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CBO estimates that the deficit for the first two months of fiscal year 2000 was $52 billion, slightly more than the deficit at the same time last year. Nevertheless, CBO anticipates that the total budget surplus for the year will exceed the $124 billion realized in fiscal year 1999.
 

The Treasury reported a deficit of $26.7 billion in October, slightly more than CBO had projected on the basis of the Daily Treasury Statements. Revenues were almost identical to the preliminary estimate, but outlays were $0.7 billion more than CBO had expected.
 

CBO estimates that the deficit in November was about $25 billion compared with $17 billion last November. This year, the month included one more business day, which added about $2 billion in revenues. And last year, November 1 fell on a Sunday, so payments totaling close to $10 billion were shifted into October. After adjusting for those calendar effects, the November 1999 results look much like those of last November.
 

CBO estimates that the deficit for the first two months of fiscal year 2000 was $52 billion--about $2 billion more than in the same period last year. Receipts for those two months were about $8 billion higher than last year, but outlays were up by an estimated $10 billion.
 

For the first two months of fiscal year 2000, revenues are up by 3.5 percent compared with the same period last year. Receipts from withheld individual income and social insurance taxes are 8 percent higher. Other revenue sources are lagging behind, but their declines say little about the strength of the economy. Receipts from corporate income taxes are down, but few corporations have made payments yet this year. (The first payment of the fiscal year for most corporations will be made on December 15.) Most of the decrease in other tax revenues can be explained by a shift of $5 billion in excise tax revenues from August and September 1998 into October 1998 (thus increasing the fiscal year 1999 figure), which did not recur this year.
 

CBO estimates that outlays are 3.7 percent higher for the first two months of fiscal year 2000 than for the same period last year. That growth rate is slightly higher than the 3.1 percent rate experienced for the whole of fiscal year 1999.

Defense spending appears to be off to a fast start this year, up by an estimated 8 percent in the first two months. Medicare outlays, which dropped in 1999, have grown by almost 2 percent over last year's spending in the same period. Net interest is down by 2 percent, although rising interest rates have partially offset the decline in debt owed to the public. Spending for a variety of other programs has grown by about 5 percent. Substantial payments to farmers have added to outlays in that category, but large disbursements of foreign aid, which last year were made in November, will not go out until December this year.

NOTE: Unless otherwise indicated, the figures in this report include the Social Security trust funds and the Postal Service fund, which are off-budget. Numbers may not add up to totals because of rounding.