The Fix

A half-dozen potential presidential candidates began ramping up their political action committees over the past six weeks as they weigh whether to enter a still-empty race for the Republican nomination in 2012.

Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin's PAC and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich's PAC both picked up steam in their most recent financial reports and outraised the longtime fundraising leader, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.

Palin's Sarah PAC and Gingrich's American Solutions PAC pulled in $469,000 and $314,000, respectively, between Oct. 14 and Nov. 22, while Romney's Free and Strong America PAC raised $285,000. (Several Romney-affiliated state-based PACs collected another $273,000).

Palin used that surge in fundraising to dole out about $250,000 in contributions to GOP candidates in the final two weeks of the campaign. She also spent $65,000 giving copies of her new book to donors.

Romney, who has been steadily contributing to lots of candidates throughout the cycle, gave more than $100,000 to various political committees in the final two weeks of the 2010 campaign. Gingrich's PAC sent about $214,000 to candidates, while Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour's PAC -- named, appropriately, Haley's PAC -- raised $108,000 and sent $63,000 of it to candidates.

Three other potential 2012 candidates with federal PACs gave virtually nothing down the stretch. Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty's PAC raised $140,000 and gave less than $4,000 to candidates, Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee's PAC raised $125,000 and made just one contribution to a mayoral candidate in Arkansas, and Sen. John Thune (S.D.) raised $66,000 and sent $6,500 to candidates. Pawlenty and Huckabee did donate to candidates regularly throughout the cycle, however, and Thune only recently began to weigh a presidential bid.

Romney's PAC has raised $8.8 million this cycle, compared to $5.4 million for Palin, $3.3 million for Pawlenty, $1.8 million for Huckabee, $900,000 for Barbour, $700,000 for Gingrich, who has collected millions more via his American Solutions 527 group, and $540,000 for Thune. Thune also has a Senate campaign committee with more than $7 million in it at last check, but the report for that committee was not immediately available Friday. He can fund much of his political activity through that committee and can transfer all of that money to a presidential bid if he runs.

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EARLIER ON THE FIX
Which Senator will you miss most?
Fast Fix: The problem with attacking Sarah Palin
Who will leave the Senate in 2012?
Campaign committees amass mountains of debt

WHAT YOU MIGHT HAVE MISSED

* The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and National Republican Senatorial Committee enter the 2012 cycle in similar financial position, with both between $5 and $6 million in the red. The DSCC has $713,000 cash and hand and $6.7 million in debt, while the NRSC has $519,000 in the bank and $6 million in debt.

* In a surprise visit to Afghanistan, President Obama asserted that his administration's troop increase has weakened the Taliban.

* Utah Republican Party Chairman Dave Hansen is leaving his current post and is expected to head up Sen. Orrin Hatch's (R-Utah) reelection campaign - a sign of how serious Hatch is taking his 2012 primary campaign. GOP activists unseated Sen. Bob Bennett (R-Utah) at the state party convention this year.

* Jim Johnson, an adviser to Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour (R), is joining the Republican National Committee as a senior adviser.

* Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said her current job will be her "last public position" - i.e. no 2016 presidential run.

* Missouri Gov. Jay Nixon (D) leads Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder (R) by eight points in a prospective 2012 matchup, according to Democratic-leaning automated pollster Public Policy Polling.

WHAT YOU SHOULDN'T MISS

* Potential Florida Senate candidate and state Senate President Mike Haridopolos (R), who is ramping up for a 2012 run against Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.), has admitted to filing incomplete personal disclosure forms. Perhaps more interestingly, an aide to a potential primary opponent, appointed Sen. George LeMieux (R-Fla.), retweeted the news in the sign of a potentially bruising primary ahead.

* Outgoing New York Gov. David Paterson (D) said he's not interested in running for Rep. Charles Rangel's (D-N.Y.) seat if the recently censured congressman were to resign.

* The end may be nearing in the Minnesota governor's race, where state Rep. Tom Emmer (R) promised today that his recount team will withdraw some of the ballots it has challenged. Emmer, who trails by about 9,000 votes, faces long odds and has been challenging many more ballots than former Sen. Mark Dayton (D). He also said he has no plans for a court challenge.

* Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) calls his state's former governor, Mitt Romney, "ill-informed" and suggests he's not providing "adult leadership and bipartisan statesmanship" on the START Treaty issue.

* The Senate votes Saturday (weekend vote!) on the House-passed extension of the Bush tax cuts for the middle class but not income above $250,000. Do any Republicans or Democrats cross over?

THE FIX MIX

Let it be ... washed up.

With Felicia Sonmez and Aaron Blake

It's been a week of farewells this week in the Senate.

Arizona Sen. John McCain (R) gave a poignant -- and rare -- across-the-aisle tribute to Wisconsin Sen. Russ Feingold who lost his re-election bid last month.

Sens. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.) and Sam Brownback (R-Kans.) bid adieu too.

All of which got us to thinking: What departing Senator will you miss the most? Vote below.

In the last few weeks, more and more establishment Republicans have gone public with their concerns about the idea of former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as their party's presidential nominee in 2012.

And yet, all of Palin's potential 2012 opponents have remained silent -- fearing what provoking her loyal (and large) political base might do.

In today's "Fast Fix" video, we explore the challenges of challenging Palin. Don't forget to check out all of our "Fast Fix" daily videos here. And, if you have a topic you want to see us break down in "Fast Fix" just email chris.cillizza@wpost.com with it.

The central storyline of the early days of the 2012 election cycle in the Senate revolves around retirements.

Open seats are, traditionally, more likely to switch parties than contests where the incumbent is seeking reelection so both parties do their darndest in the early days of every election cycle to convince their members to stay put.

That work is ongoing as we write -- literally -- and will continue over the coming weeks and months.

Until senators make their go/no go announcements, we have history to keep us warm in these cold political nights. (Yes, that's weird. But such is the post-election life of a campaign junkie.)

Since 1996, the average number of Senate retirements has been seven; the fewest retirements (four) during that time period came in 2006 while the most (13) happened twice -- once in 1996 and again in 2010.

Of the 13 retirees in 2010, seven were Democrats and six were GOPers. Republicans held all of their open seats while picking up four Democratic seats.

Not a single Democratic senator retired in the 2008 cycle while five Republicans called it quits. Democrats won three of those five GOP-held seats.

Retirements are more likely to hit Democrats harder this time around for two reasons.

First, they will have to defend 23 seats -- 21 Democrats and two independents who caucus with their side -- as compared to just 10 for Republicans.

Second, the fact that just seven Democrats have retired from the Senate over the last four years suggests that the party could be headed for a higher-than-average number or departures this cycle.

Our Line of the ten Senators most likely to retire in 2012 is below. The number one ranked Senator is considered the most likely to bow out before the 2012 election.

The Line is the result of conversations with strategists on both sides of the partisan aisle as well as a careful parsing of public statements the incumbents themselves have made about their future political plans.

To be clear: Some of the people on the Line have either said they plan to or will be seeking reelection. We take them at their word.

But, we also see circumstances -- states where their party is unpopular, the possibility of a top-tier challenge in a primary or general election -- that could lead them to reconsider their current status.

In other words, this Line can -- and will -- change over the next two years.

To the Line!

10. Dick Lugar (R-Ind.): Lugar's office has been beyond emphatic that the Indiana Republican is going to seek reelection. "There is no chance Senator Lugar will retire," adviser Mark Helmke said. "He is running again, raising money and organizing the campaign." That's a strong enough denial to drop the senator down to the bottom of the Line. But, Lugar is going to be 80 years old in 2012, and he continues to take the kind of votes that practically beg for a tea party challenge -- the latest when he was the lone Republican up in 2012 to vote against a ban on earmarks. He's popular right now, but so were Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R) and Sen. Bob Bennett (R-Utah). If a viable primary challenge materializes, Lugar might have to rethink his plans.

9. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah): There's no doubt that Hatch, 76, is gearing up for a tough race from the tea-party wing of the party. His longtime political adviser, Dave Hansen, is expected to announce soon that he's stepping down as chairman of the Utah Republican Party in order to aid Hatch in his bid for a seventh term, and Hatch spokesperson Antonia Ferrier confirmed that the senator is planning to run for re-election. Still, with Rep. Jason Chaffetz sounding more and more like a candidate and the loss of fellow Utah Republican Sen. Bob Bennett at the state convention earlier this year, Hatch will have much to ponder over these next few months. If he does indeed run, Hatch will have to answer to his party's right flank on issues such as his vote for the 2008 Troubled Asset Relief Program. It's worth noting that should Republicans win back the Senate in 2012, Hatch would be poised to take over as chairman of the powerful Senate Finance Committee.

8. Kent Conrad (D-N.D.): Will North Dakota lose its second Democratic senator to retirement in back to back elections? Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-N.D.) passed on running again in 2010, and now Conrad faces a similar decision. The good thing for Conrad is that, unlike Dorgan, he doesn't face a potential matchup with popular governor and soon-to-be-senator John Hoeven (R). On the other hand, if Conrad was intent on running for reelection, wouldn't Democrats have given him the plum Agriculture Committee chairmanship? That would have been a real selling point for a reelection campaign. Conrad's office is staying quiet, saying any announcements will be made in his home state. But the senator said recently that he needs to decide "whether or not I want to do this another eight years."

7. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.): Lieberman's path to a fifth term is a difficult one. It's a near certainty that a serious Democrat -- Rep. Chris Murphy, Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz, Ted Kennedy Jr. -- will run, making it virtually impossible for Lieberman to win a primary. And, both former Rep. Rob Simmons and former World Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon are seen as possible candidates for Republicans. Lieberman could well get squeezed out if he tries again to run as some sort of independent. Retirement may be the more appealing option.

6. Daniel Akaka (D-Hawaii): The 86-year-old junior senator from Hawaii has repeatedly stated that he's running for re-election in 2012, citing his seniority in the Senate as a major advantage for the state. Akaka spokesperson Jesse Broder Van Dyke also points out that Hawaii's senior senator, Daniel Inouye (D), who was born four days before Akaka, won re-election last month with over 74 percent of the vote. Still, Akaka could have a formidable opponent in outgoing Gov. Linda Lingle (R), who has said that she's seriously considering a bid and will make a decision in mid-2011. Could a Lingle candidacy change Akaka's calculus?

1. In the waning days of the 2010 midterms, campaign committees in both parties amassed millions of dollars in debt as they made last-minute decision in races across the country, according to reports filed late Thursday night with the Federal Election Commission.

Both the Republican National Committee and the Democratic National Committee showed upwards of $15 million of debt in financial statements covering expenditures and disbursements from Oct. 14 to Nov. 22.

And, both spent more -- $24.7 million spent by RNC, $30.3 million spent by DNC -- than they raised in the reporting period.

But, while the DNC ended November with $9.7 million in the bank, the RNC showed just $1.9 million on hand. That meager cash total -- particularly when compared to how much debt the RNC is carrying -- affirms the "cashflow challenge" that the committee's chief administrative officer acknowledged in emails earlier this week.

It remains to be seen how the RNC's cash position will impact Chairman Michael Steele's decision on whether or not to seek a second term early next year.

On the House side, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee ended the period with $19.5 million in debt and just $3 million on hand. The National Republican Congressional Committee showed $12 million debt and $4.7 million in the bank.

For the month (or so) covered by these "post-general" reports, the DCCC spent an eye-popping $55 million as compared to $31 million for the NRCC. That spending edge in the closing days of the campaign did little to alter the results; Republicans picked up 63 House seats and re-took the majority.

(The DCCC also vastly outraised the NRCC in the period -- collecting $33 million to just $13 million for the GOP.)

Neither the National Republican Senatorial Committee nor the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee had released their fundraising reports as of press time

There's nothing new about the campaign committees ending elections with debt. But the size of the debts carried by the committees this time around speaks to the challenges posed with a widened playing field in the House and Senate in the final weeks of the campaign.

2. Arizona Democratic Rep. Gabrielle Giffords is widely regarded as a potential challenger to Sen. Jon Kyl (R) in 2012, but thanks to a difficult 2010 reelection bid, she starts out the 2012 cycle in tough financial shape.

According to FEC reports filed Thursday, Giffords was forced to spent down nearly all of her $2 million war chest at the end of the 2010 campaign, leaving her with just more than $300,000 in the bank for her 2012 campaign - be it against Kyl or for reelection to the 8th district.

Giffords saw her funds depleted more than any other potential 2012 Senate candidate, but she wasn't alone. Rep. Charlie Dent (R-Pa.), who some see as a potential challenger to Sen. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) in 2012, had to spend nearly all of the $2.3 million he raised this cycle and was left with just $140,000 in the bank.

Others were able to stockpile cash while they cruised to reelection.

Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-Mass.) has $702,000 left over in case he wants to challenge Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.). That's much better than Rep. Michael Capuano (D-Mass.), who ran in the special election primary last year and had just $144,000 in the bank as of Nov. 22.

Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) had $847,000 on hand for a possible challenge to Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio); Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah) had $179,000 in the bank in case he runs a primary against Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah); Rep. Connie Mack IV (R-Fla.) had $424,000 for a race against Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.); and Rep. Denny Rehberg (R-Mont.) had $594,000 for a campaign against Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.).

3. South Carolina Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham on Thursday became the latest person to float the idea that outgoing Wisconsin Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold may launch a primary challenge against President Obama in 2012.

"I like Russ, and he may run against Obama in 2012," Graham told conservative radio show host Laura Ingraham.

There has been some speculation since Feingold lost his re-election bid last month that the three-term senator may challenge mount a challenge to Obama from the left. Most of the chatter has centered on Feingold's Election Night concession speech, in which he told supporters, "So, it's on to the next fight. It's on to the next battle. It's on to 2012. And it is on to our next adventure - forward!"

Feingold has repeatedly pushed back against such rumors, and his office again issued a statement Thursday night unequivocally ruling out a White House bid.

"Senator Feingold is not running for President in 2012," a Feingold spokesperson said. "Any suggestion he is thinking of running, planning to run, or interested in running is untrue. Senator Feingold is a strong supporter of President Barack Obama and wants to see him reelected in 2012."

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EARLIER ON THE FIX

Fast Fix: The last Kennedy?
Sarah Palin, the "lamestream" media and its limits
John Ensign: Political Survivor?

WHAT YOU MIGHT HAVE MISSED

* Federal Election Commission fundraising numbers are in for the PACs run by potential GOP presidential candidates and the big winner, at least this time, is former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney raised $285,000 for his federal PAC between Oct. 14 and 22, while Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty's (R) Freedom First PAC raised $140,000. Romney also raised $273,000 for his state-level PACs. Previously, Palin was reported to have raised $469,000, a total that was aided by her book tour.

* The National Republican Congressional Committee ended the 2010 election with $12 million in debt and $4.7 million in the bank, according to a committee source.

* The House has passed an extension of the Bush tax cuts for the middle class, but not for the wealthiest Americans. It passed by a vote of 234-188 but is thought to be dead on arrival in the Senate, where Republicans have promised a filibuster.

* Other notable FEC reports filed Tuesday: Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-Mass.) had $702,000 leftover for a potential run at Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.); Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) had $847,000 in the bank for a potential run at Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio); and Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-Ariz.) had $302,000 in the bank for a potential run at Sen. Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.), after spending heavily down the stretch in a tough reelection race.

* Former Maryland Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend (D) is forming a new Democratic-leaning group called American Bridge, which seeks to be a counter-balance to GOP-aligned groups like American Crossroads and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.

* Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is putting some distance between himself and Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele, calling for an overhaul of the committee's leadership.

WHAT YOU SHOULDN'T MISS

* Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) raised more than $13 million and spent $11 million on her successful reelection bid this year, and she had $2 million leftover - all numbers that most Senate candidates would be happy with. At the same time, she has shown little interest in a challenge to Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) in 2012. Does Bachmann change her tune now that her leadership bid fell through?

* The Club for Growth issued a statement today praising new Missouri GOP Senate candidate Sarah Steelman, while also making reference to former Sen. Jim Talent's (R-Mo.) votes "to raid the Social Security Trust Fund, for the infamous Bridge to Nowhere earmark, and for other pork-laden budget busters." The Club is laying a marker in case Talent gets in the primary.

* Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal's (R) job approval rating has dropped from 68 percent to 55 percent in the latest Southern Opinion and Media Research poll. He's a long ways away from being vulnerable in next year's reelection race, but it's a bad sign for his national ambitions if his numbers drop further.

* Democratic Governors Association Executive Director Nathan Daschle and Political Director Ray Glendening are leaving the committee to start a new "grassroots social-political start-up." Stay tuned.

* Republicans have won at least a share of control of the New York state Senate, with two races yet-to-be-determined. The GOP's gains there mean Democrats will not have full control over the redistricting process -- a big victory for the GOP in such a big state.

* GOP pollster Glen Bolger is guaranteeing that Republicans will maintain control of the House after the 2012 cycle.

THE FIX MIX

Hard to bring down a Gopher.

With Felicia Sonmez and Aaron Blake

Earlier this week, FixAaron penned a fascinating piece about the last of the Kennedy clan leaving public office -- Rhode Island Rep. Patrick Kennedy (D) will retire at the end of the the lame duck congressional session -- and speculating about which members of the first family of Democratic politics might step forward in the not-too-distance future.

The topic was so irresistible -- and interesting -- that we decided to dedicate our "Fast Fix" video to the subject. You can see the results below.

And, don't forget to check out all of our "Fast Fix" daily videos here. And, if you have a topic you want to see us break down in "Fast Fix" just email chris.cillizza@wpost.com with it.