U.S. Congress Joint Economic Committee; Chairman, Sen. Charles Schumer; Vice Chair, Rep. Carolyn Maloney

WEEKLY ECONOMIC DIGEST: Wholesale Prices and Retail Sales Fall

September 15, 2008

Unemployment Insurance Claims Remain at Recession Levels

Producer prices declined last month. The Department of Labor reported that the Producer Price Index for Finished Goods (PPI) declined 0.9 percent on a seasonally-adjusted basis in August, following an increase of 1.2 percent in July and 1.8 percent in June. Food and especially energy continue to dominate the index. While food prices rose 0.3 percent last month, energy prices fell 4.6 percent, which contributed to the index’s decline. (See Chart) Excluding food and energy, the producer price index rose 0.2 percent in August, following a 0.7 percent jump in July.

Retail sales are weaker than expected. The Census Bureau reported that advance estimates of total retail and food services sales fell 0.3 percent in August 2008. This current decline follows a 0.5 percent decline in July. Excluding auto sales, retail sales were down 0.7 percent. Changes in retail sales are an indicator of broad consumer spending patterns. Consumers may be cutting back spending because of mounting job losses, and because house price declines have reduced household wealth and access to credit.

Pending home sales decline. The National Association of Realtors reported that pending home sales declined 3.2 percent in July after a revised 5.8 percent gain in June. Pending home sales are a leading indicator of the housing market as they are a sign that an actual purchase contract has been signed. Slowing levels of pending sales can be attributed to tighter credit conditions, which continue to prevent buyers from taking advantage of lower prices and falling interest rates.

Claims for unemployment insurance fell last week, but remain high.   The Department of Labor reported that advance numbers for seasonally-adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance were 445,000, which is a decrease from the previous week’s figure of 451,000. However, the 4-week moving average, which provides a better sense of an underlying trend in labor-market weakness, was at 440,000, an increase from the previous week.

THE WEEK AHEAD

DAY RELEASE
Monday, Sep 15 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization (August 2008)
Tuesday, Sep 16 Policy Statement of the Federal Open Market Committee
Consumer Price Indices (August 2008)
Wednesday, Sep 17 Housing Starts and Building Permits (August 2008)
Friday, Sep 19 Regional and State Employment and Unemployment (August 2008)
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