“Zombie” satellite shuts down critical NOAA NWS systems overnight

Posted on December 6, 2010 by Anthony Watts

I’m a bit of a zombie myself as I write this, as I was up until 4:30AM PST dealing with this problem which turned out to affect National Weather Service offices nationwide in addition to my business, which uses the same satellite data feed. It is a rather interesting story of technology gone “rogue” and it all started last spring with one telecommunications satellite that turned naughty last April:

Intelsat Loses Contact with Galaxy 15 Satellite | SpaceNews.com

It seems a solar storm was to blame:

Continue reading →


Posted in space, Technology | Tagged , , , , , | 25 Comments

CFACT’s “Kook of the week” at Cancun

Posted on December 6, 2010 by Anthony Watts

From the YouTube description: Lord Christopher Monckton, renowned science and policy expert, presents CFACT’s Kook of the Week. This gentleman was found at the UN Conference on Climate Change in Cancun, Mexico.

Watch the video: Continue reading →

Posted in Humor, satire | Tagged , , | 60 Comments

Visualizing the entire 2010 Atlantic hurricane season in one image

Posted on December 6, 2010 by Anthony Watts

The photo below is a stunning and novel piece of imagery and I commend NOAA’s Environmental Visualization Laboratory for this nicely done graphic. If they had done it last year, Al Gore would not have had to Photoshop in some fake (and reverse spinning) hurricanes for his most recent book. See: Not finding any, Gore airbrushes in hurricanes for his new book

11/30/2010 Hurricane Season Ends With High Activity But Few Landfalls

The 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season ends today after an incredibly active season. A total of 19 storms were named by the National Hurricane Center. This number ties 2010 with 1887 and 1995 for the 3rd most active season on record. Continue reading →

Posted in Al Gore is an idiot, hurricanes, weather | Tagged , , , , | 31 Comments

BBC “disappears” headline “Coldest December Day on record for some sites”

Posted on December 6, 2010 by Anthony Watts

People send me stuff. Strange, what could be so wrong or threatening about this story headline that it simply had to “vanish” without so much as a correction or a note as to why? Fortunately the Internet has a memory. This screencap below is from Google cache:

click to enlarge

But if you go to Paul Hudson’s BBC blog right now…

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/

or to the original URL:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/2010/12/coldest-december-day-on-record.shtml

You won’t find this headline. Instead, you’ll find this one: Continue reading →

Posted in climate data, media | Tagged , , , | 40 Comments

Monckton’s Mexican Missive

Posted on December 6, 2010 by Anthony Watts

From Nopenhagen to Yes We Cancun

by Christopher Monckton

Thanks to Wikileaks, everyone here in the Mañana Republic of Mexico now knows just how much bullying and arm-twisting the administration of Barack Obama in the United States applied to various countries around the world so that they would (and did) sign up to the Copenhagen climate accord.

Without that pressure, nothing at all would have happened at Copenhagen this time last year, and “the Process” – the interminable round of flatulent annual climate conferences in exotic locations at taxpayers’ expense – would have tipped into the gulch forever.

Continue reading →

Posted in Cancun Climate Conference | Tagged , , , , | 116 Comments

Warmest year ever? – 2010: An Unexceptional El Nino Year

Posted on December 6, 2010 by Anthony Watts

by David Whitehouse of the GWPF

The Global Warming Policy Foundation, 3 December 2010

If the media headlines are to be believed 2010 is heading to be either the warmest or in the top three warmest years since the instrumental global temperature records began 150 years ago, and proof that the world is getting ever warmer. But looking more closely at the data reveals a different picture.

2010 will be remembered for just two warm months, attributable to the El Nino effect, with the rest of the year being nothing but average, or less than average temperature.

With November and December¹s data still to come in (that will account for 16% of the year¹s data) the UK Met Office estimates the temperature anomaly (with respect to the end of the 19th century) for 2010 so far as 0.756 deg C. As it has been cooling for the past 4 months we can expect that figure to decline below the 2005 0.747 deg C level and the El Nino influenced 1998 of 0.820 deg C.

2010 will therefore be no higher than the third warmest year, possibly lower.

Continue reading →

Posted in climate data | Tagged , , , , | 147 Comments

New peer reviewed paper shows just how bad the climate models really are

Posted on December 5, 2010 by Anthony Watts

One of the biggest, if not the biggest issues of climate science skepticism is the criticism of over-reliance on computer model projections to suggest future outcomes. In this paper, climate models were hindcast tested against actual surface observations, and found to be seriously lacking. Just have a look at Figure 12 (mean temperature -vs- models for the USA)  from the paper, shown below:

Fig. 12. Various temperature time series spatially integrated over the USA (mean annual), at annual and 30-year scales. Click image for the complete graph

The graph above shows temperature in the blue lines, and model runs in other colors. Not only are there no curve shape matches, temperature offsets are significant as well. In the study, they also looked at precipitation, which fared even worse in correlation. The bottom line: if the models do a poor job of hindcasting, why would they do any better in forecasting? This from the conclusion sums it up pretty well:

…we think that the most important question is not whether GCMs can produce credible estimates of future climate, but whether climate is at all predictable in deterministic terms.

Selected sections of the entire paper, from the Hydrological Sciences Journal is available online here as HTML, and  as PDF ~1.3MB are given below:

A comparison of local and aggregated climate model outputs with observed data

Anagnostopoulos, G. G. , Koutsoyiannis, D. , Christofides, A. , Efstratiadis, A. and Mamassis, N. ‘A comparison of local and aggregated climate model outputs with observed data’, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 55:7, 1094 – 1110

Abstract

Continue reading →

Posted in forecasting, modeling | Tagged , , , | 117 Comments

Sea Ice News #31

Posted on December 5, 2010 by Anthony Watts

I’ve watched the hubbub over the AccuWeather video by Joe Bastardi that called NSIDC’s Sea Ice data into question, because it “seemed” to show lower Arctic Sea Ice values than that of JAXA or DMI. Here they all are:


JAXA AMSR-E Sea Ice Extent -15% or greater – click to enlarge

Continue reading →

Posted in Sea Ice News | Tagged , , , , | 50 Comments

The 4 legged AGW table

Posted on December 5, 2010 by Anthony Watts

Josh of Cartoons By Josh writes:

Kevin Anderson’s post at Bishop Hill intrigued me.

He came up with 4 simple theoretical ‘legs’ upon which to launch his clear view that
Anthropogenic Global Warming was serious and needed immediate attention.
A year ago I would have agreed (hey, lots of us did, ‘cos ‘they’ said it was all true!)

A year on and the picture does not look so clear: subterfuge, lost data, no data,
no warming, false predicitions, misinformation, fudged inqiries, bad science, no science.
It may look clear to Kev, but for the ordinary chap like me it all looks more shoogly than ever.

This cartoon is an attempt to show that – no doubt with huge scientific inaccuracies and
misrepresentations. So take aim, fire and give me your best shot.
I am happy to change this cartoon to make it better!

Continue reading →

Posted in satire | Tagged | 76 Comments

Has Charles Dickens shaped our perception of climate change?

Posted on December 5, 2010 by Anthony Watts

Note: This essay originally appeared last January on The Air Vent. Given our current winter, it as just as prescient now as it was then, so I’m reposting it here. Thanks to Verity Jones and Charles the Moderator for bringing it to my attention – Anthony

Guest post by Tony Brown

Charles Dickens. Victorian winters. A Christmas Carol. Ice fairs on the Frozen Thames. Cold Cold Cold Cold Cold. Dickens has irrevocably moulded the climate views of generations of Anglo Saxon peoples as TV, Films and plays all promote his image of icy winters in that era. Is this view of Dickens winters correct? We take a look at his life through the prism of climate.

Charles Dickens was born in Portsmouth England on Feb 7th 1812.

1812 overall was a very cold year in the UK -the early part of the winter was especially bitter over Europe, marked by Napoleons retreat from Moscow, as illustrated in this painting by Adolph Northen.

http://wapedia.mobi/en/Napoleon’s_invasion_of_Russia

“The air itself,” wrote a French colonel, “was thick with tiny icicles which sparkled in the sun but cut one’s face drawing blood.” Another Frenchman recalled that “it frequently happened that the ice would seal my eyelids shut.” Prince Wilhelm of Baden, one of Napoleon’s commanders, gave the order to march on the morning of Dec. 7, only to discover that “the last drummer boy had frozen to death.”

Continue reading →

Posted in paleoclimatology | Tagged , , , | 121 Comments

Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup

Posted on December 5, 2010 by Anthony Watts

See note from SEPP asking for assistance at the end of this article- Anthony

THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, Executive Vice President Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

The 16th Conference of Parties (COP) of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change started in Cancun with few of the grandiose announcements that occurred at last year’s COP in Copenhagen. The somber mood is reflected by decidedly more modest goals. The failure of cap and trade in the US and Canada, and the results of the US elections are no doubt influencing the festivities. Four Republican Senators sent the State Department a letter stating they oppose the transfer of US funds to other nations in accordance to the agreement reached in Copenhagen, but which is not a formal treaty. The impact of this letter may be significant.

In January, Republicans take control of the US House of Representatives and it is in the House where all revenue bills must originate. Many Republicans are skeptics of human caused global warming. Other related events include the announcement by Japan that it will not agree to an extension to the Kyoto Protocol that is set to expire in 2012. At this time it is difficult to predict what will occur at the COP, but it may be of little significance. Please see Article # 1 and articles under On to Cancun.
Continue reading →

Posted in Climate News Roundup | 31 Comments

Surgical anesthetic gases coming under fire for global warming potential – Only one problem: they haven’t been observed in the atmosphere

Posted on December 5, 2010 by Anthony Watts

The net upward atmospheric radiance spectrum at the tropopause.22 Dashed lines are Planck functions for blackbody emissions at 290, 260, and 220 K, respectively. (B) IR absorption bands for CFC-11 (CCl3F), isoflurane, and sevoflurane. Halogenated organic compounds absorb strongly in ‘the atmospheric window’ region.

The press release below is from the University of Copenhagen Department of Chemistry. The anesthetic gases isofluran, desflurane and sevoflurane are coming under scrutiny for global warming potential. However, what isn’t stated in the press release is this important paragraph of the scientific paper :

There are no production numbers available in the literature
for the anaesthetic agents. The three compounds have not yet been observed in the free atmosphere, and current atmospheric levels are expected to be small (of the order of part per trillion/volume). At these concentrations, when viewed in isolation, their present contribution to the relative forcing of climate change is negligible in comparison with the current forcing of 1.7 Watts/sq meter due to CO2.

Later though, even though they admit they have no numbers on the production quantity of these anaesthetic agents, and “the three compounds have not yet been observed in the free atmosphere”, they use some SWAG to make this claim:

Hence, we conclude that global emissions of inhalation anaesthetics, when measured by the 100 yr GWP, have a contribution to the radiative forcing of climate change which is comparable with that of the CO2 emissions from one coal-fired power plant or approximately 1 million passenger cars.

Gosh, more than a whole coal-fired power plant! Somebody tell China immediately so they can stop building two a week.

===============================================================

Neglected greenhouse gas discovered by atmosphere chemists

When doctors want their patients asleep during surgery they gently turn the gas tap. But Anaesthetic gasses have a global warming potential as high as a refrigerant that is on its way to be banned in the EU. Yet there is no obligation to report anaesthetic gasses along with other greenhouse gasses such as CO2, refrigerants and laughing gas.

Continue reading →

Posted in Alarmism, Climate News, Science | Tagged , , | 118 Comments

More satellite images of snow-bound UK

Posted on December 4, 2010 by Anthony Watts

Snow from space: University of Leicester releases satellite images of snow-bound UK

Satellite images of UK under snow available


IMAGE: This is an image of snow-bound UK from space by MERIS on Nov. 29.  Click here for more information.

Earth observation scientists at the University of Leicester have recorded stunning images of the UK’s winter landscape by orbiting satellites.

European Space Agency satellite instruments have been observing the icy blast in the UK from their vantage points in space.

Leicester scientists have used two instruments, MERIS and AATSR, which have returned stunning images of a snow-bound UK from observations on November 29th and December 1st.

Continue reading →

Posted in snowfall, weather | Tagged , , , | 76 Comments

AGW Defender Flowchart

Posted on December 4, 2010 by Anthony Watts
Submitted by bsfootprint in WUWT Tips and Notes

I’ve been following the online global warming climate change climate disruption debate of late, and I thought it might be helpful to diagram common pro-AGW responses to skeptics.

So: here’s a flowchart I created. It summarizes what I often see while reading pro-AGW/ACC and skeptic blogs, and the often amusing “comment debates” contained therein.

click to enlarge

Source at Scribd

Have I left anything out?

Feel free to leave a comment suggesting additions or improvements. Or telling me just what kind of fool I am.

Equal time

Note to flamers: it’s a humor piece. Feel free to create your own ‘Man-made climate change skeptic’ flowchart if you like, leave a comment on this post and I’ll gladly add a link to relevant responses here.

Have I left anything out?

Feel free to leave a comment suggesting additions or improvements. Or telling me just what kind of fool I am.

Equal time

Note to flamers: it’s a humor piece. Feel free to create your own ‘Man-made climate change skeptic’ flowchart if you like, leave a comment on this post and I’ll gladly add a link to relevant responses here.

Posted in Humor, satire | Tagged , , | 64 Comments

Environmentalist marries Gaia in E-ceremony

Posted on December 4, 2010 by Anthony Watts

From the Huffington Post, a tale of bliss. WUWT Readers may remember Mr. Bloom from a  previous story where he did something outlandish, but it appears he was simply protecting his future bride. There’s no mention at HuffPo if Earth was a willing partner or if it was a shotgun wedding. There’s also no mention of how such a marriage would be consummated. It is assumed the groom will honeymoon with Gaia in one of the polar cities he proposes where we can all escape the “global warming heat wave” at the lower latitudes. Congratulations to the happy couple.  – Anthony

“Man marries Earth in Rare Ceremony”

Danny Bloom in an undated photo, before he married Earth

On December 4, 2010, [Danny Bloom] married his longtime companion and love of his life — Earth!

The festive ceremony was an internet-e­nabled weddiing, online and in real time, in which the groom, 61, married his longtime companion and love of his life — Earth!

The festive ceremony was an internet-e­nabled weddiing, online and in real time, in which Bloom, a Boston native, recited previously keyed-in vows declaring that he would “love and cherish his beloved, Earth, — 4,000,000,­010 years old but still beautiful and comely in her white aura of cloud cover — for the rest of his life or ”until death do him part.”

Earth, for her part, said: Continue reading →

Posted in puzzling things, ridiculae | Tagged , , , , , | 156 Comments

More on the Wikileaks Climate Cables

Posted on December 4, 2010 by Anthony Watts

Wikileaks first climate cables

By Ecotretas

Reading through the few Wikileaks cables related to climate, the tip of the iceberg becomes visible. The most interesting seems to involve the usual pressures related to top level nominations: in this case, the nomination for the IPCC Group II organization comes to light. The original cable is still not known, but it is said to state that Christopher Field had no opposition; the other proposed position for co-chair, Mostafa Jafari, an Iran scientist, was not acceptable, although a qualified scientist. The cable apparently states that Rajendra Pachauri, head of the IPCC, promised background collaboration, and non-identification of the US pressures. The Austrian delegate, which lead the selection process, also agreed on the veto on Jafari.

In other cables, we can see the unreal demands being made by some countries in the World. The developed countries, pressured by alarmists, are “falling all over itself to browbeat them into taking money to go along with a plan to give them more money“. But this is starting to change: “The Danes said they are “fed up”” because the reasons behind the show are no longer climate: “Gisela Ulloa, a member of Bolivian delegations to earlier COP meetings told us the GOB’s position is aimed at creating an alternative development model consistent with Morales’s anti-capitalist philosophy.“

Another profound cable relates to Saudi Arabia. One only has to read the following, to understand what is really happening (bold is my responsibility):

Continue reading →

Posted in politics | Tagged , | 120 Comments

Google Earth announces new “earth engine” at Cancun

Posted on December 4, 2010 by Anthony Watts

It appears to be designed to do photo trend analysis of landsat and other satellite imagery. From the Google Earth Engine page:

A planetary-scale platform for environmental data & analysis

Google Earth Engine brings together the world’s satellite imagery—trillions of scientific measurements dating back more than 25 years—and makes it available online with tools for scientists, independent researchers, and nations to mine this massive warehouse of data to detect changes, map trends and quantify differences to the earth’s surface.

Introducing Google Earth Engine 12/02/2010 08:55:00 AM

(Cross-posted from the Google.org blog)

Today, we launched a new Google Labs product called Google Earth Engine at the International Climate Change Conference in sunny Cancun, Mexico. Google Earth Engine is a new technology platform that puts an unprecedented amount of satellite imagery and data—current and historical—online for the first time. It enables global-scale monitoring and measurement of changes in the earth’s environment. The platform will enable scientists to use our extensive computing infrastructure—the Google “cloud”—to analyze this imagery. Last year, we demonstrated an early prototype. Since then, we have developed the platform, and are excited now to offer scientists around the world access to Earth Engine to implement their applications. Continue reading →

Posted in Cancun Climate Conference, earth, Technology | Tagged , | 59 Comments

Friday Funny – Surreal Climate #5

Posted on December 3, 2010 by Anthony Watts

Josh of cartoonsbyjosh.com has a take on Cancun….

Continue reading →

Posted in Humor, satire | 15 Comments

Wikileaks cables: on climate, IPCC, Copenhagen

Posted on December 3, 2010 by Anthony Watts

This just in, I’m blogging from a public terminal at a hospital, more later:

WikiLeaks cables: Cancún climate talks doomed to fail, says EU president

Herman van Rompuy dismisses Copenhagen climate summit as ‘incredible disaster’ and expects Cancún to be no better

See links below:

Continue reading →

Posted in Cancun Climate Conference, Uncategorized | Tagged , , | 50 Comments

Nov. 2010 UAH Global Temperature Update: +0.38 deg. C

Posted on December 3, 2010 by charles the moderator

from drroyspencer.com

December 3rd, 2010 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

YR MON GLOBE NH SH TROPICS
2010 1 0.648 0.860 0.436 0.681
2010 2 0.603 0.720 0.486 0.791
2010 3 0.653 0.850 0.455 0.726
2010 4 0.501 0.799 0.203 0.633
2010 5 0.534 0.775 0.292 0.708
2010 6 0.436 0.550 0.323 0.476
2010 7 0.489 0.635 0.342 0.420
2010 8 0.511 0.674 0.347 0.364
2010 9 0.603 0.555 0.650 0.285
2010 10 0.426 0.370 0.482 0.156
2010 11 0.381 0.513 0.249 -0.071
 Continue reading →

Posted in climate data, measurement, Sea Surface Temperature | 111 Comments