Global Warming in New England: Slushier Slopes and Faded Foliage

Life and economic activity across New England is marked by the seasons – maple sugaring in the spring, trips to the beach in the summer, the riot of color of the fall foliage, and the swoosh of skis and skates in the winter. This familiar cycle is already changing in noticeable ways.

Changing seasons

Since the 1970's average winter temperatures have risen around 4 degrees Fahrenheit in the Northeast region. If the current rate of heat-trapping emissions continues, by 2070 summers in Boston will feel like those of South Carolina today. By the end of the century, winter and summer temperatures in the region could rise up to 12 and 14 degrees Fahrenheit, respectively  Cities across New England, which historically experience only one or two days per year above 100 degrees each summer, could average 20 such days per summer, while more southern cities such as Hartford could average nearly 30 days.

The character of the seasons will change significantly. Spring could arrive three weeks earlier, with summer lengthening by about three weeks, autumn becoming warmer and drier, and winter becoming shorter and milder.

Slushy slopes and faded foliage

Changes in climate will also lead to changes in recreational activities for New Englanders. Warmer temperatures and a lack of snow are already significantly reducing the length and quality of the ski season. Economically, the difference in revenue between a cold, snowy winter and a warm, slushy winter is significant. In New Hampshire alone, warm, slushy winters reduce downhill skiers by 14 percent, cross-country skiers by 30 percent, and snowmobile license sales decline 26 percent.

As winter temperatures rise, more precipitation will fall as rain instead of snow; and what little snow accumulates will melt more quickly. By the end of the century, the length of the winter snow season could be cut in half, crippling winter tourism in the region and making ski areas without significant artificial snow-making unviable. Under a business-as-usual scenario, by the end of the century only western Maine would be expected to retain a reliable ski season.
            
Because of these seasonal and climate changes, New England’s famous autumn foliage would occur later and become far less dramatic, a manifestation of the changing character of the region’s forests. The center of suitable habitat for most of the region’s tree species will continue shifting northward, as much as 500 miles by late-century. Some tree species that generate the region’s brilliant fall foliage may succumb to climate stress, increased competition, and other pressures. The number of spruce and fir trees is expected to decline, greatly exacerbating stresses on the pulp and paper industry in New England, particularly in Maine, where the forest-based manufacturing industry is integral to the state’s economy.

What’s Cape Cod without the cod? 

Declines in recreational and industrial fishing will be substantial throughout New England. New England dockside ports sell close to $700 million a year in fish and shellfish. Even if global warming emissions are reduced now, the heat-trapping emissions already in the atmosphere will continue to warm the seas for a number of years into the future. This inevitable increase will likely lead to a disappearance in cod in the region’s waters south of Cape Cod, and conditions would become unfavorable for cod in the legendary Georges Bank region.

The lobster fisheries off Long Island Sound and off the coast from Cape Cod down to through Rhode Island are also expected to experience significant decline by mid-century. In the region’s rivers, cold water fish like brook, rainbow, and brown trout will not be able to survive where shallower, unshaded, and slower moving rivers rise in temperature.

Watch out for that next Nor’easter

 The densely populated coastal regions in New England will become increasingly vulnerable to global warming impacts. More than one out of six Americans now lives in the densely populated coastal counties of the Northeast. As sea levels rise and warmer sea temperatures feed the intensity of coastal storms, extreme weather events and flooding will increase.

Even relatively conservative climate projections for Boston suggest global warming will raise sea levels enough by the end of the century that a winter nor’easter will cause Boston Harbor to flood parts of East Boston and the downtown Financial District. With higher sea levels, a category 2 hurricane could flood South Boston, Back Bay, and Cambridge. 

Northeast working towards solutions

New England is a center of global leadership in technology, finance, and innovation. Ranked against the nations of the world, it is also the seventh largest source of carbon dioxide emissions from energy use. In an effort to reduce global warming pollution, the New England states have joined with other Northeastern and Mid-Atlantic states to form the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI). This cooperative effort will initially focus on reducing carbon dioxide from the electricity sector and will help the New England states meet their goal of reducing global warming pollution 10% below 1990 levels by 2020.

Boston Mayor Thomas Menino has also pledged to cut global warming emissions in Boston's city government by 80 percent below 1990 levels by the year 2050. His vision for a city energy efficiency plan is also the largest in the nation.

University of New Hampshire Research Professor Cameron Wake spoke to this opportunity and responsibility facing the region in his testimony before the Select Committee on June 4, 2007 from the top of Cannon Mountain in New Hampshire: “The Northeast is well positioned to be a technology and policy leader in reducing emissions and driving the national and international progress essential to providing our children and grandchildren with a safe and stable future climate.”