November 30, 2010

A WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE FROM CONGRESSMAN GREGORY W. MEEKS

ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

Employment and Earnings

• In the week ending November 20, initial UI claims decreased by 34,000 to 407,000.  Markets expected a much smaller drop to 435,000.  Initial claims are now 37% below their March 2009 peak. (Employment and Training Administration)

• The four-week moving average of initial UI claims (which smoothes weekly volatility) was 436,000, down 18,000 from four weeks earlier.  This is the eleventh  consecutive such decline.  The four-week moving average is now at its lowest point since August 2008.  (Employment and Training Administration)

• Real disposable personal income (DPI) rose 2.5% over the past twelve months and rose 0.3% in October.  (Commerce Department)

Economic Growth
               
• Real GDP rose 2.5% at an annual rate in the third quarter, revised up from the 2.0% advance estimate. The revision was due to upward revisions to consumer spending (0.18 percentage point, p.p.), exports (0.16 p.p.), and state and local government investment (0.13 p.p.). These were partially offset by a downward revision to inventory investment (0.14 p.p.).  The revised composition of Q3 real GDP growth is more balanced and suggests stronger prospects than did the advance estimate, as exports were revised up while inventory investment was revised down.   (Commerce Department)

Consumer Spending

• Over Black Friday weekend, the average shopper spent $365.34, up 6.4% from last year’s average of $343.31. Total spending reached an estimated $45.0 billion, the Washington-based NRF said in a statement, citing a survey conducted by BIGresearch. Shoppers visited more stores and websites over Black Friday weekend than a year ago. According to the survey, 212 million shoppers visited stores and websites over Black Friday weekend, up from 195 million last year. (National Retail Federation)

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