:: Lurking in the Depths ::
It is one of the
final scenes in the movie Jaws. Chief Brody is shoveling a mixture
of fish parts off the stern of the Orca, in a last ditch
effort to attract the killer shark. The sound of the waves and the
bait splashing in the water is interrupted only with the rhythmic
pattern of the Orca breaking the waves. Suspense builds as
the sheriff continues shoveling bait into the gray-blue water.
Without warning, the massive shadow of the killer shark
emerges under the salty water and with great speed the shark thrusts
itself into the boat barring it massive teeth with horrifying
surprise.
The shock effect of
the shark draws parallels to the reaction of many, not just in the
United States but across the globe, as the powerful developments of
the Chinese military and the spreading effects of its
economy continue to unfold. China has emerged -
economically, militarily and technologically - seemingly out of
nowhere, and splashed upon the world with frightening speed and
presence.
Yet, unlike the
sheriff in Jaws, we continue to toss bait off the rear of the
ship even though we have now seen the magnitude of this giant
entity. You would think by now we would be shocked into different
courses of action, but I see little evidence of that. And truly,
when it comes to China, the only thing that surprises me is that our
government continues to be surprised.
What catalyst -
what new revelation - will finally drive America's leaders to wake
up? Six recent concerning actions of China seemed to have failed to
significantly change the mindset of our government’s top leaders.
1) Will it wake
us up when China consistently increases their military budget by double-digit
percentages?
On March 4, China
announced a 17.8 percent increase over 2006 levels in defense
spending. Yet, this large increase is blurred by a lack of
transparency. We know that any reported defense spending is no more
than one-third of actual spending because it fails to include
important sectors such as weapons procurement and research and
development. Without transparency, this announcement only raises
questions about China’s intentions.
2) Will it wake
us up when our own Department of Defense does an about-face on
China’s military intentions?
It has not in the
past. In 2003, the Department of Defense reported in its People’s
Republic of China (PRC) Military Power Report: “While continuing to
research and discuss possibilities, China appears to have set aside
indefinitely plans to acquire an aircraft carrier.”
The Department of
Defense would drastically change course reporting in its 2006 PRC
Military Power Report that “there were indications last year that
China plans to organize a combat air wing for a future aircraft
carrier.”
Last year, the
Chinese were spotted at an air show in Moscow scouting planes that
could only be used on aircraft carriers, and only two month ago,
President Hu would send a call to a meeting of the delegates to the
Communist Party, urging the building of a powerful navy prepared “at
any time” for military struggle. And, just this week, a Hong Kong
newspaper quoted a senior member of the PRC military as saying that
at current research and development levels, China will have the
ability to build an aircraft carrier by 2010. Persistent calls for
transparency from China have seemingly gone unanswered.
3) Will
America’s leaders wake up when we find that a Chinese sub is
stalking a U.S. carrier?
Clearly, the answer
is no. In November, America was shocked to discover that a Chinese
submarine had stalked a U.S. aircraft carrier battle group in the
Pacific and surfaced within firing range of the U.S.S. Kitty Hawk
before being detected.
The Chinese plan to
build 17 new diesel-powered and three new nuclear-powered submarines
by the end of the decade, allowing them to expand their influence
into the Pacific and beyond. And yet, we continue down a path upon
which the United States’ current shipbuilding plan will result in a
force structure below the minimum 48 submarine requirement for 14
years beginning in 2018, reaching a low of 40 in 2028-29. China will
soon have more attack submarines than the United States with
the addition of four Russian Kilo-class subs.
4) Will America
choose to take a different course when we see China modeling its
military aggression towards the United States in sophisticated
computer simulation?
This has not yet
been the catalyst. I recently had the opportunity to view a highly
sophisticated computer simulation of a Chinese aerial attack on a
U.S. carrier in the Pacific Ocean. The quality and design of that
simulation rivals that of many simulations I have seen that are run
by our own military. The problem is this simulation was part of a
public website in Chinese that allowed thousands of registered
gamers to compete in virtual scenarios against U.S. assets, depicted
with remarkable accuracy down to the markings on the aircraft
carriers and jet airplanes. It is not unreasonable to expect that
the Chinese military is using similar models.
5) Will we
change our course of action when America realizes that China’s
sophisticated intelligence collection rivals that of any other
foreign nation in its threat to the United States?
The answer again is
no. In May and October of last year we watched twice as major US
counterintelligence failures – one stretching back two decades –
were exposed to the world. Last year in a House Judiciary hearing, I
questioned the Attorney General on the significance of these and
other Chinese spy rings. Without hesitation, the Attorney General
definitively stated that China was the number one espionage threat
against this country.
6) Will
America’s leaders rethink the direction our nation is taking when
China secretly fires lasers to disable communications satellites?
Will it make a difference when they actually shoot down a satellite?
Clearly, it has
not. Only a month ago we watched as China destroyed an orbiting
weather satellite signaling to the world that it had the capability
to intentionally destroy our communications networks and certainly
had the capability to unintentionally damage our assets in space
with the considerable debris left behind.
While U.S. exports
to China have grown by 415 percent over the last 15 years, China's
exports to the United States have grown by 1,600 percent. Today
China holds the second largest amount of foreign US debt, or $252
billion dollars, over 12% of all foreign investment in federal debt.
And today China is stealing over $62 billion in intellectual
property, money that is being used to purchase the most
sophisticated weaponry in the world.
We cannot pretend
any longer. We desperately lack a comprehensive governmental plan to
address our future relationship with China.
I believe the
critical solution to the problem is the creation of a National
Strategic inter-agency staff to harness the collective energy and
opportunities of our nation to prepare for the long-term impact of
China’s rising power and influence around the world. This cadre of
senior agency staff would be trained in a common lexicon, perhaps at
one of the war colleges, and would be tasked with developing,
modeling, coordinating and evaluating complex operations that cross
agency lines.
Until America
harnesses its collective strategic assets we will not truly be able
to see the whole picture of our relationship with China. And,
indeed, as the months pass, we will find ourselves with more
powerful examples of how we have allowed America to be surprised by
China and her intentions.
Congressman
Forbes is Founder and Chairman of the Congressional China Caucus.
Visit http://randyforbes.house.gov
to learn more about the Caucus.
:: Honoring Virginia State University ::
Click the above
image to watch Congressman Forbes speak on the VSU Resolution during
debate on Tuesday, March 6.
Virginia State University (VSU)
celebrated its 125th year of serving students on March 6, 2007. To
recognize this landmark anniversary, I recently introduced a
resolution, H.Res. 182, honoring VSU’s continued service to their
students, the surrounding community and the Commonwealth of
Virginia. This resolution fittingly passed the House of
Representatives this week on March 6, 2007. The hard work of VSU’s faculty and
staff to provide excellence in education, throughout the
university’s long and rich history, does not go unnoticed.
Since its founding in 1882, VSU has
answered to the needs of its students by offering an accessible,
affordable and quality education. VSU was the first university to be
fully funded by the Commonwealth of Virginia as an institution of
higher learning for African Americans.
VSU, located in Chesterfield
County, Virginia, continues to advance opportunities for learning on
their campus by offering 45 baccalaureate and master’s degree
programs and by introducing its first doctoral program in 2003. The
school’s enrollment boasts nearly 5,000 students and sustains a
236-acre main campus with more than 50 buildings, including 15
dormitories, 16 classroom buildings and a 416-acre agricultural
research facility.
H.Res. 182 is cosponsored by the
entire Virginia Congressional delegation in the House of
Representatives. The university is more than worthy of this
distinguished recognition for their impressive advancements and
accomplishments in their 125-year history.
To read the text of H.Res. 182,
click here.
To learn more about VSU’s 125th
anniversary,
click here. |