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CBO
TESTIMONY
 
STATEMENT OF
ALICE M. RIVLIN
DIRECTOR
CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE
 
BEFORE THE
TASK FORCE ON DISTRIBUTIVE IMPACTS OF
BUDGET AND ECONOMIC POLICIES
COMMITTEE ON THE BUDGET
U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
 
FEBRUARY 21, 1978
 

Mr. Chairman:

Since the depths of the recession in 1975, the unemployment situation has improved markedly. The overall unemployment rate, which was 8.3 percent in the last quarter of 1975, dropped to 6.6 percent in the last quarter of 1977. Over the same period, the number of people unemployed declined by 15.2 percent, and employment rose by 7.9 percent.

The fall in unemployment associated with the recovery has not, however, been experienced equally by all members of the labor force. Two groups--nonwhites and teenagers--continue to be plagued by very high unemployment rates. As Table 1 shows, while the unemployment rate for whites declined from 7.6 to 5.8 percent, the rate for nonwhites declined only slightly--from 13.8 to 13.3 percent. In fact, the unemployment rate for nonwhite adult women increased from 11.3 to 11.8 percent. Although adult nonwhite male unemployment rates have fallen, they dropped no faster than those of white males, and they began at a much higher level. Further, these differences in white and nonwhite unemployment rates have continued despite the fact that nonwhite adult employment has increased faster than white employment.

Teenage unemployment has remained high. Nonwhite teenage unemployment increased from 35.9 to 38.3 percent, and employment for this group has risen less than half as rapidly as white employment. This is a major reason that teenage black unemployment is so difficult a problem. While teenage unemployment has always been higher than adult unemployment, it is higher now than it has been in the past, and the very high black teenage rate is of great social concern.

Today, I would like to review with the task force the reasons for these unemployment rate differences, the prospects for these inequalities being reduced as the economy moves towards full employment, and the impact some illustrative policies might have on those differences.

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