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PDFDATA
     
A Budgetary Analysis of NASA's
New Vision for Space Exploration
  September 2004  


Cover Graphic


Notes

Unless otherwise indicated, all dollar figures in this report are in 2005 dollars, and all years referred to are federal fiscal years, which run from October 1 to September 30.

Numbers in the text and tables may not add up to totals because of rounding.

The cover photo of the moon is by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. The photo was taken on July 21, 1969, by the Apollo 11 astronauts after taking off from the moon on their return journey to the space ship Columbia prior to its return to Earth. This was the astronauts' final sight of the moon before they began docking procedures with Columbia.





                
Preface

On January 14, 2004, President Bush announced a new vision for human and robotic space exploration that he named "A Renewed Spirit of Discovery." The goal of those activities is to advance U.S. scientific, security, and economic interests through a robust exploration program in space. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) budget request for fiscal year 2005, as well as a projected budget through 2020, included substantial changes relative to previous plans to reorient the agency's programs to support the objectives of the exploration vision.

This Congressional Budget Office (CBO) study--prepared at the request of the Subcommittee on Science, Technology, and Space of the Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee--assesses the implications of the new vision for both the content of NASA's future exploration programs and the funding that might be needed to execute them. The study also analyzes how NASA's budget might be affected if costs for its proposed new programs for space exploration grew as much as some of NASA's program costs have grown in the past. Concluding the analysis is an examination of alternatives for the future of the space shuttle program and the United States' involvement in the International Space Station. In keeping with CBO's mandate to provide objective, impartial analysis, this study makes no recommendations.

David Arthur, Adrienne Ramsay, and Robie Samanta Roy of CBO's National Security Division wrote the report under the general supervision of J. Michael Gilmore. Kathy Gramp of CBO's Budget Analysis Division, supervised by Kim Cawley, contributed to the analysis. Adebayo Adedeji reviewed the manuscript for factual accuracy. David Auerbach, Matthew Goldberg, David Moore, and Elizabeth Robinson provided thoughtful comments on early drafts of the study, as did space consultant Dwayne Day, John Logsdon of George Washington University, and former CBO intern Robbie Schingler. (The assistance of external reviewers implies no responsibility for the final product, which rests solely with CBO.) The authors are also grateful to analysts and officials from NASA for responding to many requests for information.

Leah Mazade edited the study, and Christine Bogusz proofread it. Maureen Costantino prepared the study for publication, and Lenny Skutnik printed the initial copies. Annette Kalicki prepared the electronic versions for CBO's Web site.

Douglas Holtz-Eakin
Director
September 2004




CONTENTS


  Summary
1  NASA's Current Five-Year Plan and Extended Budget Projection

NASA's New Direction

Comparison of NASA's Budget Requests for 2004 and 2005

Funding for NASA's Lunar Return Mission

2  Estimating Potential Cost Growth for NASA's Exploration Vision Using the Historical-Average Approach

The Risk of Cost Growth and Schedule Delays in Technical Programs

Deriving Cost-Growth Risk Factors for NASA's Programs

The Budget for NASA's Exploration Program with Historical Cost Growth

3  Estimating Potential Costs for NASA's Exploration Vision Using Analogies with Past Missions

Cost Analogies for Programs to Return People to the Moon

Cost Analogies for Robotic Missions to the Moon and Mars

What Higher Costs in the Exploration Initiative Imply for NASA's Budget and Programming

4  Budgetary Implications of Alternative Decisions About the Shuttle Fleet and the International Space Station

NASA's New Plans for Operating the Shuttle and the International Space Station

Implications of Alternative Plans for the Shuttle's and the ISS's Operations

  Appendix
CBO's Analysis of Cost Growth in NASA's Programs


Tables
   
S-1.  Examples of Projected Funding Changes Between NASA's 2004 and 2005 Budget Plans
S-2.  Budget Strategies for Addressing Potential Cost Increases in NASA's Exploration Missions
1-1.  NASA's 2005 Projection of Funding Needs for Activities Through 2020
1-2.  Net Reallocations and Funding for New Programs in NASA's 2005 Budget Request
1-3.  Differences Between NASA's 2004 and 2005 Budget Requests, by Program
1-4.  NASA's Projected Budget for the First Human Return to the Moon, 2005 Through 2020
2-1.  Representative Sample of the Set of NASA's Programs That CBO Used to Calculate Cost-Growth Risk
2-2.  Cost Growth in R&D Programs for Selected Types of Defense Systems
3-1.  NASA's Plans for Robotic Missions
A-1.  Cross-Section of NASA's Programs and Budgets
   
Figures
   
S-1.  NASA's Projected Budget Through 2020 After Adjusting for Cost Escalation
S-2.  Potential Increases in Funding Needed for NASA's Exploration Vision Through 2020
1-1.  NASA's Projected Budget Through 2020
1-2.  CBO's Recategorization of NASA's Budget Projection Through 2020
2-1.  Potential Increase in Funding Needed for NASA's Exploration Vision with Historical Average Cost Growth
3-1.  Comparison of Actual and Proposed Costs for Lunar Missions Analogous to NASA's Human Lunar Exploration Program
3-2.  Potential Increase in Funding Needed for NASA's Human Lunar Exploration Program Based on the Costs of the Apollo Program
3-3.  Potential Increase in Funding Needed for NASA's Proposed Robotic Support Missions Based on the Costs of Past Robotic Missions
3-4.  Potential Increase in Funding Needed for NASA's Human Lunar Exploration and Robotic Support Missions Based on the Costs of Analogous Past Missions
4-1.  Potential Additional Funding Needed to Extend Space Shuttle Operations Through 2017
A-1.  Trends in the Costs of 72 NASA Programs
   
Boxes
   
S-1.  NASA's Initial Plans for Its New Exploration Mission
3-1.  Adjusting for Price Increases in Analyzing the Costs of NASA's Programs
4-1.  NASA's Prior Plans for Research on the International Space Station
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