Supreme Court likely to vote on health care law Friday
Friday, March 30, 2012
Supreme Court likely to vote on health care law
Friday
By: Richard Wolf, USA TODAY, March 30, 2012
WASHINGTON - The fate of President Obama's landmark health care
law likely will be decided Friday in an oak-paneled conference room
adjoining the chambers of Supreme Court Chief Justice John
Roberts.
There, the nine justices will meet alone to discuss the case
that transfixed Americans for three days of oral arguments this
week. When all have had their say, they will vote in order of
seniority.
That initial decision may be altered as drafts of majority and
dissenting opinions are written, circulated and rewritten, often
many times. It might even be reversed during the lengthy writing
process if one or more justices switch sides.
But one thing almost never changes. For most of the next three
months, only the justices and 39 law clerks - four per justice and
one each for the three living retired justices - will be privy to
the ruling. And even in an age of Twitter and YouTube, it won't
leak.
"I think the Supreme Court is the one institution that doesn't
leak in modern-day Washington, D.C.," says Steven Engel, a lawyer
who served a decade ago as a law clerk to Justice Anthony Kennedy,
a potential swing vote on the health care law.
After court adjourned at 2:24 p.m. Wednesday, the justices met
to discuss Monday's arguments - on whether an 1867 tax law should
block any decision until 2015, when Americans who refuse to buy
insurance would pay penalties. Based on comments Monday, they
likely voted to plow ahead.
Friday, according to tradition, the justices will take their
places around the conference table, then speak and vote. Roberts,
as chief justice, will go first, followed by Antonin Scalia, the
longest-serving justice.
Once the vote has been taken, the senior justice in the majority
will choose the author of the historic decision. That justice may
assign a law clerk - perhaps someone as young as 25 - to write the
first draft, but the justices soon will take over. "This is huge,
and the way it's written will have a lot of implications," says
Carrie Severino, who clerked for Justice Clarence Thomas four years
ago.
There will be multiple opinions. Not only are the justices
likely to split into groups, but the case itself involves many
parts - the tax act's potential impediment, the mandate that most
Americans buy health insurance, the mandate's connection to the
rest of the law, and the expansion of Medicaid.
"There will be a back-and-forth dialogue between the majority
and the dissenters, and changes will happen to both opinions," says
Neal Katyal, the former acting solicitor general, who clerked for
Justice Stephen Breyer nearly 20 years ago. Almost all that will
happen in writing, "which is really good," he says. "The formalized
process helps sharpen the ideas."
In late June, the rulings will be released. Until then, anything
is possible - even some judicious jousting by justices seeking to
persuade a wavering colleague.
Says University of Michigan law professor Richard Primus, who
clerked for Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg 12 years ago, "I would
imagine Justice Kennedy could keep his dance card full for a long
time if he wanted to."