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NEWS EXTRA
August 15, 2005
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China at the Crossroads
By U.S.
Congressman Ed Case
I returned August 9th from ten days in the People's
Republic of China, one of a bipartisan delegation of
twelve members of Congress led by my U.S. House
Small Business Committee chair and friend, Donald
Manzullo (R-IL). Our direct purpose was to represent
Congress and our country in Round VII of the
U.S.-China Interparliamentary Exchange, a program
established in 1999 under which members of Congress
and our counterparts in the National People's
Congress (NPC) alternate meetings in the U.S. and
China. More broadly, I went to (a) understand better
the motivations and challenges of a country rapidly
emerging into superpower status, (b) communicate our
own country's hopes and concerns with China's
emergence on a broad range of economic, political,
human rights, military and other issues, and (c)
advance the great potential China's rapid
development holds for Hawaii.
Our
travels took us from Beijing, the ancient and modern
seat of government, to multiethnic Yunnan Province,
industrial/rice bowl Chengdu, haunting roof-of-the-world Tibet, and go-go Shanghai. We spoke with
senior leadership of the omnipresent Chinese
Communist Party (CCP) (and thus of China itself) in
the walled compound of Zhongnanhai, so well and
ironically insulated from the people, as well as
the NPC in the Great Hall of the People at Tiananmen
Square, and provincial leadership at each stop. We
endured highly scripted statements
reflecting government positions on hot-button issues
like Taiwan, our growing trade imbalance,
intellectual property piracy, Tibet autonomy and the
lack of basic freedoms.
But
beyond this formalistic officialdom, we had
remarkably frank interchanges on what is
really driving them and China. We also interacted
candidly and without government interference with a
broad range of grassroots citizens, from street
vendors to university students, soldiers, Buddhist
monks, farmers and large business owners and their
workers. We benefited tremendously from the
collective knowledge of our own in-country foreign
and commercial service professionals, who push out
beyond the confines of our embassy and consulates to
find the pulse of the real China. And I had most
productive meetings with Bo Wu, Hawaii's
representative in China, as well as our consuls
general in Beijing, Shanghai and Chengdu, on
Hawaii-specific challenges like visa hurdles for
local businesses.
What
rises to the top from this incredible infusion of
often-conflicting information and
impressions? Certainly a better understanding of the
rich complexity of China today with which to make
educated decisions in Congress, but also some
frustration in returning with more questions than
answers. Here are some observations:
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There's no doubt that the tiger is fully
awake. This country of 1.3 billion in an
area larger than the mainland U.S. has sustained
an annual economic growth rate of 10%-plus for
almost two decades and could well top the world
inside of a generation. It has done so largely
by offering what is by our standards cheap
labor: skilled technicians on the floor of
Intel's Shanghai semiconductor plant, for
example, earn around US$6,000/year.
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Yet there are tremendous internal challenges.
While some are getting very rich and hundreds of
millions are living much better, well over half
of the population still lives in what we would
regard as great poverty and beyond the patina
of increasing prosperity. National
infrastructure, especially outside of the
mega cities of the east, is undeveloped, there
is an insatiable thirst for resources,
and pollution is growing such that trace
elements are now being picked up here in Hawaii.
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The Communist Chinese Party ultimately runs
everything, but it is no longer a party of
ideology, only of raw centralized power. It is
also riding a bucking tiger, reaching
"understandings" with places like Shanghai to
trade increased capitalist freedom and limited
autonomy for fealty to central government and
no-dissent commitments, buying loyalty from
underdeveloped provinces with infrastructure
investment, and trying to control internal
have/have not flare-ups.
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Our basic freedoms -- religion, association,
press -- clearly do not exist in China, but it's
not that simple. In the incredible Potala Palace
and Jokhang Temple in Lhasa or Ganden Monastery
at 14,000 feet in rural Tibet, the people are
clearly practicing religion, yet only
state-recognized religion can be practiced and
permission must be gained to become a monk.
There are many papers and television shows, but
the content is clearly government-influenced.
People are certainly associating with each
other, but formal, especially large-scale,
associations are also subject to government
approval. The basic deal: you can do what you
want as long as it doesn't threaten government
control, and there is a very low threat
tolerance.
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Chinese foreign policy goals are fourfold.
First, maintain national unity, with a primary
focus on absorbing Taiwan. Second, counter what
it views as U.S. hegemony. Third, assure
adequate resource sources to feed continued
internal growth. Fourth, develop trade
relationships that will advance its own growth.
And do all of this without getting into any
fights with the U.S, at least not yet.
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The Chinese military is expanding rapidly,
especially its naval and ballistic missile
capability. It professes to be doing so for
purely "defensive" goals, but it clearly desires
to at least gain the capability to occupy and
hold Taiwan. Whether its long-term goals include
further military expansion are unclear: China is
quick to point out, accurately, that
historically it does not have a record of
expanding beyond its historic territory, but its
thirst for resources could eventually lead it in
the same direction as Japan in the first half of
the last century.
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China's people appear to have mixed feelings
about all this. They appear uniformly proud of
their country's recent direction, both
externally and internally. They know they don't
have the freedoms of the West, but appear to
believe that's the price to be paid for progress
and are willing to take the long road to get
there. They are intrigued by our country,
viewing us as having many attractive attributes
and puzzling shortcomings. They are not
anti-American, but simply skeptical and open to
having their minds changed.
What
does this all add up to? Overall, China wants what
China wants, and what it wants internally is
prosperity, unity and stability, and externally to
project its sphere of influence and take what it
views as its rightful place as a world superpower.
It is very deliberately trying to accomplish all of
this, and is willing to take a longer road to get
there.
How
should we deal with China? We can start by balancing
our own federal budget, for under today's crushing
deficits China is our fastest-growing creditor,
giving it unnecessary economic and political
leverage over us. On trade, smart, fair trade should
be our goal, drawing China into mutual international
agreements and requiring intellectual property and
other protections. On human rights and freedoms, we
can't "make" China do what we want overnight, but we
should continue to highlight outright abuses and to
facilitate information flow to China's people that
will lead them to their own conclusions. Militarily,
President Reagan's maxim, "trust but verify," sums
it up, and clearly we must maintain an adequate
deterrent capability in the Asia-Pacific region,
highlighting our Hawaii's role. Overall, our actions
and decisions must be fair, firm, realistic, duly
respectful, consistent, and with the same long-term
view as China follows.
China
at the crossroads is a work in progress, the future
of which is anything but predestined. As it emerges
further, it will be either a constructive or
destructive force for our world. The course China
takes and its relationships abroad, predominantly
with our own country, will be among the most vital
determinants of our world condition for generations
to come. Thus, the relationships we develop and
decisions we make with respect to China must be
among our highest national priorities.
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Electronic Mail
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and ed.case@mail.house.gov
E-Newsletter
Last Updated:
08/16/2005
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