force decreased by 195,000 individuals. The labor force participation rate decreased 0.1 percentage point to 62.8 percent. Nonfarm payroll job growth for August was revised up from +167,000 to +176,000 (final estimate). For September, it was revised up from +156,000 to +191,000 (second estimate).
October Jobs Report Data |
Previous September Data |
Revised September Data |
October Forecast |
October Data |
Establishment Survey |
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Nonfarm Payrolls Change |
156,000 |
191,000 |
178,000 |
161,000 |
Private Payrolls Change |
167,000 |
188,000 |
170,000 |
142,000 |
Average hourly earnings (% chg.) |
0.2% |
0.3% |
0.3% |
0.4% |
Household Survey |
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Unemployment Rate (U-3) |
- |
5.0% |
4.9% |
4.9% |
“True” Unemployment Rate (U-6) |
- |
9.7% |
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9.5% |
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) |
- |
62.9% |
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62.8% |
16-64 years old |
- |
73.2% |
- |
73.1% |
25-54 years old |
- |
81.5% |
- |
81.6% |
Employment to Population Ratio (%) |
- |
59.8% |
- |
59.7% |
Labor Force Change |
- |
444,000 |
- |
-195,000 |
Population Growth (16+ years old) |
- |
237,000 |
- |
230,000 |
LABOR TRENDS FOR WORKERS, JOB SEEKERS AND FAMILIES
THE BIGGER PICTUREThe Wall Street Journal’s survey of economists estimates that the number of new jobs needed to keep the unemployment rate unchanged is 145,000 per month. October’s 161,000 payroll growth was just enough to pass this benchmark. Currently, the three-month moving average for payroll jobs growth is 176,000; it is a slowdown relative to the three-month moving averages for September (206,000) and August (233,000). Payroll growth has averaged 181,000 per month thus far in 2016, compared with an average monthly increase of 229,000 in 2015.
UNDERLYING DETAILSOctober’s employment report was a continuation of an extremely underwhelming recovery.
The next BLS employment situation report for initial November employment numbers and revisions to the October and September establishment survey data are scheduled for release on Friday, December 2, 2016, at 8:30 a.m. ET.
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