The G-8 Summit: A Time to Change Course

 

Tomorrow, President Bush will depart for Europe on a trip which will culminate in his participation in the Group of Eight (G-8) Summit.  From July 15-17, leaders from the U.S., United Kingdom, Canada, Japan, Russia, France, Italy, Germany and the European Union will gather in St. Petersburg, Russia to discuss a broad range of security and economic issues.  The G-8 Summit comes at a time when we face a number of significant challenges in the world.  Unfortunately, the Bush record of addressing today’s challenges – from the threats posed by North Korea and Iran, to relations with Russia, to energy security and international trade -- has been poor.  As the summit approaches, here is an overview of where we stand.  

North Korea

Under Bush’s Watch, North Korea Has Increased its Stockpiles of Plutonium.  A study by the National Security Advisory Group drew upon the analysis of the Group’s chairman, former Defense Secretary Bill Perry, and more than a dozen national security experts including former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, and former Assistant Secretaries of Defense Ash Carter, Graham Allison, Michele Flournoy, and found that the amount of plutonium produced by North Korea under the last three presidents to have been: 

•         George H.W. Bush: one to two bombs’ worth of plutonium

•         Bill Clinton: zero plutonium

•         George W. Bush: 4-6 nuclear weapons’ worth of plutonium and counting

Under Bush’s Watch, North Korea Has Produced Enough Plutonium for 6 to 10 Weapons Since 2002.  According to the Institute for Science and International Security, North Korea has produced enough weapons-usable plutonium for 6 to 10 nuclear weapons since 2002. 

Under Bush’s Watch, North Korea Withdrew from the Non Proliferation Treaty.  Between December 2002 and January 2003, North Korea ejected IAEA inspectors and announced its withdrawal from the Non Proliferation Treaty.  [Arms Control Today, July/August 2006]

North Korean Diplomats Had to Meet with Governor Richardson on their First Visit to the United States while the Bush Administration Was at an Impasse over its Approach to North Korea.  “Gov. Bill Richardson held what he called ‘positive, frank and candid’ discussions Friday with two North Korean diplomats, even as North Korea's decision to withdraw from the nonproliferation treaty sharply escalated a crisis over the nation's nuclear aims. . . .This official described a split within the Bush administration on how to handle the impasse with North Korea. Powell favors direct talks, but not negotiation, with North Korea. And during such talks, Powell supports discussing a possible deal that would include a written U.S. assurance not to attack North Korea in exchange for a promise by North Korea to verifiably end its nuclear weapons program, the official said. Issues being debated among President Bush's national security advisers include whether to reaffirm a 2000 Clinton administration communique in which the United States said it had "no hostile intent" toward the communist state, the source said. But hard-liners in the White House say it is ‘inconceivable’ -- in the words of one official -- that Bush would agree to that language.” [CNN, 1/10/03]

Iran

The Bush Administration Refused to Negotiate with Iran for Years, Even Though the Country Was Willing to Make Real Concessions on its Nuclear Program.  Just after the U.S. takeover of Baghdad in 2003, Iran proposed a dialogue with the U.S.  According to former senior director of National Security Council, Flynt Leverett, the offer was “a serious effort, a respectable effort to lay out a comprehensive agenda for U.S.-Iranian rapprochement.”  It reportedly included a proposal for “full cooperation on nuclear safeguards, ‘decisive action’ against terrorists, coordination in Iraq, ending ‘material support’ for Palestinian militias and accepting the Saudi initiative for a two-state solution in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.”  The Bush Administration’s refusal to enter into talks, according to Middle East expert Trita Parsi, “strengthened the hands of those in Iran who believe that the only way to compel the United States to talk is not by sending peace offers, but by being a nuisance.” [Washington Post, 6/18/06]

The Bush Administration’s Failed Record on Diplomacy Has Left the U.S. Less Capable of Confronting Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions.  According to a CSIS study of Iran’s nuclear threat, “[t]he ability of the United States, the IAEA, and the EU3 to halt the Iranian nuclear program is complicated…by the mistakes the United States and the UK made in characterizing Iraq’s efforts to acquire weapons of mass destruction.  The United States in particular has problems in convincing the international community that Iran is a grave threat to global security.”   Further, the report notes that “Teheran probably believes the likelihood of military strikes… remains remote given Washington’s preoccupation in Iraq and its appreciation of Iran’s many options to retaliate.” [CSIS, June 2006]

Misguided Diplomatic Approach is Threatening U.S. National Security Interests.  According to Flynt Leverett, former senior director for Middle East affairs at the National Security Council, without a change in U.S. strategy, the balance of power in negotiations will shift to Russia.  He warns that this could threaten vital U.S. interests, “Russia is quite comfortable with Iran having nuclear fuel cycles that would be monitored, and they’ll support the Iranian position,” because, as Seymour Hersh reports, “it gives them an opportunity to sell billions of dollars’ worth of nuclear fuels and materials to Iran.” [New Yorker, 7/10/06]

The Bush Administration’s Failure to Adequately Address the Threat of Iran’s Nuclear Program has Emboldened North Korea.  “Just as the American offer to Iran was coming together last month, American satellites over North Korea began spotting the move of the Taepodong 2 missile to the launching pad. And just as the Iranians claimed they had full legal rights under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty to produce uranium, the North Koreans insist that they have the right to test missiles, even though they promised a moratorium on such flights in 1999.” [New York Times, 6/24/06]

While President Bush Knows Putin’s “Soul”, Russia Backslides on Democracy.  “The political balance sheet of the past five years is extremely negative. The practices and institutions that have developed over this period have become far less open, pluralistic, subject to the rule of law, and vulnerable to the criticism and counterbalancing of a vigorous opposition or independent media.” [Russia's Wrong Direction: What the United States Can and Should Do, Council on Foreign Relations, March 2006]

-         “Although Russia holds regular elections at the national level based on universal suffrage, domestic and international observers do not consider them to be fair. In the March 2004 presidential elections, incumbent Vladimir Putin won 71.31 percent of the vote but secured this victory by tilting the field strongly in his favor. Most major politicians did not compete, leaving Putin to fight second-tier opponents.” [Freedom House 2005 Country Report on Russia]

-         “Russian media are losing the limited freedom they once enjoyed….Now, the state maintains extensive control over electronic media, where most of the population gets its information.” [Freedom House 2005 Country Report on Russia]

Meddling at Home, Meddling in the Neighborhood. Russia has been meddling in the affairs of neighboring democracies like Ukraine.  “This troubled relationship leapt to prominence on January 1, 2006, when Russia stopped pumping natural gas to Ukraine after the two sides had failed for months to reach agreement on Russia's proposed quadrupling of the price of gas. This led to a sharp reduction in Russian gas supplies to Central and Western Europe, which pass through Ukraine. In response to strong European protests, Russia resumed pumping gas to and through Ukraine on January 3. The next day, Russia and Ukraine announced agreement on a complicated deal that amounts to doubling of the price Ukraine is to pay for gas. Many analysts saw the outcome as strengthening Russian influence in Ukraine and politically weakening Yushchenko prior to parliamentary elections (March 26, 2006), in which Yushchenko's party fared poorly.” [Congressional Research Service, 5/8/2006]

Russia to Proceed with Arms Sales to Iran.  Russia intends to proceed with the sale of 29 Tor M1 mobile air defense missile systems to Iran, which reportedly will give the Iranians the capability to destroy incoming aircraft and cruise missiles.  In May, Senators Harry Reid, Joe Biden and Carl Levin sent a letter to President Bush urging that Russia’s planned military sales to Iran be on the agenda at the G-8 summit. 

Energy Security

Last Year, the Administration Focused its Efforts on Gutting a Proposal to Combat Climate Change.  In negotiations prior to last year’s G8 meeting, Administration officials worked vigorously to weaken a resolution containing a commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions rather than crafting any proactive energy plan.  “U.S. officials pressed negotiators to drop sections of the report that highlight some problems tied to global warming, warn of more frequent droughts and floods, and commit a specific dollar amount to promoting carbon sequestration in developing countries.” [Washington Post, 6/17/05]  The U.S. is the only member of the G8 that has not adopted the Kyoto Protocol and committed to mandatory cuts in greenhouse gas emissions.  “U.S. officials managed to excise swaths of text that called for ‘ambitious’ greenhouse gas reductions and committed G8 countries to spending a specific amount on environmentally friendly projects. They managed to eliminate the opening sentence, ‘Our world is warming,’ as well as lengthy descriptions of how melting glaciers and rising sea levels reflect recent climate change.” [Washington Post, 7/8/05]  This weekend, a group of lawmakers from the G8 countries as well as Brazil, China, India, and South Africa wrote a letter to G8 members urging them to make climate change a priority at this year’s meeting. [Greenwire, 7/10/06]

The U.S. Is Importing More Oil than Ever under Bush Republicans.  In 2006, the United States will import 58 percent of our oil and petroleum products, spending $232 billion on petroleum imports. [Annual Energy Outlook 2006, Table 11]  Last year, the U.S. imported 2 billion barrels of oil from OPEC member countries. [Energy Information Agency, U.S. Total Crude Oil and Products Imports by Country of Origin]

Gasoline Prices Hit $3 a Gallon, the Bush Administration Must Make Energy Security a Priority.  Paul Simons, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State, says, “As the world’s largest producer and consumer of energy resources, the U.S. must play a leading role in addressing the world’s energy challenges and ensuring a secure energy future.” [U.S. Department of State, Economic Perspectives July 2006, “Energy Security as a Global Partnership”] 

Trade

Under Bush’s Watch, the Trade Deficit Has Grown to Startling Levels.  Every year of the Bush Administration since 2002, the trade deficit has set a new record high.  In 2005, the trade deficit exceeded $700 billion, almost twice the level from 2001.  [U.S. Census Bureau].  On the eve of the G-8, President Bush is reportedly poised to make matters worse by agreeing to a deal on Russia’s entry into the WTO that would shortchange U.S. high-tech, financial services, agriculture, and intellectual property industries.  [Reuters, 7/11/06]

Under Bush’s Watch, the U.S. Foreign-Owned Debt Has More Than Doubled.  In order to fund the massive U.S. trade deficit, the U.S. has to borrow from foreigners.  President Bush has accumulated over $1 trillion in new foreign-owned debt, more than all previous presidents combined.  [U.S. Treasury Department, Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities; Federal Reserve Board]

President Bush Has Failed To End China’s Unfair Currency Manipulation.  One reason for these imbalances has been China’s policy of keeping the value of its currency artificially low to promote exports and keep out imports.  [National Association of Manufacturers]  Bush should use the G8 to obtain a firm commitment by a date certain for China to raise the value of its currency to put an end to its unfair advantage.