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Point of View ::
As the military plane carrying the congressional delegation I was leading to China touched down at the Beijing airport, I could not help but notice the communist Chinese guards patrolling the runway. I had been briefed that every word I said from that point forward would likely be recorded and even video taped – including the hotel room in which I would be staying and the motorcades in which I would travel. Such an experience makes you appreciate the freedoms we have in America even more and recommit your efforts to ensure that they are passed on to future generations.
Since the initiation of economic reforms in 1979, China has become one of the world's fastest growing economies. From 1979-2003, China's real GDP grew at an average rate of 9.3% and it is estimated to have risen by 9.5% in 2004, by far the highest for any major economy. In comparison, many major economies are growing at a rate of around 3-4% per year. Many economists speculate that China could become the world's largest economy at some point in the near future.
With this rapid economic growth, China’s expanding economic base is fueling a sharp demand for energy and raw materials, and this Chinese demand is increasingly influencing world prices for such commodities. According to the International Energy Agency, China accounted for one-third of the rise in daily global oil consumption in 2003, and is reportedly the largest consumer of steel, cement and copper.
America indeed does stand to benefit from China’s expansion. Chinese innovation and products have long fed America’s enormous appetite for consumer goods, and as Chinese innovation is moving into a high-tech realm, cheaper technology is becoming widely-available to American consumers. However, as a nation, we also stand to lose. While some Americans are keenly tuned in to China’s “Golden Age” of economic development, many have failed to recognize that the rapidly growing Chinese economy is financing a significant military modernization effort, one that is quietly occurring as the world’s attention remains largely placed on current hot spots such as Iraq and North Korea.
When assessing China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), one will see a quiet storm cloud growing on the world’s horizon. The PLAN's acquisition of sophisticated military ships and aircraft, improvements in production, and development of a modern Navy points with increasing alarm to China's drive for naval domination. And logically, as China expands its military power, Beijing will be more tempted to view this military strength as a mechanism to exert pressure on China's neighbors and to assert its influence regionally and perhaps even globally.
Today, though the United States naval fleet is the most technologically advanced and well-trained power on the seas, many of us are concerned about our long-range capabilities. This year the President in his budget and some members in Congress are proposing additional reductions to the size of our Naval Forces. According to the American Shipbuilding Association, even without these proposed reductions, by the year 2010, China’s submarine force will be nearly double the size of the U.S. submarine fleet and only five years later the entire Chinese naval fleet is projected to surpass the size of the U.S. fleet.
Looking through a long-range global lens, there is a temptation for the United States to structure its Armed Forces too much in response to near-term requirements such as the war on terrorism or the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan, and not enough around requirements associated with countering significantly more capable Chinese military forces that might emerge over the coming decades.
When it comes to national security, we need to ask the question, “What do we need?” not “What can we afford?” We have the opportunity in Congress to think short-term or to think long-term. While pressures to think short-term are urgent, they don’t overshadow the importance of being prepared for the future. Where we sit today, it is impossible to tell if China will become one of America’s greatest allies or one of America’s greatest enemies in the coming decade. We pray for an ally, but we must prepare for an enemy.
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