January 13, 2006

Preparing for a Pandemic

COLUMBUS, OH – Congresswoman Deborah Pryce (R-Upper Arlington) today submitted the following editorial:

If an ounce of prevention is indeed worth a pound of cure, how many ounces are necessary to protect our planet’s 5 billion inhabitants in the face of a global influenza pandemic?

Currently, health officials from around the world are concerned that our planet may be vulnerable to a global influenza outbreak known as a pandemic. Over the past century, we have endured three influenza pandemics – the 1918 Spanish Flu, which killed between 20 and 100 million people worldwide, and at least a half million Americans; the 1957 Asian Flu, which claimed roughly 70,000 lives; and the 1968 Hong Kong Flu -- the mildest of the 20 th century pandemics -- taking 34,000 lives.

Just as our nation has adopted a terrorism threat advisory system, the World Health Organization (WHO) has created one assessing the planet’s risk for an influenza pandemic; currently, the system reports that we are now closer to another pandemic than at any time since 1968. Of primary concern is what is known as the H5N1 Avian Influenza, which has infected 147 people in Asia, killing 79 of them, and is considered to be similar in structure to the deadly 1918 Spanish Flu. While the virus has not developed the ability to transmit efficiently from person to person, should it do so, a global influenza outbreak would likely result.

The WHO and the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services are currently preparing for an avian flu pandemic. While neither has any definitive way of knowing if a pandemic is imminent, both are encouraging nations to prepare immediately for an emergency response. HHS suggests that a major outbreak of the bird flu similar in strength to the Spanish flu could sicken about 90 million people in the U.S, and kill about 2 million.

The United States would face many challenges amid a flu pandemic, and not all related directly to our healthcare system. If a pandemic were to occur in the next several years, the U.S. response would be affected by the limited availability of a vaccine as well as drugs used to treat severe flu infections, and our hospitals would be ill equipped to handle the enormous surge in patients. Moreover, The Wall Street Journal suggested last week that a pandemic flu could cause the economy to “go into a tailspin” as supply-chains break down, and health care supplies disappear from the shelves amid a panicked public. A Congressional Budget Office study of the economic impact of a severe pandemic, released late last year, estimated a nearly $700 billion hit to the U.S. economy, or about a 5 percent decline in economic output during a one-year span.

So how does a nation prepare for the unexpected? On November 1, 2005, the administration released its three-pronged strategy for battling a pandemic: stopping, slowing or otherwise limiting the spread of a pandemic to the United States; limiting the domestic spread of a pandemic and mitigating disease, suffering and death; and sustaining infrastructure and mitigating impact to the economy and the functioning of society. To meet theses goals, the strategy describes three pillars of implementation: preparedness and communication, early detection, and response and containment. Along with the plan, the President requested $7.1 billion in emergency spending to enhance planning and accelerate the development of vaccine technologies, and nearly every department within the Administration is coordinating a pandemic response plan.

But while the federal government must take the lead in planning, state and local governments should also begin preparations. At a meeting on the subject last week, HHS Secretary Michael Leavitt said, “A pandemic could be unfolding in every community at the same time. The response to a pandemic absolutely must be on a state and local level.” Accordingly, HHS is providing a total of $350 million to the states this year for comprehensive planning, and is encouraging them to electronically register and credential health care professionals willing to volunteer assistance in the event of a pandemic, plan for school closings and other containment actions, and plan how to continue essential services if the work force is depleted due to illness and absenteeism.

Our nation has learned valuable, albeit immensely painful lessons from 9/11 and Hurricane Katrina. America must never let its guard down, and be cognizant of and prepared for every worst case scenario imaginable -- a global influenza pandemic would certainly be among the worst. And while it is human nature to hope for the best, it is prudent policy to prepare for the worst.