AS BIPARTISAN negotiations over avoiding the “fiscal cliff” draw nearer, many of President Obama’s core Democratic supporters are urging him to fix the debt through defense cuts and tax increases rather than by tackling Social Security, Medicare and other federal entitlement programs. It’s a reprise of progressive resistance to the entitlement trims Mr. Obama contemplated during the abortive debt-reduction negotiations with House Speaker John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) last year. This time, though, the Democratic base is claiming vindication in the just-completed election.
Fair enough. Mr. Obama won on a pledge to raise more revenue from the wealthy, and labor unions and like-minded groups provided much of the funding and many of the foot soldiers for his campaign. Nevertheless, on this he must tell his political base no. Any serious debt-reduction plan has to include revenue and defense cuts. But no serious one can exclude entitlements.
With Republicans in control of the House and holding 45 votes in the Senate, this is basic political realism. It’s also fiscal realism, as the most recent Congressional Budget Office review of the long-term budget outlook, published in June, explained. Spending on retirement income and health care is headed inexorably higher as the population ages. In 2012, Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid accounted for 10.4 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). All other non-interest federal outlays, defense included, totaled 11.6 percent of GDP. If present policies and population trends continue, the three entitlement programs would grow to 12.9 percent of GDP by 2022, while all other spending would shrink by 4 percentage points as a share of GDP.
Loading...
Comments