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Default Would Be A World Wide Catastrophe

Oct 9, 2013

Warren Buffett: "It Ought To Be Banned As A Weapon."

 IMF: "Could Seriously Damage the Global Economy,"

 George W. Bush Treasury Official: "That Would Blow Lehman Out Of the Water."

Macy's CEO: "If And When There Is a Default, We Will All Feel That."

 

THE RANKS OF REPUBLICAN DEFAULT DENIERS CONTINUE TO GROW:

 

BUT ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS LEADERS ARE UNITED: DEFAULT WOULD BE A WORLD WIDE CATASTROPHE.

BANKING AND FINANCIAL LEADERS:

Warren Buffett: "It ought to be banned as a weapon," Buffett, 83, said in an interview with Fortune magazine posted online today. "It should be like nuclear bombs, basically too horrible to use." [Bloomberg, 10/4/13]

Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein:  "While the current government shutdown is unfortunate, the impacts of a debt default would be magnitudes worse and should not even be considered a viable option.  The economic damage associated with default or near-default would be severe and have serious consequences for the recovery of the U.S. and global economy." [Press Release, 10/2/13]

Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan: "There's no debate that the seriousness of the U.S. not paying its debts ... is the most serious thing we have, and we witnessed that in August '11 and you saw the ramifications: a slowdown in the economy," said Brian Moynihan, chief executive of Bank of America. [Reuters, 10/2/13]

PIMCO's Bill Gross:  Bill Gross, the "bond king" at PIMCO, told Bloomberg TV on Tuesday that the goverment shutdown could temporarily shave a few tenths off quarterly economic growth but that breaching the debt ceiling and defaulting on some U.S. government debt would be "catastrophic" and would be felt all over the global economy because of "interconnected relationships that depend on the solvency of the Treasury." A default, he said, would be "unimaginable...you don't want to see that happen." [BuzzFeed, 10/3/13]

Financial Services Forum CEO Rob Nichols: "All of the consequences of an actual default are just severe and unfathomable and unthinkable," said Rob Nichols, the president and chief executive officer of the Financial Services Forum. "If we were to default on our debt, that would probably spook investors, which would dry up overnight lending. You would imagine that accompanying that sort of event, we would be downgraded, which probably would lead to a sharp spike in rates, which would have its own drag on the economy." [American Banker, 10/7/13]

Berkshire Hathaway Vice Chairman Charles Munger: He called the threat of defaulting on the country's obligations "deeply immoral" and criticized the party he has supported. "We issue the reserve currency of the world," Munger, 89, said. "If my Republican friends keep doing this, they're going to pay a terrible price." [Bloomberg, 10/4/13]

Greenlight Capital Head David Einhorn:  David Einhorn, head of hedge fund Greenlight Capital, told Bloomberg TV yesterday that the failure to make headway on a deal to end the shutdown or breaching the debt ceiling was "particularly depressing" and "embarrassing." As for defaulting on the debt, he described it as "unimaginable" and said letting things get so far as a government shutdown "is really bad enough." [BuzzFeed, 10/3/13]

Fifth Third Bancorp Chairman Bill Isaac: "We can't even imagine all the things that might happen, just like Henry Paulson couldn't imagine all the bad things that might happen if he let Lehman go down," said Bill Isaac, chairman of Cincinnati-based Fifth Third Bancorp and a former chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., referring to the former U.S. Treasury secretary. "It would create chaos in financial markets." [Bloomberg, 10/7/13]

Rafferty Capital Markets Vice President of Research Richard Bove: "If they seriously default on the debt, what we're really talking about is a depression." [Yahoo Finance, 10/4/13]

Blue Mountain Capital Managing Partner James Staley: James E. Staley, a managing partner at the hedge fund firm Blue Mountain Capital, said at a conference in New York on Monday that a default could create a crisis that would be worse than the 2008 financial upheaval. That is, paradoxically, why markets have been relatively sanguine. "It would be calamitous on so many different levels," Mr. Staley said. [NY Times, 10/8/13]

BUSINESS LEADERS ACROSS THE COUNTRY:

National Association of Manufacturers President Jay Timmons: "Manufacturers believe the United States must meet our financial obligations to ensure global investors' continuing confidence in the nation's creditworthiness. Our nation has never defaulted in the past, and failing to raise the debt limit in a timely fashion will seriously disrupt our fragile economy and have a ripple effect throughout the world." [Letter to Congress, 10/8/13]

Chamber of Commerce & 251 Business Associations Letter to Congress: "It is not in the best interest of the employers, employees or the American people to risk a government shutdown that will be economically disruptive and create even more uncertainties for the U.S. economy. Likewise, we respectfully urge the Congress to raise the debt ceiling in a timely manner and remove any threat to the full faith and credit of the United States government." [Letter to Congress, 9/30/13]

Business Roundtable Chairman and Boeing CEO W. James McNerney: "I think markets are worried that there is a permanent government-generated volatility that the stock markets or the credit markets really haven't taken into account in the way they price things," Mr. McNerney said. The long-term effect, he predicted, would be "to impair credit markets" as well as "the value of stocks that people have in their pensions and 401(k)s." [NY Times, 10/4/13]

AT&T CEO Randall Stephenson: "It is unthinkable that the United States could default on its financial commitments, and it would be the height of irresponsibility for any public official to consider such a course." [The Hill, 10/4/13]

Macy's CEO Terry Lundgren: "But if and when there is a default, we will all feel that. If you have parents on Social Security, they will be calling you and asking you when their checks are going to come." [Dallas Morning News, 10/4/13]

Honeywell CEO David Cote:  It also would be a "horrible idea" to block a boost in the federal debt ceiling, as some lawmakers vow to do, Cote said. "When you hear people starting to think that maybe we should default or not raise the debt ceiling and we will play chicken with it, are you actually serious?" [Bloomberg, 10/2/13]

REPUBLICAN ECONOMIC LEADERS:

Former Senator Judd Gregg (R-NH): "A default would lead to some level of chaos in the debt markets, which would lead to a significant contraction in economic activity, which would lead to job losses, which would lead to higher spending by the federal government and lower tax revenues, which would lead to more debt." [The Hill, 9/23/13]

American Bankers Association President Frank Keating (R-OK): "If our nation defaults on its nearly $17trillion in debt, the harm is likely to be measured in hundreds of billions of dollars. Beyond the enormous cost to taxpayers, even the slightest uptick in Treasury interest rates would cascade through the economy." [Washington Post, 9/27/13]

Jon Huntsman:  "It's becoming less and less a political issue in reality and more and more of a pure economic issue, which means we have to see it as an economic issue. And when you start bumping up against the debt ceiling, the -- if you think the government shutdown is a big deal, that's a hand grenade compared to a thermonuclear weapon that would be hitting the debt ceiling." [Bloomberg TV, 10/4/13]

George W. Bush Treaury Official Tim Bitsberger: "If we miss an interest payment, that would blow Lehman out of the water." [Bloomberg, 10/7/13]

GLOBAL ECONOMIC LEADERS:

International Monetary Fund: "A failure to promptly raise the debt ceiling, leading to a U.S. selective default, could seriously damage the global economy," the IMF warned in its latest World Economic Outlook, released ahead of its twice-yearly meetings later this week. "Policymakers have shown their determination to keep the global economy away from the precipice. Aside from new cliff events, a growing worry is a prolonged period of sluggish global growth," the Fund added. [Reuters, 10/8/13]

World Bank President Jim Yong Kim: The effects of a default would be "really severe," Jim Yong Kim told USA TODAY's Capital Download, but even a period of uncertainty as the Treasury Department's Oct. 17 deadline approaches could unnerve stock markets and increase borrowing costs for developing countries. [USA Today, 10/8/13]

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke: "A government shutdown, and perhaps even more so a failure to raise the debt limit, could have very serious consequences for the financial markets and for the economy, and the Federal Reserve's policy is to do whatever we can to keep the economy on course." [Reuters, 9/18/13]

ECONOMISTS:

IMF Chief Economist Olivier Blanchard: "It could well be that what is now a recovery will turn into a recession or something worse." [WSJ, 10/9/13]

Former IMF Chief Economist Simon Johnson: "It would be insane to default, but it's no longer a zero-percent probability," [Bloomberg, 10/7/13]

Goldman Sachs Economists Alec Phillips and Kris Dawsey: We estimate that the minimum pullback in spending that would be required to remain under the debt limit for one month without an increase would be equivalent to 1.7% of GDP (annualized). However, if the Treasury decided to set aside interest payments and make other payments in arrears, we estimate it would result in a pullback in primary (i.e., noninterest) outlays of 4.2% of GDP (annualized). In both cases, the effect on quarterly growth rates (rather than levels) could be even greater. If this were allowed to occur, it could lead to a rapid downturn in economic activity if not reversed very quickly." [Business Insider, 10/6/13]

Jeffries Group Money-Market Economist Tom Simons: "This is going to be permanently damaging for business and consumer confidence if this happens. People will never look at the United States Treasury the same ever again." [WSJ, 10/8/13]

Trulia Chief Economist Jed Kolko: It would be "bad -- both for affordability and for consumer confidence." [Bloomberg, 10/7/13]

Grant's Interest Rate Observer Founder Jim Grant: "People have typically turned to Treasuries as a safe haven, but what will happen when they realize it's not safe anymore," said Grant, who has followed interest rates since the 1970s. "Financial markets are all confidence-based. If that confidence is shaken, you have disaster." [Bloomberg, 10/7/13]

 

By: DPCC