August 6, 2004

Some people get angry when I suggest that things aren't so bad. Clearly, if you're out of work, you don't feel as if "happy days are here again."

I'm concerned about the economy. The nation added 32,000 jobs last month, which is far fewer than most economists were expecting. Gasoline prices are outrageous, and are soaking up the money that people would otherwise spend on all sorts of goods and services. The high cost of fuel is a serious drag on businesses from top to bottom.

There's plenty to worry about, but then, there always is. To keep things in perspective, it's important to consider the good news as well as the bad. For example:

The economy has posted job gains for each of the last 11 months, creating 1.5 million jobs since August 2003. That's according to the Bureau of Labor Statistic's payroll survey. The BLS has an alternative household survey which shows a 2.3 million job gain over the past year. Economists argue over which survey is more accurate, but the trend is clear.

The national unemployment rate declined to 5.5% in July - down from a peak of 6.3% in June 2003 and the lowest rate since October 2001. At 5.5%, the unemployment rate is below the average of the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. Economists used to call 5.5% "full employment" because it's natural to have some people between jobs or looking for a first job no matter how good the economy is.

In Wisconsin unemployment is five percent. Manufacturing has been especially hard hit in our state, but by last June we had 5,300 more durable goods factory jobs than a year earlier.

Another big issue is the war in Iraq. There's no sign of the weapons of mass destruction that everybody expected to find, and many people feel misled and bitter about that since those supposed weapons were a central justification for the war.

Maybe Saddam Hussein actually did disarm as required by the United Nations. Or, maybe those weapons are buried somewhere. Iraq's a big country, and there are a lot of places to hide things.

In any case, our weapons inspectors have determined that, at the very least, the Iraqi regime maintained an active interest in nuclear, chemical and biological weapons, and was prepared to restart its programs as soon as international sanctions were lifted. There was a lot of sentiment in Europe that it was time to renew trade with Iraq and normalize relations, so Saddam Hussein had every reason to believe that the heat would soon be off and he would be free to resume his mission of becoming the dominant regional power.

Iraq's a mess, and I'm eager to get our troops out of there as quickly as possible. But it's worth noting that we have turned a dangerous and ruthless tyrant into our prisoner. In addition, our show of strength in Iraq caused Libyan dictator Muammar Khadaffi to agree to disarm and allow extensive inspections - inspections which proved that Libya had far more advanced nuclear and other weapons programs than we realized.

And then there's our ally, Pakistan, whose top nuclear weapons expert turned out to be aiding the Libyan and North Korean nuclear programs - "unofficially," of course. Our resolute efforts in Afghanistan and Iraq have caused Pakistan's government to put an end to the selling of nuclear technology.

We've made mistakes in Iraq and paid a high price, and it's fair to debate the wisdom of going to war, but it's important to recognize that we have achieved some important successes as a result of smashing Saddam's regime.