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AN ANALYSIS OF THE PRESIDENT'S
BUDGETARY PROPOSALS FOR
FISCAL YEAR 1995
 
 
April 1994
 
 
NOTES

Unless otherwise indicated, all years referred to in Chapter 2 are calendar years, and all years in other chapters and Appendix A are fiscal years.

Unemployment rates throughout the report are calculated on the basis of the civilian labor force.

Numbers in the text and tables of this report may not add to totals because of rounding.
 
 
Preface

This analysis of the President's budget for fiscal year 1995 was prepared at the request of the Senate Committee on Appropriations. The report discusses the President's policies in terms of changes from the Congressional Budget Office's (CBO's) baseline budget projections for 1995 through 1999. It provides estimates of the budgetary impact of the Administration's proposals using CBO's economic assumptions and technical estimating methods.

This report was prepared by the staffs of the Budget Analysis, Macroeconomic Analysis, and Tax Analysis divisions under the supervision of C.G. Nuckols, Robert Dennis, and Rosemary D. Marcuss. James Horney wrote Chapter 1, with contributions by Richard A. Kasten, Kathy A. Ruffing, and Paul N. Van de Water. Chapter 2 was written by Adrienne Kearney, with research assistance from Laurie Brown. Michael Miller wrote Chapter 3, and Kathy A. Ruffing wrote Appendix A. The baseline revenue estimates were prepared under the direction of Richard A. Kasten. The estimates of the President's revenue proposals were prepared by the Joint Committee on Taxation. The principal contributors to the revenue and spending estimates and analyses are listed in Appendix B.

Paul L. Houts supervised the editing and production of the report. Major portions were edited by Paul L. Houts, Sherwood D. Kohn, and Leah Mazade. Christian Spoor provided editorial assistance during production. The authors owe thanks to Marion Curry, Janice M. Johnson, Linda Lewis, and L. Rae Roy, who assisted in the preparation of the report. Kathryn Quattrone and Martina Wojak-Piotrow prepared the report for final publication.
 

Robert D. Reischauer
Director
April 1994
 
 

Contents
 

ONE - THE PRESIDENT'S BUDGETARY PROPOSALS

TWO - COMPARISON OF ECONOMIC FORECASTS

THREE - THE ADMINISTRATION'S DEFENSE BUDGET

APPENDIXES

A - CBO Baseline Budget Projections
B - Major Contributors to the Revenue and Spending Projections
 
TABLES
 
1.  CBO' s Estimates of the President's Budgetary Proposals
2.  CBO's Estimates of the President's Budgetary Proposals Excluding Health
3.  CBO's Reestimates of the President's Budgetary Proposals Excluding Health
4.  The Administration's Proposals for Discretionary Spending in Fiscal Year 1995
5.  Estimates of Changes in the President's Budgetary Proposals for Mandatory Spending and Offsetting Receipts
6.  Estimated On-Budget and Social Security Effects of the Administration's Health Proposal
7.  Comparison of Congressional Budget Office, Administration, and Blue Chip Short-Run Economic Forecasts, Calendar Years 1992-1995
8.  Comparison of Federal Reserve, Congressional Budget Office, and Administration Economic Projections for 1994
9.  Comparison of Congressional Budget Office, Administration, and Blue Chip Economic Projections, Calendar Years 1993-1999
10.  Growth in Labor Productivity in the Nonfarm Business Sector
11.  Effects of CBO's Economic Projections on Estimates of the Administration's Budget
12.  The President's Budget for National Defense for the 1995-1999 Period as Estimated by CBO
13.  Estimated Increases in the GDP Deflator
14.  Estimated Pay Raises for Military and Civilian Employees
A-1.  Changes in CBO Baseline Deficit Projections
A-2.  CBO Baseline Deficit Projections
A-3.  CBO Baseline Budget Projections, Assuming Compliance with Discretionary Spending Caps
A-4.  CBO Baseline Projections for Mandatory Spending, Excluding Deposit Insurance
A-5.  How Tight Are the Discretionary Caps?
A-6. The Budget Outlook Through 2004
 
FIGURES
 
1.  Comparison of Congressional Budget Office and Administration Economic Assumptions
2.  Quarterly Real Short-Term Interest Rates
 
BOXES
 
1.  Budget Enforcement Act Scorekeeping Rule 3
2.  The President's Proposals for Civilian Personnel

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