The Budget and Economic Outlook:
Fiscal Years 2008 to 2018
January 2008
Unless otherwise indicated, all of the years referred to in describing the economic outlook are calendar years; other years referred to in this report are federal fiscal years (which run from October 1 to September 30).
Numbers in the text and tables may not add up to totals because of rounding.
Figures on the cover and in Chapters 2 and 4 use shaded vertical bars to indicate periods of recession as well as dashed vertical lines to separate actual from projected data. (A recession extends from the peak of a business cycle to its trough.)
Supplemental data for this analysis are available on the home page of the Congressional Budget Office’s Web site under "Budget Projections" and "Economic Projections."
Preface
This volume is one of a series of reports on the state of the budget and the economy that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) issues each year. It satisfies the requirement of section 202(e) of the Congressional Budget Act of 1974 for CBO to submit to the Committees on the Budget periodic reports about fiscal policy and to furnish baseline projections of the federal budget. In accordance with CBO’s mandate to provide impartial analysis, the report makes no recommendations.
The baseline spending projections were prepared by the staff of CBO’s Budget Analysis Division under the supervision of Peter Fontaine, Keith Fontenot, Theresa Gullo, Janet Airis, Tom Bradley, Kim Cawley, Jeffrey Holland, Sarah Jennings, Leo Lex, and Sam Papenfuss. The revenue estimates were prepared by the staff of the Tax Analysis Division under the supervision of Thomas Woodward, Frank Sammartino, Mark Booth, and David Weiner, with assistance from the Joint Committee on Taxation. (A detailed list of contributors to the revenue and spending projections appears in Appendix G.)
The economic outlook presented in Chapter 2 was prepared by CBO’s Macroeconomic Analysis Division under the direction of Robert Dennis, Kim Kowalewski, and John Peterson. Robert Arnold and Christopher Williams produced the economic forecast and projections. David Brauer, Ufuk Demiroglu, Naomi Griffin, Douglas Hamilton, Juann Hung, Mark Lasky, Angelo Mascaro, Benjamin Page, Frank Russek, David Torregrosa, and Steven Weinberg contributed to the analysis. Adam Weber and Eric Miller provided research assistance.
An early version of CBO’s economic forecast was discussed at a meeting of the agency’s Panel of Economic Advisers. At that time, members of the panel were Martin Baily, Richard Berner, Jared Bernstein, Martin Feldstein, Robert J. Gordon, Robert E. Hall, Lawrence Katz, Allan H. Meltzer, Laurence H. Meyer, William D. Nordhaus, Rudolph G. Penner, Adam S. Posen, James Poterba, Alice Rivlin, Nouriel Roubini, Diane C. Swonk, and Stephen P. Zeldes. Luci Ellis and Mark Zandi attended the panel’s meeting as guests. Although CBO’s outside advisers provided considerable assistance, they are not responsible for the contents of this report.
Jeffrey Holland wrote the summary. Christina Hawley Anthony, with assistance from Eric Schatten, wrote Chapter 1 (David Newman authored Box 1-1). Naomi Griffin wrote Chapter 2, with assistance from Kim Kowalewski, Angelo Mascaro, John Peterson, and David Torregrosa. Barry Blom wrote Chapter 3, with assistance from Eric Schatten (Shinobu Suzuki wrote Box 3-2; Gregory Hitz and Dave Hull wrote Box 3-3). Mark Booth wrote Chapter 4, with assistance from Barbara Edwards, Zachary Epstein, Pamela Greene, and Andrew Langan. Amber Marcellino wrote Appendix A, with assistance from Pamela Greene. Eric Schatten wrote AppendixB. Luis Serna wrote Appendix C (Frank Russek wrote Box C-1). Frank Russek also wrote Appendix D, for which Luis Serna compiled the tables. Adam Weber and Eric Miller compiled Appendix E. Amber Marcellino compiled Appendix F. Mark Hadley and Eric Schatten produced the glossary.
Christine Bogusz, Kate Kelly, Loretta Lettner, Leah Mazade, and John Skeen edited the report. Denise Jordan-Williams and Linda Lewis Harris assisted in its preparation. Maureen Costantino designed the cover and prepared the report for publication. Lenny Skutnik printed the initial copies, Linda Schimmel handled the print distribution, and Simone Thomas and Annette Kalicki prepared the electronic version for CBO’s Web site.
