Long-Term Budgetary Issues

2010

Preliminary Analysis of Rivlin-Ryan Health Care Proposal
November 17, 2010 pdf
Letter to the Honorable Paul Ryan

CBO's 2010 Long-Term Projections for Social Security: Additional Information
October 2010pdfadditional infoblog post

The Economic Outlook and Fiscal Policy Choices
September 28, 2010pdfchartsblog post
Testimony before the Committee on the Budget, United States Senate

Historical Data on the Federal Debt
August 5, 2010pdfadditional info

Related:

Original and Revised Projections of Crowding-Out Effects in The Long-Term Budget Outlook, 2010
August 3, 2010pdf
Letter to the Honorable Kent Conrad

Related:

Federal Debt and the Risk of a Fiscal Crisis
July 27, 2010pdfblog post
Economic and Budget Issue Brief

Related:

Social Security Disability Insurance: Participation Trends and Their Fiscal Implications
July 22, 2010pdfblog post
Economic and Budget Issue Brief

Social Security Policy Options
July 2010summarypdfadditional infoblog post

Related:

The Long-Term Budget Outlook
June 2010summarypdfadditional infoblog post
NOTE: To correct errors in projections of how the growth of federal debt would reduce, or crowd out, private investment and thereby lower gross domestic product in the United States, Figures 1-5 and 1-6 and related text were revised on August 3, 2010. The changes affect pages 19 through 22 in the pdf of the entire document. (The summary was not affected.)

 

2009

"Exit Strategy" for Fiscal Policy
December 2009pdfblog post
CBO Director Doug Elmendorf's presentation to The Group of Thirty

Background Paper: How Slower Growth in the Labor Force Could Affect the Return on Capital
October 2009pdfblog post

CBO's Long-Term Projections for Social Security: 2009 Update
August 2009pdfadditional infoblog post

The Long-Term Budget Outlook
July 16, 2009htmlpdfwebcastblog post
Testimony before the Committee on the Budget, United States Senate

Background Paper: CBO's Long-Term Model: An Overview
June 2009pdf

The Long-Term Budget Outlook
June 2009summaryhtmlpdfadditional infowebcastblog post

Federal Budget Challenges
April 2009pdfblog post
CBO Director Doug Elmendorf's Introductory Economics lecture at Harvard University

 

2008

Updated Long-Term Projections for Social Security
August 2008htmlpdfadditional infoblog post

Long-Term Effects of Indexing the Alternative Minimum Tax and Extending the Tax Reductions of 2001 and 2003
July 17, 2008pdfblog post
Letter to the Honorable Kent Conrad

The Long-Term Budget Outlook and Options for Slowing the Growth of Health Care Costs
June 17, 2008htmlpdfwebcastblog post
Testimony before the Committee on Finance, United States Senate

The Long-Term Economic Effects of Some Alternative Budget Policies
May 19, 2008htmlpdfblog post
Letter to the Honorable Paul Ryan

Growing Disparities in Life Expectancy
April 17, 2008htmlpdfblog post

The Long-Term Budgetary Effects of Three Specified Policy Scenarios
March 14, 2008htmlpdfblog post
Letter to the Honorable John M. Spratt Jr.

Technological Change and the Growth of Health Care Spending
January 2008htmlpdfchartsblog post

Testimony on Growth in Health Care Costs
January 31, 2008htmlpdfchartswebcastblog post
Testimony before the Committee on the Budget, United States Senate

Society of Government Economists Distinguished Lecture on Economics
January 2008pdfblog post
CBO Director Peter Orszag's presentation at the annual meeting of Allied Social Science Associations

 

2007

The Long-Term Budget Outlook
December 2007htmlpdfadditional infowebcastblog post

Related:

Testimony on the Long-Term Budget Outlook
December 13, 2007htmlpdfchartswebcastblog post
Testimony before the Committee on the Budget, U.S. House of Representatives

The Long-Term Outlook for Health Care Spending
November 2007pdfaudiowebcast
Presentation at the American Enterprise Institute. (Also delivered on November 14, 2007, to the Tax Council and on November 11, 2007, to the New America Foundation)

The Long-Term Outlook for Health Care Spending
November 2007htmlpdfadditional infoblog post

Related:

Testimony on the Federal Government's Liabilities Under the Nuclear Waste Policy Act
October 4, 2007htmlpdfwebcast
Testimony before the Committee on the Budget, U.S. House of Representatives

Potential Cost Savings from the Pre-Disaster Mitigation Program
September 2007pdf

Financing Projected Spending in the Long Run
July 9, 2007htmlpdf
Letter to the Honorable Judd Gregg

Testimony on Health Care and the Budget: Issues and Challenges for Reform
June 21, 2007htmlpdfwebcast
Testimony before the Committee on the Budget, United States Senate

Long-Term Spending on Entitlement Programs
March 8, 2007pdf
Letter to the Honorable Jeb Hensarling

Testimony on Future Medical Spending by the Department of Veterans Affairs
February 15, 2007htmlpdf
Testimony before the Subcommittee on Military Construction, Veterans Affairs, and Related Agencies, Committee on Appropriations, U.S. House of Representatives

 

2006

Is Social Security Progressive?
December 15, 2006pdf

Designing a Premium Support System for Medicare
December 2006pdf

Opening Remarks at the Director's Conference on Long-Term Budget Challenges
December 2006pdf

Comparing Budget and Accounting Measures of the Federal Government's Fiscal Condition
December 2006pdf

Alternatives for Future U.S. Space-Launch Capabilities
October 2006pdf

Testimony on Medicaid Spending Growth and Options for Controlling Costs
July 13, 2006pdf
Testimony before the Special Committee on Aging, United States Senate

Projections of Net Migration to the United States
June 2006pdf

Updated Long-Term Projections for Social Security
June 2006pdfadditional info

Long-Term Analysis of S. 2427, the Sustainable Solvency First for Social Security Act of 2006
April 5, 2006pdfadditional info
Letter to the Honorable Robert F. Bennett

Long-Term Analysis of the Liebman-MacGuineas-Samwick Social Security Proposal
February 8, 2006pdfadditional info
Letter to the Honorable Jim Kolbe

 

2005

Analysis of Potential Claims Under S. 852, the Fairness in Asbestos Injury Resolution Act of 2005
December 19, 2005pdf
Letter to the Honorable Arlen Specter

Global Population Aging in the 21st Century and Its Economic Implications
December 2005pdf

The Long-Term Budget Outlook
December 2005pdfadditional info

Letter to the Honorable Arlen Specter and the Honorable Patrick J. Leahy regarding S. 852, the Fairness in Asbestos Injury Act of 2005
November 16, 2005pdf

Background Paper: Quantifying Uncertainty in the Analysis of Long-Term Social Security Projections
November 2005pdf

Long-Term Economic Effects of Chronically Large Federal Deficits
October 13, 2005pdf

The Risk Exposure of the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation
September 2005pdf

The Effects of S. 662 on the Long-Term Financial Outlook of the U.S. Postal Service
September 1, 2005pdf
Letter to the Honorable Judd Gregg

Testimony on Multiemployer Pension Plans
June 28, 2005pdf
Testimony before the Subcommittee on Select Revenue Measures, Committee on Ways and Means, U.S. House of Representatives

Testimony on the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation: Financial Condition, Potential Risks, and Policy Options
June 15, 2005htmlpdf
Testimony before the Committee on the Budget, United States Senate

Testimony on Estimating the Costs of the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation
June 9, 2005htmlpdf
Testimony before the Committee on the Budget, U.S. House of Representatives

Testimony on Implications of Demographic Changes for the Budget and the Economy
May 19, 2005pdf
Testimony before the Committee on Ways and Means

Remittances: International Payments by Migrants
May 2005pdf

Testimony on the Cost and Financing of Long-Term Care Services
April 27, 2005htmlpdf
Testimony before the Subcommittee on Health, Committee on Energy and Commerce, U.S. House of Representatives

Testimony on the Cost and Financing of Long-Term Care Services
April 19, 2005htmlpdf
Testimony before the Subcommittee on Health, Committee on Ways and Means, U.S. House of Representatives

Long-Term Budget Simulations: Fiscal Impacts of Two Different Tax Policies
March 14, 2005htmlpdf
Letter to the Honorable Nancy Pelosi

The Potential Cost of Meeting Demand for Veterans' Health Care
March 2005htmlpdf

Testimony on the Economic Costs of Long-Term Federal Obligations
February 16, 2005htmlpdf
Testimony before the Committee on the Budget, United States Senate

 

2004

Long-Term Analysis of the Diamond-Orszag Social Security Plan
December 22, 2004htmlpdf
Letter to the Honorable Larry E. Craig

A Description of the Immigrant Population
November 2004htmlpdf

Measures of the U.S. Government's Fiscal Position Under Current Law
August 2004htmlpdf

Long-Term Analysis of Plan 2 of the President's Commission to Strengthen Social Security
July 21, 2004htmlpdf
Letter to the Honorable Larry E. Craig

Long-Term Analysis of H.R. 3821, the Bipartisan Retirement Security Act of 2004
July 21, 2004htmlpdf
Letter to the Honorable Jim Kolbe

The Outlook for Social Security
June 2004htmlpdf

Tax-Deferred Retirement Savings in Long-Term Revenue Projections
May 2004htmlpdf

 

2003

The Long-Term Budget Outlook
December 2003htmlpdf

Comparing Budgetary and Trust Fund Measures of the Outlook for Social Security and Medicare
October 10, 2003htmlpdf

Growth in Medical Spending by the Department of Defense
September 9, 2003htmlpdf

Growth in Medical Spending by the Department of Defense
September 2003htmlpdf

Testimony on the Economic Costs of Long-Term Federal Obligations
July 24, 2003htmlpdf
Testimony before the Committee on the Budget, U.S. House of Representatives

The Future Growth of Social Security: It's Not Just Society's Aging
July 1, 2003htmlpdf

Acquiring Financial Assets to Fund Future Entitlements
June 16, 2003htmlpdf

Social Security Reform: The Use of Private Securities and the Need for Economic Growth
January 3, 2003htmlpdf

Evaluating and Accounting for Federal Investment in Corporate Stocks and Other Private Securities
January 2003htmlpdf

 

2002

The Impact of Social Security and Medicare on the Federal Budget
November 14, 2002htmlpdf

The Impact of Trust Fund Programs on Federal Budget Surpluses and Deficits
November 4, 2002htmlpdf

Federal Debt and the Commitments of Federal Trust Funds
October 25, 2002htmlpdf

Social Security and the Federal Budget: The Necessity of Maintaining a Comprehensive Long-Range Perspective
August 1, 2002htmlpdf

The Looming Budgetary Impact of Society's Aging
July 3, 2002htmlpdf

A 125-Year Picture of the Federal Government's Share of the Economy, 1950 to 2075
June 14, 2002htmlpdf

 

2001

Uncertainty in Social Security's Long-Term Finances: A Stochastic Analysis
December 2001htmlpdf

 

2000

The Long-Term Budget Outlook
October 2000htmlpdf

 

1999

The Long-Term Budget Outlook: An Update
December 1999htmlpdf

 

1998

Long-Term Budgetary Pressures and Policy Options
May 1998htmlpdf

 

1997

An Economic Model for Long-Run Budget Simulations
July 1997pdf

Long-Term Budgetary Pressures and Policy Options
March 1997htmlpdf

Testimony on Long-Term Budget and Outlook Options
January 22, 1997htmlpdf

 

1996

Testimony on the Long-Run Budgetary Impacts of an Aging Population
March 13, 1996htmlpdf
Testimony before the Committee on the Budget, U.S. House of Representatives

 

1992

Testimony on How Budget Deficits Affect Long-Term Economic Growth
June 5, 1992htmlpdf
Testimony before the Subcommittee on Deficits, Debt Management and International Debt, Committee on Finance, United States Senate

 

1991

Budget Projections Through 2001
October 1991pdf

 

1975

Testimony on Long Range Budget Projections
April 3, 1975pdf
Testimony before the Joint Economic Committee