PREPARED BY SAVE OUR WILD SALMON

Cost Comparison For the Removal or Retention of the Four Lower Snake Dams

The Army Corps of Engineers Draft Environmental Impact Study (DEIS) claims that with all costs tallied, partial removal of four Lower Snake River dams would cost $246 million dollars more each year than other alternatives. In fact, the DEIS underestimates both the benefits of dam bypass and the costs of keeping the dams in place. A comprehensive look at all costs and benefits, considering habitat and hatchery costs as well as others the DEIS omits, such as flow augmentation and Clean Water Act compliance, suggests that dam bypass saves at least $50 million annually and would contribute nearly $500 million a year in additional real benefit value.

The costs and benefits listed below are conservative. In several cases, the cost of retaining dams is likely larger. The Clean Water Act estimate below does not account for compliance with temperature standards. An alternate flow augmentation cost estimated by the Bureau of Reclamation is hundreds of millions more per year. And the costs still do not account for the Snake River's share of Federal fish mitigation spending, estimated by Taxpayers for Common Sense at approximately $100 million per year. Also, the benefits of removing dams are likely far larger than estimated by the DEIS. Based on the middle estimate of recreation benefits, the recreation value of dam bypass would be at least $199-342 million per year. The passive or existence values of the salmon were calculated by the Army Corps but were not added into the Corps' summary documents. Using just the figures calculated by the Corps, but correcting adding the costs of dam retention and the benefits of dam removal, the savings from dam removal would run close to five hundred million dollars per year.

Throughout the DEIS the Corps minimizes the benefits of dam removal. The fact that the Corps accounts for $20 million a year under Mitigation for maintaining Habitat Management Units (HMU) is absurd. HMU's are riparian lands that were established to compensate for the portions along the river that were flooded when the dams were built. Over 34,000 acres of riparian land will be uncovered after dam removal. The Corps does not include the value of this "new" land to be a benefit.

Furthermore the costs of dam removal could be reduced significantly with prudent investments in infrastructure in areas like power generation and transportation. The Corps has not studied these types of investments even though the Federal Government thinks it necessary to do so. Still, the Corps numbers (summarized below) give us a basic understanding of the economic reasonableness of dam removal.


 Benefits if Dams are RemovedBenefits if Dams Stay
Recreation: $123 million
Low estimate of rec. benefits if dams were removed. (DEIS 13-54)
$32 million
Estimation of reservoir angling and reservoir general recreation (DEIS 13-54)
Passive or Existence Values.* $420 million per year
Calculated and published in DEIS documents but not included in final report calculations (I-ES 17).
$0*

* The vast majority of these jobs are seasonal, part-time. (Source: DEIS table 5.13-2)


  Costs if Dams are RemovedCost if Dams Stay
Dam Construction/Deconstruction: $64 Million
Partial removal of four Lower Snake Dams (DEIS 13-157)
$21.3 Million
"Major System Improvements" (DEIS 13-157)
Dam Operation, Maintenance & Rehabilitation: $0
Avoided Costs. (DEIS 13-159).
$29 million
Alt. power generation replacement, e.g. gas turbines
Transportation: $24 million
Increased transportation costs for rail or truck/barge. (DEIS, 112-2) Reduced significantly w/ infrastructure investments. See AR study by Dickey.
$10 million
Conservative estimate of barging taxpayer subsidy (Grain Transportation After Partial Removal of the Lower Snake River Dams, Dr. Edward Dickey. Sept., 1999.)
Irrigation: $15.4 million
Primarily Ice Harbor irrigation infrastructure (DEIS 112-2)
$0
Flow Augmentation: $0 $182 million
An additional 1.0 million acre-feet studied by Bureau of Reclamation. Cost includes acquisition of flow, effect on upriver recreation, annual loss in farming gross revenues, and decrease in value of production. (Bureau of Rec. Flow Aug. Impact Analysis. February, 1999.)
Mitigation: $26 million
Fish and wildlife, cultural. (DEIS, 113-2)
$0
Clean Water Act: $0 $30 million
Total cost $460 million, divided along the same 15-year timeline used in the All-H habitat estimates. (Resolving Rate Case Issues. Federal Memo, May 11, 1999.)
Habitat: $159 million
The cost of a reduced habitat program implemented if the dams are removed. (NMFS All-H Habitat Appendix, January 2000)
$241 million
An aggressive habitat program. Does not including flow augmentation. (NMFS All-H Habitat Appendix, January 2000)
Hatchery Improvements: $7.4 million
(Resolving Rate Case Issues. Federal Memo, May 11, 1999)
$12.4 million
TOTAL COST
$444 million/year $494 million/year

Reduction in Irrigated Lands* (1,579) 0
Reductions in Corps' Dam Operations (1,326) 0
Reduced Cruise Ship Operations (83) 0
Total Long-term Employment Loss (2,988) (2,382)
Net Long-term Employment Change (711) (1,257)
Net Change as a % of 1995 Employment (0.22) (0.02)
* The vast majority of these jobs are seasonal, part-time. (Source: DEIS table 5.13-2)


The Corps of Engineers estimates of economic impact are unrealistic in two other important ways. First, they downplay or ignore economic benefits outside their 25-county study area, ignoring economic benefits to tribes, to coastal communities, and the economic growth that follows restoration of a more healthy ecosystem. Second, large costs and economic disruptions of keeping dams in place are not counted in the Corps study.

A comprehensive look at all costs and benefits, considering habitat and hatchery costs as well as others the DEIS omits, such as flow augmentation and Clean Water Act compliance, suggests that dam bypass saves at least $50 million annually. The Bureau of Reclamation has estimated that flow augmentation, adding water to the dammed river from upstream reservoirs, could cost at least $182 million a year, disrupting hundreds of thousands of acres of irrigated land, where dam removal would affect no more than 37,000 acres. Compliance with the Clean Water Act could cost $460 million or more if dams stay in place. And the cost of Tribal Treaty claims if fish go extinct, estimated in billions of dollars, would dwarf all other costs. The Corps ignores these costs.

Although some habitat restoration would be necessary if dams are removed, the Corps did not give any value to restoring 140 miles of the mainstem Snake, which would reveal 34,000 acres of inundated riparian land and approximately 13,000 acres of river surface area, increasing big-mass in the lower Snake by 70 percent. The NW Power Planning council analyzed alternatives that include aggressive, widespread habitat actions that would be necessary if dams remain in place. The NPPC Framework Human Effects Group found the habitat-reliant alternative would cost $40 million more than dam removal, and would broadly impact farming, grazing, logging and other land uses.

Removal of four lower Snake River dams would create significant economic opportunities for construction trades, while implementing the only salmon recovery solution that scientifically promises salmon recovery. Alternatives that keep dams in place present few benefits for carpenters, are more expensive for the public and more economically disruptive to the region, and have little or no evidence that they will lead to salmon recovery.

The Corps of Engineers Draft Environmental Impact Statement (DEIS) calculates the job gains and losses that would occur if the four lower Snake dams are removed. By focusing on a 25-county study area" surrounding the lower Snake River, the DEIS generally under-estimates economic benefits and over- estimates job losses and economic costs associated with dam removal. It fails to capture the general economic benefit of a healthy river and salmon recovery. The DEIS estimates more than 20,000 jobs would be created in the 10 years during which partial dam removal would proceed, including:

-- 12,000 construction jobs building up to six replacement power plants and electric transmission lines

-- 3,000 jobs building improved rail and road infrastructure

-- 1175 jobs modifying wells


Job Impacts During 10 Years of Partial Dam Removal
 Lower Snake River
Study Area
Regional
Power Plant Construction 5,572 2,786
Transmission Line Construction 2,080 0
Rail Construction 872 0
Road Construction 1,972 0
Facilities Construction 6,982 0
Railcar Storage Construction 0 63
Well Modification 1,175 0
Pump Modification 844 0
Partial Removal Implementation 1,293 0
Total Change 20,790 2,849
Change as % of 1995 Employment 6.52 0.05
(Source: DEIS table 5.13-2)


Beyond the 10 year construction period, the DEIS estimates a small net loss in regional jobs, but includes gains in areas that could affect construction trades. The estimates exaggerate the impacts of reduced irrigated agriculture, ignoring approaches that could keep land in production and counting seasonal part-time jobs at the same level as full-time jobs. The DEIS also under-estimates the value of increased recreation that would follow restoration of 140 miles of free-flowing river. And a study by the Natural Resources Defense Council predicts that costs associated with increased electric bills could be reduced substantially by conservation.


Long-Term Job Impacts
 Lower Snake River
Study Area
Regional
O&M Spending on Replacement Power Plants & New Transmission Lines 884 876
Increased Recreation (inc. Angling) 1,393 249
Commercial Fishing 0 249
Total Long-term Employment Gain 2,277 1,125
Reduced Spending due to Increased Electric Bills (2,382) 0
Power: $271 million
Alt. power generation replacement, e.g. gas turbines
$0
Transportation: $24 million
Increased transportation costs for rail or truck/barge. (DEIS, 112-2) Reduced significantly w/ infrastructure investments. See AR study by Dickey.
$10 million
Conservative estimate of barging taxpayer subsidy (Grain Transportation ARer Partial Removal of the Lower Snake River Dams, Dr. Edward Dickey. Sept., 1999.)
Irrigation: $15.4 million
Primarily Ice Harbor irrigation infrastructure (DEIS 112-2)
$0
Flow Augmentation: $0 $182 million
An additional 1.0 million acre-feet studied by Bureau of Reclamation. Cost includes acquisition of flow, effect on upriver recreation, annual loss in farming gross revenues, and decrease in value of production. (Bureau of Rec. Flow Aug Impact Analysis. February, 1999.)
Mitigation: $26 million
Fish and wildlife, cultural. (DEIS, 113-2)
$0
Clean Water Act: $0 $30 million
Total cost $460 million divided along the same 15-year timeline used in the All-H habitat estimates. (Resolving Rate Case Issues. Federal Memo, May 11, 1999.)
Habitat: $159 million
The cost of a reduced habitat program implemented if the dams are removed. (NMFS All-H Habitat Appendix, January 2000)
$241 million
An aggressive habitat program. Does not including flow augmentation. (NMFS All-H Habitat Appendix, January 2000)
Hatchery Improvements: $7.4 million
(Resolving Rate Case Issues. Federal Memo, May 11, 1999)
$12.4 million
TOTAL COST
$444 million/year $494 million/year


Jobs and Employment

Removal of four lower Snake River dams would create significant economic opportunities for construction trades, while implementing the only salmon recovery solution that scientifically promises salmon recovery. Alternatives that keep dams in place present few benefits for carpenters, are more expensive for the public and more economically disruptive to the region, and have little or no evidence that they will lead to salmon recovery.

The DEIS calculates the job gains and losses that would occur if the four lower Snake dams are removed. By focusing on a 25-county "study area" surrounding the lower Snake River, the DEIS generally under-estimates economic benefits and over-estimates job losses and economic costs associated with dam removal. It fails to capture the general economic benefit of a healthy river and salmon recovery. The DEIS estimates more than 20,000 jobs would be created in the 10 years during which partial dam removal would proceed, including:

-- 12,000 construction jobs building up to six replacement power plants and electric transmission lines

-- 3,000 jobs building improved rail and road infrastructure.

-- 1,175 jobs modifying wells


 Lower Snake River
Study Area
Regional
Power Plant Construction 5,572 2,786
Transmission Line Construction 2,080 0
Rail Construction 872 0
Road Construction 1,972 0
Facilities Construction 6,982 0
Railcar Storage Construction 0 63
Well Modification 1,175 0
Pump Modification 844 0
Partial Removal Implementation 1,293 0
Total Change 20,790 2,849
Change as % of 1995 Employment 6.52 0.05
(Source: DEIS table C.13-2)


Beyond the 10 year construction period, the DEIS estimates a small net loss in regional jobs, but includes gains in areas that could affect construction trades. The estimates exaggerate the impacts of reduced irrigated agriculture, ignoring approaches that could keep land in production and counting seasonal part-time jobs at the same level as full-time jobs. The DEIS also under-estimates the value of increased recreation that would follow restoration of 140 miles of free-flowing river. And a study by the Natural Resources Defense Council predicts that costs associated with increased electric bills could be reduced substantially by conservation.


Long-Term Job Impacts
 Lower Snake River
Study Area
Regional
O&M Spending on Replacement Power Plants & New Transmission Lines 884 876
Increased Recreation (inc. Angling) 1,393 0
Commercial Fishing 0 249
Total Long-term Employment Gain 2,277 1,125
Reduced Spending Due to Increased Electric Bills (2,382) (1,579)
Reduction in Irrigated Lands* (1,579) 0
Reductions in Corps' Dam Operations (1,326) 0
Reduced Cruise Ship Operations (83) 0
Total Long-term Employment Loss (2,988) (2,382)
Net Long-term Employment Change (711) (1,257)
Net Change as a % of 1995 Employment (0.22) (0.02)

* The vast majority of these jobs are seasonal, part-time. (Source: DEIS table 5.13-2)


The Corps of Engineers estimates of economic impact are unrealistic in two other important ways. First, they downplay or ignore economic benefits outside their 25-county study area, ignoring economic benefits to tribes, to coastal communities, and the economic growth that follows restoration of a healthier ecosystem. Second, large costs and economic disruptions of maintaining the dams are not counted in the Corps study.

Compliance with the Clean Water Act could cost $460 million or more if dams stay in place. And the cost of Tribal Treaty claims if fish go extinct, estimated in billions of dollars, would dwarf all other costs. The Corps ignores these costs.

Although some habitat restoration would be necessary if dams are removed, the Corps did not give any value to restoring 140 miles of the mainstem Snake, which would reveal 34,000 acres of inundated riparian land and approximately 13,000 acres of river surface area, increasing big-mass in the lower Snake by 70 percent. The NW Power Planning council analyzed alternatives that include aggressive, widespread habitat actions that would be necessary if dams remain in place. The NPPC Framework Human Effects Group found the habitat-reliant alternative would cost $40 million more than dam removal, and would broadly impact farming, grazing, logging and other land uses.