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MONTHLY BUDGET REVIEW
Fiscal Year 1998
A Congressional Budget Office Analysis
Based on the Monthly Treasury Statement for June and the Daily Treasury Statements for July August 6, 1998
 

A $25 billion deficit is estimated for July, about $1 billion lower than the deficit reported for the same month a year ago. The results through July are consistent with CBO's estimate of a $63 billion total budget surplus for fiscal year 1998 and an on-budget deficit of $41 billion, excluding the estimated $104 billion surplus for off-budget items (Social Security and the Postal Service).
 

JUNE RESULTSa
(In billions of dollars)
June
Estimate		 June
Actual		 Difference
Receipts 187.2     187.9     0.7   
Outlays 136.8 136.8 b
Surplus 50.4 51.1 0.7
SOURCE: Department of the Treasury and Congressional Budget Office.
a. Includes Social Security trust funds and the Postal Service fund, which are off-budget.
b. Less than $50 million.

The June surplus of $51.1 billion was $0.7 billion above CBO's estimate for the month, within the typical $2 billion error range for monthly estimates.
 

CBO ESTIMATES FOR JULYa
(In billions of dollars)
July
1997		 July
1998		 Estimated
Change
Receipts 109.2     118.7     9.5  
Outlays 134.8 143.5 8.7
Deficit (-) -25.6 -24.8 0.8
SOURCE: Department of the Treasury and Congressional Budget Office.
a. Includes Social Security trust funds and the Postal Service fund, which are off-budget.

July receipts are estimated to be about $9.5 billion higher than a year ago, and outlays are expected to be up by nearly the same amount. Receipts were boosted in part by one more collection day this year, while outlays were boosted by about $8 billion in August payments because August 1 fell on a weekend.
 

COMPARISON WITH LAST YEARa
(By fiscal year, in billions of dollars)
October-July
Estimated
Change
1997 1998
Receipts 1,300.7 1,427.7 127.0   
Outlays 1,337.4 1,385.4 48.0
Deficit (-) or Surplus -36.7 42.3 79.0
SOURCE: Department of the Treasury and Congressional Budget Office.
a. Includes Social Security trust funds and the Postal Service fund, which are off-budget.

The cumulative net improvement in total budget transactions for October through July, compared with a year ago, is estimated to be $79 billion.
 

RECEIPTS THROUGH JULYa
(By fiscal year, in billions of dollars)
Major Source October-July
Percentage
Change
1997 1998
Individual Income 613.6 682.5 11.2  
Corporate Income 142.7 149.7 4.9
Social Insurance 445.6 483.1 8.4
Other 98.9 112.3 13.6
 
Total 1,300.7 1,427.7 9.8
SOURCE: Department of the Treasury and Congressional Budget Office.
a. Includes Social Security trust funds and the Postal Service fund, which are off-budget.

Receipts in July were close to the level expected for that month under CBO's latest revenue projection for the fiscal year.
 

OUTLAYS THROUGH JULYa
(By fiscal year, in billions of dollars)
Major Category October-July
Percentage
Change
1997 1998
Defense-Military 214.8 214.6 -0.1  
Social Security Benefits 297.8 309.2 3.8
Medicare and Medicaid 254.2 265.5 4.5
Net Interest on the Public Debt 208.5 208.4 -0.1
Other 362.1 387.8 7.1
 
Total 1,337.4 1,385.4 3.6
SOURCE: Department of the Treasury and Congressional Budget Office.
a. Includes Social Security trust funds and the Postal Service fund, which are off-budget.

Outlays in July also appear to be consistent with CBO's latest outlay projection for the fiscal year. July outlays will include an offsetting receipt of $1.9 billion for the sale of the U.S. Enrichment Corporation.
 

FISCAL YEAR 1998 PROJECTIONS
(In billions of dollars)
OMB
May		 CBO
July
Total Receipts 1,704    1,717   
Total Outlays 1,665 1,654
Total Surplus 39 63
On-budget deficit (-) -63 -41
Off-budget surplus 102 104
SOURCE: Office of Management and Budget and Congressional Budget Office.

The results through July are on track with CBO's fiscal year estimates of a $63 billion total budget surplus and an on-budget deficit of $41 billion, excluding the estimated $104 billion surplus for off-budget items (Social Security trust funds and the Postal Service).
 

Prepared by James Blum and Richard Kasten.