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National Bipartisan Commission on the Future of Medicare
GO TO: Medicare HOME | Modeling Task Force Status Report
Summary Table 1.
Two Baseline Scenarios for Medicare Spending
(by selected calendar year)
| Medicare Spending as a Percent of GDP |
|
1970 |
1975 |
1980 |
1985 |
1990 |
1995 |
2000 |
2005 |
2010 |
2015 |
2020 |
2025 |
2030 |
| No Slowdown in Growth of Medicare Spending |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
| Trustees Intermediate |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
| Medicare Spending as a Percent of Payroll \1 |
| No Slowdown in Growth of Medicare Spending |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
8 |
9 |
11 |
14 |
17 |
| Trustees Intermediate |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
4 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
8 |
9 |
10 |
12 |
13 |
| Medicare Spending as a Percent of the Federal Budget (Discretionary Spending Balances the Budget) \2 |
| No Slowdown in Growth of Medicare Spending |
3 |
4 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
11 |
13 |
16 |
19 |
23 |
28 |
33 |
37 |
| Trustees Intermediate |
3 |
4 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
11 |
13 |
16 |
19 |
22 |
25 |
28 |
30 |
| Medicare Spending as a Percent of the Federal Budget (Revenues Balance the Budget) \3 |
| No Slowdown in Growth of Medicare Spending |
3 |
4 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
11 |
13 |
16 |
19 |
22 |
26 |
30 |
33 |
| Trustees Intermediate |
3 |
4 |
6 |
7 |
8 |
11 |
13 |
16 |
19 |
22 |
24 |
26 |
28 |
| Medicare Spending in Trillions of Dollars |
| No Slowdown in Growth of Medicare Spending |
0.007 |
0.015 |
0.036 |
0.070 |
0.108 |
0.180 |
0.247 |
0.363 |
0.537 |
0.817 |
1.258 |
1.949 |
2.972 |
| Trustees Intermediate |
0.007 |
0.015 |
0.036 |
0.070 |
0.108 |
0.180 |
0.247 |
0.363 |
0.536 |
0.801 |
1.148 |
1.611 |
2.212 |
| Average Annual Growth in Spending from Previous Year Shown |
| No Slowdown in Growth of Medicare Spending |
-- |
16.7 |
18.1 |
14.5 |
9.0 |
10.8 |
6.5 |
8.0 |
8.2 |
8.7 |
9.0 |
9.2 |
8.8 |
| Trustees Intermediate |
-- |
16.7 |
18.1 |
14.5 |
9.0 |
10.8 |
6.5 |
8.0 |
8.1 |
8.4 |
7.5 |
7.0 |
6.6 |
| Average Annual Growth in Spending Above the Impact of Demographics (from Previous Year Shown) |
| No Slowdown in Growth of Medicare Spending |
-- |
8.2 |
14.7 |
11.8 |
6.8 |
8.5 |
4.8 |
6.4 |
6.4 |
6.4 |
6.4 |
6.4 |
6.4 |
| Trustees Intermediate |
-- |
8.2 |
14.7 |
11.8 |
6.8 |
8.5 |
4.8 |
6.4 |
6.3 |
6.0 |
4.9 |
4.3 |
4.2 |
|
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Source: Medicare Commission Staff.
Notes: Trustees Intermediate scenario based on Congressional Budget Office (January 1998), using Trustees Intermediate (1997) assumptions.
No Slowdown scenario created as an illustration by Commission staff. It assumes a constant rate of growth in Medicare
spending above the impact of demographics. That rate of growth is roughly consistent with Medicare's spending performance over the last decade.
- Total Medicare spending as a percent of wage and salary disbursements. Under current law, Part A of Medicare is funded by a 2.9 percent payroll tax.
By 2003, when the transfer of much of Medicare's spending for home-health services from Part A to Part B is complete, Part A will account for roughly half of Medicare spending.
- Assumes a roughly balanced federal budget. Discretionary spending frozen 2009-2030 under No Slowdown scenario;
discretionary spending grows by 1 percent a year less than inflation after 2008 under Trustees Intermediate scenario.
- Assumes a roughly balanced federal budget. Revenue increase of 1 percent of GDP in 2010 and an additional 2 percent in 2025 under No Slowdown scenario;
revenue increase of 1 percent of GDP in 2010 under Trustees Intermediate scenario.
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