Congressional China Caucus

China’s Pivot to the Sea: The Modernizing PLA Navy. “Since at least 2004, Chinese security thinking has undergone a steady shift toward emphasizing the maritime domain. As its economy has grown, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has become increasingly dependent on the world’s oceans to sustain its economy and people and to move its products to market. Indeed, to maintain and improve what it considers its “comprehensive national power” (zonghe guojia liliang), the PRC clearly needs access to the world’s seas. Several Chinese analysts have written that major power status rests on the ability to secure the seas. Historically, this was true not only for the United Kingdom and the United States, but also for the Soviet Union. Chinese analysts note that during the Cold War the Soviet Union developed its navy in accordance with Admiral Sergei Gorshkov’s thoughts, most notably in his seminal work, Sea Power of the State.These same analysts also cite Alfred Thayer Mahan’s work on the importance of sea power, noting that Mahan emphasized not only constructing a powerful navy, but also building a strong merchant marine and establishing a strong shipbuilding industry, including ports, shipyards, and the associated human infrastructure of shipwrights, shipyard workers, engineers, etc. Sea power is more than just a matter of building warships. This increasing emphasis on the maritime domain was prominently marked in 2004, when then-Party General Secretary and Central Military Commission Chairman Hu Jintao enunciated the “new historic missions” for the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA). One of these new missions is to provide strategic support in maintaining national interests (wei weizhi guojia liyi tigong youli de zhanlue zhicheng). The national interests are not static. They reflect changes in the nation’s development and overall situation. As China has become more dependent on the seas, its interests have incorporated more maritime elements. Consequently, Hu made it clear that it is essential for the PLA to be able to control the maritime domain.” http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2015/12/chinas-pivot-to-the-sea-the-modernizing-pla-navy

China Has Few Options in Protesting U.S. Arms Sales to Taiwan. “Even as China lashes out at Washington over a $1.83 billion arms package for Taiwan, its options for punishing U.S. companies involved in the sales are limited. This week’s deal, the first arms sales to Taiwan authorized by the Obama administration in four years, quickly drew anger from Beijing, which sees such sales as interference in its sovereignty claims over the self-ruled island. The deal “seriously impairs China’s sovereignty and security,” Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Hong Lei said Thursday. “China’s government and enterprises won’t cooperate with or do business with companies” involved in arms sales to Taiwan. Beijing has often used its economic clout to help defend what it sees as key national interests, whether by imposing punitive measures or offering incentives. It first threatened sanctions against U.S. companies selling arms to Taiwan nearly six years ago. But Beijing has limited means for swaying U.S. defense suppliers, which are barred from military sales to China. “Such threats may work when companies like Boeing are involved,” said J. Michael Cole, a Taipei-based senior fellow with the University of Nottingham’s China Policy Institute. “But Raytheon and other purely defense firms that under U.S. law cannot operate in, or sell to, China? Much less so, evidently.” China could try to apply pressure on U.S. suppliers by attacking their civilian commercial interests, some analysts say, though this may trigger retaliation from the U.S. against Chinese firms—something Beijing can ill afford amid a deepening economic slowdown. Raytheon Co. and Lockheed Martin Corp., the main contractors involved in the latest arms deal, have commercial interests in China. Lockheed Martin’s newly acquired unit Sikorsky Aircraft Corp. sells civilian helicopters in China, while Raytheon has sold civilian air-traffic control systems and provided consultancy services in the mainland. Neither firm immediately responded to requests to comment. China has considered Taiwan a renegade province since 1949, when the Nationalists retreated there after their defeat in a civil war. The U.S. established diplomatic relations with Beijing in 1979, but also passed a law that year obliging Washington to help Taiwan defend itself. U.S. defense companies have sold more than $500 million in weapons to Taiwan since the last big government-brokered deal in 2011, which was valued at $5.9 billion. The latest sale comes just a month ahead of Taiwan elections, in which the opposition Democratic Progressive Party—which attracts supporters of Taiwanese independence—is tipped to regain the presidency, buoyed by public resentment over the ruling Nationalist Party’s push to forge closer economic ties with the mainland.” http://www.wsj.com/articles/china-has-few-options-in-protesting-u-s-arms-sales-to-taiwan-1450373290

Taiwan Arms Deal Enough to Give China Bloody Nose, But No More. “A new U.S. arms package for Taiwan will help boost the self-ruled island's ability to inflict a bloody nose on China in the attempt of an attack, enough to make Beijing think twice before any military adventure. But Taiwan, which is expected to vote in a new government next month less friendly to China, needs advanced weapons such as the latest fighter jets or submarine-making technology if it stands a chance of holding off a concerted Chinese assault before U.S. forces come to the rescue. "The idea is to complicate China's scenarios, to make them pause, to get them to think twice before they attack," said Rupert Hammond-Chambers, president of the U.S.-Taiwan Business Council. China quickly criticized this week's $1.83 billion deal, the first arms sales to Taiwan that the Obama administration has approved in four years, saying it interferes with its sovereignty over Taiwan. The deal includes two Navy frigates, combat systems for mine-sweepers, missiles, amphibious attack vehicles and communications systems. Compared to China's ambitious build-up of its military, the world's largest, Taiwan's arms deals are aimed at survivability. Giving its latest assessment on China's forces in September, Taiwan's defense ministry indicated Beijing could devote 400,000 of its 1.24 million-strong ground force in combat against the island. That would give it a two-to-one advantage against Taiwan's 215,000 full time troops. Taiwan is highly vulnerable to a quick strike, experts say. Chinese fighter jets could scream across the narrow Taiwan Strait in minutes and take out Taiwan's air fields, while China rains down some of the hundreds of missiles it is believed to have targeted at the island. Still, maintaining an updated stockpile of military equipment and munitions - like the items in this week's arms deal - is as important as having "big-ticket" items to sustain Taiwan's self defense, said Shirley Kan, a retired Congressional researcher who has tracked U.S. arms sales to Taiwan since 1990.” http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-taiwan-arms-idUSKBN0U10ZY20151218

The Mind Games Behind Obama Arming Taiwan. “American presidents like to announce major arms sales to Taiwan when they are leaving office. George Herbert Walker Bush announced the sale of nearly $8 billion in hardware, including 150 F-16 fighters and Patriot-derived air defense units, in 1992; Bill Clinton parceled out about $2 billion in defense equipment during his final year in office, 2000; and George W. Bush notified Congress of his intent to sell more than $6.4 billion in defense equipment in 2008. Barack Obama broke this trend by announcing more than $12 billion in arms sales to Taiwan during the in-between years of his first term, in 2010 and 2011. Now approaching its final year in office, the Obama administration has announced its first arms sale to Taiwan in more than four years. And compared with its initial sales, it is uncommonly modest and inherently defensive. No matter how modest or defensive, China can be relied upon to issue furious condemnations with the tenor and bellicosity more typically expected from Pyongyang than Beijing. Ma Xiaoguang, spokesman for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, declared that the latest such sale announced Wednesday threatened his country’s relations with the United States. “We resolutely oppose sales of weaponry or military technology to Taiwan by any country in any form or using any excuse,” he warned during his ministry’s vociferous rebuke. More actively, China is threatening to sanction U.S. companies involved in the arms transfer to Taiwan. The threat of sanctions follows the U.S. executive order crafted in April 2015 to enable the administration to impose targeted sanctions against entities caught in cybertheft. Chinese officials are increasingly spinning their most audacious actions as roughly resembling preexisting U.S. policy. As illustrated by the defensive nature of this arms deal, Taiwan poses no military threat to China, but China poses an increasing threat to Taiwan. As the 2015 Report to Congress of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission noted, “Over the past decade, the balance of power across the Taiwan Strait has shifted significantly in China’s favor; China now enjoys both a quantitative and a qualitative advantage over Taiwan and is capable of conducting a range of military campaigns against Taiwan.” Despite this trend, or perhaps more accurately because of a desire to hasten it, China’s admonitions have maintained their anger and volume over the years no matter how minimal the arms transfer.” http://nationalinterest.org/feature/the-mind-games-behind-obama-arming-taiwan-14664

China Carries Out War Games in South China Sea This Week. “China's military carried out war games in the disputed South China Sea this week, with warships, submarines and fighter jets simulating cruise missile strikes on ships, the official People's Liberation Army Daily said on Friday. China claims almost all of the energy-rich waters of the South China Sea, through which more than $5 trillion of maritime trade passes each year. The Philippines, Brunei, Vietnam, Malaysia and Taiwan have overlapping claims. The U.S. Pacific Fleet Commander on Monday warned of a possible arms race in the disputed South China Sea which could engulf the region, as nations become increasingly tempted to use military force to settle territorial spats. In a front page story, the newspaper said the drill was carried out on Wednesday across "several thousand square kilometers" of waters somewhere in the South China Sea. The forces were split into two teams, red and blue, as military commanders threw various scenarios at them, including an accidental missile strike on a commercial ship operated by a third party, the paper said. The warships also simulated deflecting anti-ship missile attacks, and operating in concert with submarines, early warning aircraft and fighter jets, the report added. China periodically announces such exercises in the South China Sea, as it tries to demonstrate it is being transparent about its military deployments. On Sunday, the Defense Ministry said the navy had recently carried out drills in the South China Sea. It was not clear if the exercises referred to by the newspaper and these drills were the same. China has been at odds with the United States of late over the strategic waterway. Washington has criticized Beijing's building of artificial islands in the South China Sea's disputed Spratly archipelago, and has conducted sea and air patrols near them. Last month, U.S. B-52 bombers flew near some of China's artificial islands and at the end of October a U.S. guided-missile destroyer sailed within 12 nautical miles of one of them.” http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-china-idUSKBN0U109K20151218

Japan Steps Up Military Presence in East China Sea. “Japan is to deploy thousands of troops and build missile batteries on islands in the East China Sea, as officials confirmed for the first time that the defences were designed to check Chinese military influence in the region. In response to US pressure to play a bigger role in deterring increasingly assertive Chinese naval activity in the South China Sea and East China Sea, Tokyo is to position a line of anti-ship and anti-aircraft missile batteries along 200 islands stretching 870 miles (1,400km) from the Japanese mainland towards Taiwan. In addition, Japan will increase the number of military personnel on its islands in the East China Sea by about a fifth to almost 10,000 over the next five years. While China is not usually referred to by name in unclassified defence documents, Japanese officials stated that a push by the conservative prime minister, Shinzo Abe, to boost Japan’s military reach was intended to keep China at bay in the strategically and economically crucial Western Pacific. Once the new military hardware is in place, Chinese ships sailing from their eastern seaboard must pass Japanese missile batteries to reach the Western Pacific, an area Beijing considers vital both as a supply line and for projecting its growing naval power. While Chinese warships are entitled to sail through the area under international law, they will have to do so in plain sight of Japanese missiles, a government official in Tokyo told Reuters. Toshi Yoshihara, a professor at the US Naval War College, said the move would enable Tokyo to limit China’s room for manoeuvre through the East China Sea to the Western Pacific and give the US-Japan alliance more time to respond to a conflict involving China. “You could say Japan is turning the tables on China,” Yoshihara said. Concern over China’s maritime and aerial presence in the East China Sea – including around the disputed Senkaku island chain – mirrors unease over Beijing’s construction of manmade island bases in the contested Spratly archipelago in the South China Sea. Last month, Abe, without naming China, cautioned against attempts to militarise the South China Sea, voicing “serious concerns” over land reclamation in the area.” http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/18/japan-steps-up-military-presence-east-china-sea

Vietnam Builds Military Muscle to Face China. “Vietnam's military is steeling itself for conflict with China as it accelerates a decade-long modernization drive, Hanoi's biggest arms buildup since the height of the Vietnam War. The ruling Communist Party's goal is to deter its giant northern neighbor as tensions rise over the disputed South China Sea, and if that fails, to be able to defend itself on all fronts, senior officers and people close to them told Reuters. Vietnam's strategy has moved beyond contingency planning. Key units have been placed on "high combat readiness" - an alert posture to fend off a sudden attack - including its elite Division 308, which guards the mountainous north. The two countries fought a bloody border war in 1979. The likely flashpoint this time is in the South China Sea, where they have rival claims in the Spratly and Paracel archipelagos. "We don't want to have a conflict with China and we must put faith in our policy of diplomacy," one senior Vietnamese government official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Reuters. "But we know we must be ready for the worst." Most significantly, Hanoi is creating a naval deterrent largely from scratch with the purchase of six advanced Kilo-class submarines from Russia. In recent months, the first of those submarines have started patrolling the South China Sea, Vietnamese and foreign military officials said, the first confirmation the vessels have been in the strategic waterway. Militarily, the tensions are palpable northwest of Hanoi at the headquarters of Division 308, Vietnam's most elite military unit, where senior army officers talk repeatedly about "high combat readiness". The phrase is on billboards beneath images of missiles and portraits of Vietnam's late revolutionary founder, Ho Chi Minh, and its legendary military hero, General Vo Nguyen Giap. Perched between Vietnam's craggy northern mountains and the ancient rice paddies of the Red River Delta, 308 is Vietnam's oldest division and still effectively guards the northern approaches to Hanoi. Reflecting deep-set official sensibilities toward offending Beijing, one senior officer, Colonel Le Van Hai, said he could not talk about China. But Vietnam was ready to repel any foreign force, he told Reuters during a rare visit by a foreign reporter.” http://news.yahoo.com/vietnam-builds-military-muscle-face-china-070538564.html

China Cracks Down on Politically Incorrect Maps. “When it comes to maps, China isn’t messing around. Starting next year, you don’t want to be caught with the “wrong” maps—that is, maps containing content “that endangers the country's sovereignty, safety and interests,” according to a statement by China’s government mapping official Le Weibin. In an effort to “boost” the mapmaking industry—and clamp down on maps that run counter to the government’s stance on issues like Taiwan’s independence and the territorial dispute over the South China Sea—China announced new regulations earlier this year on the creation, distribution, and publication of both print and online maps. The government will be monitoring maps for violations like “errors in compilation” and “leaks of secret geographic information and personal information,” according to China’s official state media, Xinhua. Also included in this new set of regulations, which will replace mapping laws drawn up in 1995, is a section dedicated to regulating the fairly young industry of online mapping. It requires all online mapping data to be hosted by servers inside the country, and all GPS providers  to obtain a cartography certificate. Details remain fairly vague for now, but CCTV News reports that violators can face up to 200,000 yuan, or about $31,000, in fines. Businesses can also have their licenses suspended or revoked. If the violation is deemed serious enough, they can even find themselves booked on criminal charges. But the tough stance on maps isn’t new. The Los Angeles Times reported in October that customs officials at airports often go through travelers’ belongings looking for anything pushing back on China’s official political stances. Scholars, expatriates, and reporters alike have had to abandon maps, globes, and books that rendered Taiwan in a different color than the one used for China or that failed to indicate disputed islands in the South China Sea as the Diaoyu Islands.” http://www.citylab.com/politics/2015/12/china-cracks-down-on-politcally-incorrect-maps/421032/

The Caucus Brief is a daily publication for Members of Congress and Hill Staffers on China news and information compiled by the office of Congressman Randy Forbes, Founder of the Congressional China Caucus.  Email alex.gray@mail.house.gov with tips, comments, or to subscribe/unsubscribe.

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