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| Jobs: The Year Ahead |
February 10, 2004 |
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Dear Friends,
The title of the talk was pretty bold: "Be Prepared for a Fabulous Year in 2004.” James Smith, Chief Economist with the Society of Industrial and Office Realtors came to the Sheraton in Old Town to talk about what to expect for our economy this year.
New Mexico was in the top seven in the nation in job creation in 2003. While other states were losing jobs, we added almost 10,000 jobs for a growth rate of 1.3 percent. UNM`s Bureau of Business and Economic Research estimates even stronger job growth in 2004, about 1.9 percent.
Construction jobs have grown in the last year and so have mining and oil and gas jobs. Federal employment has stayed steady or grown and while there were some high tech manufacturing losses, like Phillips Semiconductor, New Mexico factories generally stayed open, busy and employing people.
But there are other good signs too. Our nation`s economy grew at about 4 percent last year and blue chip economists predict that it will grow at between 3.5 and 4 percent in 2004 with inflation in check and interest rates remaining low so that small businesses can afford to borrow and grow, and people can afford home mortgages.
And productivity continues to boom. While it grew more in the manufacturing sector than in other parts of our economy in 2003, overall, it was 5 percent growth in 2003, on top of 5.3 percent growth in productivity in 2002. That 2002 growth in productivity was the highest for any year since 1951. That means we are producing more at lower cost, which helps keep consumer prices low and helps us export to other countries.
Manufacturing is growing again and exports jumped 19.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2003 -- the biggest quarterly increase since 1996.
In his speech in Old Town, Smith was pretty clear what he thought this year will bring – “Enjoy the best economic year in two decades in 2004."
That`s good news for New Mexico. But even continued positive economic news does not mean our job is done. I`ll continue to support policies that promote job creation and support small business -- where 8 of every 10 new jobs are created. And I`ll continue to work with others to attract and keep good jobs in New Mexico.
Wish you were here,
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