Updated Long-Term Projections for Social Security
August 2008
All of the years referred to in this paper are calendar years.
Numbers in the text and tables may not add up to totals because of rounding.
Preface
This Congressional Budget Office (CBO) paper updates CBO’s previously published long-term projections of the Social Security program’s finances. The projections cover the 75-year period spanning 2008 to 2082. The paper was prepared by Noah Meyerson, Jonathan Schwabish, Michael Simpson, and Julie Topoleski of CBO’s Long-Term Modeling Division under the supervision of Joyce Manchester. Charles Pineles-Mark provided computer programming support.
Leah Mazade edited the paper, and Kate Kelly proofread it. Maureen Costantino designed the cover and prepared the paper for publication. Lenny Skutnik printed copies of the paper, Linda Schimmel handled the print distribution, and Simone Thomas produced the electronic version for CBO’s Web site.
Contents
The Finances of the Social Security Program
The Uncertainty of Projections of Social Security’s Finances
Summarized Outlays and Revenues
The Distribution of Social Security Taxes and Benefits
Lifetime Payroll Taxes and Lifetime Benefits for Workers, Dependents, and Survivors
Assumptions Used in CBO’s Analysis
Appendix A: Changes in CBO’s Long-Term Social Security Projections Since December 2007
1. Comparing Revenues from Income Taxes on Benefits Under Two Long-Term Fiscal Scenarios
1. Potential Ranges of Social Security Outlays and Revenues as a Percentage of GDP Under the Scheduled Benefits Scenario, 1985 to 2082
2. Social Security Outlays as a Percentage of Gross Domestic Product Under the Scheduled Benefits and Payable Benefits Scenarios, 1985 to 2082
3. Potential Range of the Social Security Trust Fund Ratio Under the Scheduled Benefits Scenario, 1985 to 2082
4. Probability That the Social Security Trust Funds Will Have Been Exhausted, by Year, 2008 to 2082
5. Median First-Year Social Security Retirement Benefits Under the Scheduled Benefits and Payable Benefits Scenarios, by Birth Cohort
6. Median First-Year Social Security Disability Benefits Under the Scheduled Benefits and Payable Benefits Scenarios, by Birth Cohort
7. Median Replacement Rates for Retired-Worker Social Security Beneficiaries Under the Scheduled Benefits and Payable Benefits Scenarios, by Birth Cohort
8.Median Replacement Rates for Disabled-Worker Social Security Beneficiaries Under the Scheduled Benefits and Payable Benefits Scenarios, by Birth Cohort
9. Median Lifetime Social Security Retirement Benefits Under the Scheduled Benefits and Payable Benefits Scenarios, by Birth Cohort
10. Median Lifetime Social Security Disability Benefits Under the Scheduled Benefits and Payable Benefits Scenarios, by Birth Cohort
11. Potential Range of Lifetime Social Security Payroll Taxes Under the Scheduled Benefits Scenario, by Birth Cohort and Lifetime Earnings
12. Potential Range of Lifetime Social Security Benefits Under the Scheduled Benefits and Payable Benefits Scenarios, by Birth Cohort and Lifetime Earnings
13. Potential Range of the Ratio of Lifetime Social Security Benefits to Lifetime Taxes Under the Scheduled Benefits and Payable Benefits Scenarios, by Birth Cohort and Lifetime Earnings
1. Social Security Revenues and Outlays as a Percentage of Gross Domestic Product in Selected Years Under the Scheduled Benefits Scenario
2. Summarized Social Security Revenues, Outlays, and Surpluses or Deficits for Selected Periods Under the Scheduled Benefits Scenario
3. Probability That Social Security Outlays Will Exceed Revenues by Specified Percentages in Selected Years Under the Scheduled Benefits Scenario
4. Social Security Benefits Received by Retired Workers Under the Scheduled and Payable Benefits Scenarios, by Birth Cohort, Lifetime Earnings Level, and Sex
5. Social Security Benefits Received by Disabled Workers Under the Scheduled and Payable Benefits Scenarios, by Birth Cohort and Age of Onset of Disability
6. Probability That the Social Security Trust Funds Will Be Sufficient to Pay Specified Percentages of Scheduled Benefits, by Birth Cohort
