WASHINGTON — Endangered birds, fish and plants in Vermont are disproportionately threatened by global warming, according to a new report that identifies a massive New England wildlife refuge as a potential casualty of the shifting climate.

The Silvio O. Conte National Fish and Wildlife Refuge - cutting a wide swath of 7.2 million acres along the Connecticut River in four states - is one of 10 sanctuaries in the U.S. that could suffer from car and industry pollution, says the report, authored by a group called Defenders of Wildlife.

Ten endangered or threatened species live in the refuge, encompassing more than one-third of Vermont, including birds like the piping plover and peregrine falcon and fish such as the shortnose sturgeon.

"Projected rises in global temperatures of 2 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit (over the next century) may change the very nature of the Conte refuge and the New England countryside," the report says, citing data by the Environmental Protection Agency.

Warmer temperatures and more rain could drive whole forests north by as much as 200 miles, the report says. The threat of changing flora transfers directly to its inhabitants.

"Some wildlife species may be able to adapt or migrate with the forest habitat, some will not," the report grimly states. The Conte sanctuary is highlighted in the report as one of the nation's 10 "most endangered refuges," joining sanctuaries like Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

The Conte refuge was created in 1991 to protect threatened wildlife, as required under the Endangered Species Act of 1973. It spans the entire length of the state, encompassing the wide watershed projecting out from the Connecticut River. More than 2 million people live within the refuge, including residents of Brattleboro.

Andrew French, manager of the Conte refuge, said future policies affecting the sanctuary are likely to consider the impact of climate change. But he said it's unknown exactly how wildlife would be affected by global warming, or if the changes can be stopped.

"There's definitely an impact," he said of rising temperatures. "I think that things like that (in the report) could happen."

Car exhaust and coal power plant emissions - carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas - become trapped in the atmosphere and slowly raise the earth's temperature, many scientists and lawmakers assert.

"Sadly, it does not surprise me that the natural landscapes Vermonters care deeply about, including the Nulhegan Basin section of the Silvio O. Conte National Wildlife Refuge, increasingly face threats from the consequences of global warming," U.S. Rep. Bernard Sanders, I-Vt., said in a statement. "What does surprise me is that the Republican-controlled Congress still questions the overwhelming scientific consensus regarding global climate change and continues to block policies to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions."

Sen. James Jeffords, an independent retiring in December, introduced a sweeping bill this summer to attack global warming. It would reduce carbon dioxide emissions to 80 percent below the 1990 levels and require that 20 percent of the nation's electricity derive from renewable sources.

"The science is clear," said Jeffords spokeswoman Diane Derby. "Global warming is a real threat, and our nation must act now to decrease greenhouse gas emissions."

The Bush administration eschews acknowledging that global warming is caused by human activity.

Some scientists, meanwhile, say that accurately predicting climate change is unlikely given the complex nature of the earth's system.

Forecasting changes in specific geographic regions is even less likely, says Roy Spencer, principal research scientist at the University of Alabama's Earth System Science Center in Huntsville.

"I don't think there's much basis in having confidence in predicting any kind of climate change in New England," he said.

Nevertheless, global warming is becoming a central issue in New England.

The Supreme Court will hear a case between Massachusetts and the Environmental Protection Agency in November that could reshape federal regulations on auto emissions.

Massachusetts is arguing that the EPA has failed to regulate tailpipe emissions under the Clean Air Act. The EPA says it doesn't have the authority to do so.