Congressional China Caucus

Leader Asserts China’s Growing Importance on Global Stage. “Sounding confident after a burst of high-profile diplomacy, President Xi Jinping told Communist Party officials in a major address here over the weekend that China would be nice to its neighbors in Asia but that he would run an active foreign policy and be relentless in promoting China’s rejuvenation onto the global stage. Mr. Xi did not mention the United States by name but took an unmistakable jab at Washington, saying, “The growing trend toward a multipolar world will not change,” a reference to the Chinese view that America’s post-Cold War role as the sole superpower is drawing to a close. China now had the power, he added, to steer world crises and turn them to China’s advantage, a declaration, analysts said, of how Mr. Xi sees China’s growing pre-eminence. This is the second time that Mr. Xi has spoken to the leadership in public about foreign policy — he did so a year ago — but his speech on Saturday, televised by the state broadcaster, CCTV, was more emphatic and sweeping, analysts said. “It reflects Xi’s passion for foreign policy and the fact that he is overseeing the final phase of the rise of China,” said Zhang Baohui, a professor of political science at Lingnan University in Hong Kong. “This is about China’s grand strategy; it’s about everything.” With the six other members of the standing committee of the Communist Party flanking him in chairs, and several hundred high-ranking party officials, military officers and Chinese diplomats brought home from abroad in the audience, Mr. Xi was making his mark as a “foreign policy president,” Mr. Zhang said. Mr. Xi has just completed two months of fast-moving diplomacy: hosting leaders of nearly two dozen Asian and Pacific nations at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit meeting in Beijing; meeting with President Obama in the Chinese capital; and sweeping through Australia, New Zealand and the tiny island of Fiji, bestowing economic gifts along the way. China recently announced the formation of an Asia investment bank envisioned as a rival to the World Bank, and began a $40 billion long-term Silk Road infrastructure project intended to knit Central and South Asia more closely to China. Mr. Xi, particularly in his Australian visit, tried to offer reassurances, stressing that even though China was the “big guy,” as he put it, it was not a threat.” http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/01/world/asia/leader-asserts-chinas-growing-role-on-global-stage.html?_r=0

Essential China Reading. “The Congressional U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission has one job: to provide a realistic view of the relationship, unfiltered by diplomatic niceties. While some of its assessments may be overstated, it always contains important information, and this year’s report is especially sobering. The bipartisan commission of experts—including intelligence veterans, former diplomats and business executives—concludes, “As a result of China’s comprehensive and rapid military modernization, the regional balance of power between China, on the one hand, and the United States and its allies and associates on the other, is shifting in China’s direction.” Across 600 pages there are many more such warnings. By 2020, when the U.S. Navy plans to station 67 submarines and surface ships in the Asia-Pacific (“budget permitting”), China could have 351. Twice this year Beijing appears to have tested a new hypersonic missile vehicle, the WU-14, that “could enable China to conduct kinetic strikes anywhere in the world within minutes to hours.” Yes, Beijing’s reach may exceed its grasp—even the U.S. faces difficulty in fielding a similar system. But the eventual payoff would be huge. Approaching speeds of 8,000 miles per hour, it “could render existing U.S. missile defense systems less effective and potentially obsolete.” Then there’s outer space, where “China likely will be able to hold at risk U.S. national security satellites in every orbital regime in the next five to ten years.” The report quotes U.S. Air Force General William Shelton to explain: “We are so dependent on space these days, we plug into it like a utility. It is always there. Nobody worries about it.” Losing space assets to China’s anti-satellite weapons therefore “would be almost a reversion” to “industrial-based warfare.” The report also bears bad news about America’s vulnerable cyber networks: “China’s cyber espionage continued unabated in 2014, despite a concerted U.S. effort since 2013 to expose and stigmatize Chinese economic espionage.” The commissioners clearly think little of the Obama Administration’s indictment of five Chinese military officers for stealing secrets from U.S. industrial firms: “China’s material incentives for continuing this activity are immense and unlikely to be altered by small-scale U.S. actions.” http://online.wsj.com/articles/essential-china-reading-1417124497

China’s CX-1 Missile Now Exportable. “China’s new CX-1 supersonic anti-ship cruise missile is ready for export to America’s friends and foes alike, with potential markets including Iran, Pakistan and African and South American countries. On display at the recent Airshow China in Zhuhai, the missile resembles India’s BrahMos cruise missile with a large intake in the nose, referred to as the “axial symmetrical inlet” in the brochure. However, that appears to be the only similarity, according to Chinese-language media outlets, which mention differences in wing, guidance vanes and jet vanes of the two missiles. Russia’s NPO Mashinostroyenia (NPOM) and India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation jointly developed the BrahMos, basing it on the NPOM’s Yakhont (P-800 Oniks) missile. Vasiliy Kashin, a researcher at Moscow’s Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, disputed Chinese media reports that denied a connection. He said the CX-1 is likely based in part on the BrahMos surface-to-surface missile, “but Russia did not sell this to China or offer enough data to China to build one.” However, Russia has sold the missile to other states in the region, including Indonesia and Vietnam, “so it is conceivable one or more of those states could have provided some details to China,” he said. Andrew Erickson, a China military specialist at the US Naval War College and coauthor of the book “A Low-Visibility Force Multiplier: Assessing China’s Cruise Missile Ambitions,” said that while the CX-1’s “precise provenance remains uncertain, the overall capabilities of China’s cruise missile industry are clearly significant.” China continues to pursue foreign technological sources actively, “but is able to combine multiple technologies and vectors of inspiration with genuine indigenous capabilities to produce major new systems of its own,” he said.” http://www.defensenews.com/article/20141130/DEFREG03/311300011/China-s-CX-1-Missile-Now-Exportable

China’s Crackdown in Hong Kong May Fuel A Long-Term Democracy Movement. “China’s Communist authorities are nothing if not predictable. With a high-profile international summit hosted by President Xi Jinping this month behind them, they are ready for authorities in Hong Kong to crack down on a pro-democracy protest movement. On Tuesday and Wednesday, thousands of police wielding batons and pepper gas began clearing one of three sit-in sites, arresting hundreds of people — including two of the movement’s top leaders. The regime calculates that President Obama, who struck deals with Mr. Xi on climate change, trade and military exchanges at the summit, won’t react to the crushing of what has been a remarkably determined, two-month-long demonstration in favor of democratic elections by thousands of students and other Hong Kong citizens. Since late September, they have peacefully occupied streets to protest Beijing’s plan to gut the promised election by universal suffrage of Hong Kong’s next chief executive by controlling the nomination of candidates. To residents of the territory, local authorities are pitching the claim that they are actually defending Hong Kong’s vaunted rule of law. The attack on the Mong Kok protest site came after a court was prompted to issue an order on behalf of a group of taxi drivers protesting the obstruction of streets. “Tuesday’s police action demonstrated the rule of law in action,” crowed the Hong Kong edition of the official organ China Daily. It won’t be surprising if the regime’s tactical maneuvering succeeds in the short term. Though Mr. Obama spoke up for the cause of Hong Kong democracy while in Beijing, the administration has been at pains to avoid conflict over the issue. The U.S. consulate in Hong Kong went so far as to issue a statement saying “we do not take sides in the discussion of Hong Kong’s political development.” Absent U.S. leadership, other Western governments have been equally timorous.” http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/actions-by-china-in-hong-kong-may-create-a-long-term-movement/2014/11/27/333e95cc-758f-11e4-9d9b-86d397daad27_story.html

The Caucus Brief is a daily publication for Members of Congress and Hill Staffers on China news and information compiled by the office of Congressman Randy Forbes, Founder of the Congressional China Caucus.  Email alex.gray@mail.house.gov with tips, comments, or to subscribe/unsubscribe.