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An Analysis of the President's Budgetary Proposals for Fiscal Year 2005 |
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March 2004 |
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Notes
Unless otherwise indicated, the years referred to in this report are fiscal years.
Numbers in the text and tables may not add up to totals because of rounding.
Supplemental Data on Major Entitlement Programs:
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This Congressional Budget Office (CBO) analysis of the President's budgetary proposals for fiscal year 2005 was prepared at the request of the Senate Committee on Appropriations. The report updates CBO's preliminary analysis, which was released on February 27, 2004. That analysis incorporated estimates from the Joint Committee on Taxation that subsequently have been slightly revised. Those updated revenue estimates as well as other minor corrections are reflected in this report.
The analysis was produced by the staffs of CBO's Budget Analysis, Macroeconomic Analysis, and Tax Analysis Divisions under the supervision of Robert Sunshine, Robert Dennis, and Thomas Woodward, respectively. The baseline revenue estimates and the estimates of certain revenue proposals were prepared by CBO; most of the estimates of the President's revenue proposals were prepared by the Joint Committee on Taxation.
Barry Blom of CBO's Projections Unit wrote Chapter 1 under the supervision of Jeff Holland, with assistance from Mark Booth, John Peterson, David Weiner, and the staff of the State and Local Government Cost Estimates Unit. Ben Page of the Macroeconomic Analysis Division wrote Chapter 2 and Appendixes A and B with assistance from Bob Arnold, Paul Burnham, Ufuk Demiroglu, Tracy Foertsch, Mark Lasky, Shinichi Nishiyama, Larry Ozanne, and Frank Russek.
Leah Mazade edited the report, and Christian Spoor proofread it. Maureen Costantino prepared the report for publication. Lenny Skutnik printed the initial copies, and Annette Kalicki produced the electronic versions for CBO's Web site.
Douglas Holtz-Eakin
Director
March 2004
Tables |
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1-1. |
Comparison of Projected Deficits and Surpluses in CBO's Estimate of the President's Budget and CBO's March Baseline |
1-2. |
CBO's Estimate of the President's Budget |
1-3. |
Sources of Differences Between CBO's and the Administration's Estimates of the President's Budget |
1-4. |
Discretionary Spending Under the President's Budget and CBO's March Baseline |
1-5. |
Comparison of Discretionary Budget Authority Enacted for 2004 and Requested by the President for 2005, by Budget Function |
1-6. |
CBO's Estimate of the Effect of the President's Budget on Baseline Deficits |
1-7. |
Comparison of CBO's, the Administration's, and Private-Sector Economic Projections for Calendar Years 2004 Through 2009 |
1-8. |
Changes in CBO's Baseline Projections of the Deficit or Surplus Since January 2004 |
1-9. |
CBO's March Baseline Projections |
1-10. |
Comparison of CBO's March Baseline and the Administration's Published February Baseline |
2-1. |
CBO's Estimates of How the President's Budget Would Affect the Deficit After Accounting for Economic Effects |
2-2. |
CBO's Estimates of Effective Marginal Federal Tax Rates on Labor Income |
2-3. |
CBO's Estimates of Effective Marginal Federal Tax Rates on Capital Income |
2-4. |
CBO's Estimates of How the President's Budget Would Affect Real Gross Domestic Product |
2-5. |
CBO's Year-by-Year Forecast and Projections for Fiscal Years 2004 Through 2014 |
2-6. |
The Budgetary Implications of the Macroeconomic Effects |
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Figures |
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2-1. |
CBO's Estimates, Using Various Models, of How the President's Budget Would Affect the Deficit After Accounting for Economic Effects |
2-2. |
Selected Inputs Used for CBO's Estimates |
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Box |
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1-1. |
Grants-in-Aid |
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