September 20, 2010

{A WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE FROM CONGRESSMAN GREGORY W. MEEKS}

ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

Employment
 
• In the week ended September 11, the four-week moving average of initial unemployment insurance claims (which smoothes weekly volatility) was down 18,750 from four weeks earlier.  Reductions in initial claims suggest the labor market may be gradually improving from August.  However, measures are volatile on a weekly basis, especially around major holidays.  (BLS, CEA)

• In July, there were 4.80 unemployed persons for every job opening, down slightly from 5.10 unemployed persons per opening in June.  This ratio – often interpreted as a measure of labor market slack – is about 20% below its November 2009 peak, a positive development.  (BLS, CEA)

Production
 
• Industrial production (IP) edged up 0.2% in August.  IP has increased 6.2% during the past 12 months.  Manufacturing output, which accounts for most of the index, rose 0.2% in August.  Factory output has risen 6.3 percent over the 12 months ending in August.  (Federal Reserve)

• The Empire State Manufacturing Survey, conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, suggested that manufacturing conditions continued to expand in September, albeit at a slower pace than in August.  Overall, the report indicates continued growth in the manufacturing sector in Q3, but at a more modest pace than the first half of the year.

Consumer Spending
 
• U.S. retail sales rose a better-than-expected 0.4% in August, and are up 3.6% from last year.  Excluding autos, all other retail sales rose 0.6%, after rising 0.1% in July.  (Census Bureau)

Business Investment

• Small-business owners’ economic confidence increased 0.7 point in August to 88.8, according to an index published by the National Federation of Independent Business.

###