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Lower-than-estimated outlays in August and September will pull the deficit for fiscal year 1997 down below $25 billion. Receipts for the fiscal year will be close to CBO's August estimate.
 

• August receipts of $103.5 billion were up only $3.5 billion from a year ago, held down in part by one fewer collection day this year, and close to our estimate for the month.
  
  
• August outlays of $138.1 billion were $3.7 billion below last year's level and about $5 billion lower than estimated for the month. The largest shortfalls in August outlays from expected levels were for the Postal Service fund and the Department of Education.
  
  
• The August deficit of $34.6 billion was down $7.2 billion from a year ago and over $5 billion lower than expected.

• The cumulative deficit through August was $71.3 billion, one half of the level last year for the same period.

• Daily Treasury statements for September indicate that receipts for the month were about $174.7 billion, around $17 billion above last year's level, boosted in part by one extra collection day this year.
  
  
• Outlays are estimated to be $126.7 billion in September, up $4.3 billion from a year ago but about $5 billion lower than expected.
  
  
• The range of error around the estimate of a monthly deficit or surplus is about $2 billion, based on past experience. This means that the actual surplus that will be reported later this month by the Treasury should be somewhere between $46 billion and $50 billion.

• Receipts for the fiscal year will be close to the August CBO estimate of $1,578 billion. As a percentage of GDP, receipts will be 19.8 percent, just above the 1981 level of 19.7 percent.
  
  
• Outlays are now expected to be about $10 billion lower than CBO estimated in August. The shortfalls from CBO estimated outlays appear to be spread widely among federal spending programs. The largest shortfalls include such programs as Medicare, Medicaid, family support payments, the Postal Service, and Defense-Military. As a percentage of GDP, outlays will be 20.1 percent, the lowest level since 1974.
  
  
• The deficit for 1997 is now expected to be about $23 billion, plus or minus $2 billion. As a percentage of GDP, the deficit would be only 0.3 percent, the lowest level since 1970.

• The primary source of higher receipts in 1997 is the individual income and payroll tax collections, reflecting the surprisingly strong economy.
  
  
• Corporate income tax collections in 1997 are up 6.0 percent from last year's level.

• The softness in August outlays reduced the rate of growth over last year from 3.2 percent through July to 2.6 percent through August.
  
  
• Outlay growth has been held down by $11 billion in spectrum auction receipts and close to $14 billion in net receipts for deposit insurance programs. Absent these offsetting receipts, outlay growth through August was 3.8 percent.

• Borrowing from the public through August amounted to $56.5 billion, $79 billion below last year's comparable level and $14.8 billion lower than the cumulative deficit of $71.3 billion. A reduction in operating cash balances and other factors account for borrowing being less than the cumulative deficit.