Lungren In the News
 
 
 

Bush bets big on his plan for retirees

President initiates 60-day effort to win Social Security allies

 
 
 

Carolyn Lochhead, Chronicle Washington Bureau


Friday, March 4, 2005
 

Washington -- President Bush is poised to throw every bit of his political firepower at saving his plan to add private accounts to Social Security, making an all-out gamble to reverse the potentially mortal slide of the idea in public opinion polls.

Day by day for two months, Bush has seen his top domestic goal -- at root a reshaping of the New Deal that would cement his conservative legacy -- slipping away under a relentless combination of Republican ambivalence and unified Democratic opposition.

But rather than retreat, Bush is going on the attack, kicking off today a "60-day, 60-city" tour by top White House officials coordinated with outside allies and modeled on his re-election campaign. Bush will visit New Jersey and Indiana today, with top officials visiting 29 states in all.

While conceding he has "a lot of work to do," Bush said Thursday he "gets energized" by traveling the country and "taking on big problems," pointing to polls showing that while the public is skeptical of private accounts, most believe Social Security faces long-term financial problems.

"We're at the early stages of this process," Bush said, adding, "politicians need to be worried about not being part of the solution."

"This will be the political equivalent of a carpet bombing," said Michael Tanner, a private account advocate at the libertarian Cato Institute and a top administration ally. "I don't think there's ever been an issues campaign quite like what's going to be coming in the next 60 days."

The campaign will be coordinated with the GOP apparatus, including a mobilization of the grassroots volunteers who helped Bush win in November.

It will be fortified by heavy advertising from business-backed groups such as the Coalition for the Modernization and Protection of America's Social Security and Generations Together, which are funded by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Business Roundtable and others. So-called "527s," the tax- exempt advocacy groups that sprouted in the last election, also will be involved.

"This ball game is just getting under way," White House spokesman Scott McClellan said. "We haven't even had our chance to go to bat and step up to the plate."

Public opinion polls released this week showed serious slippage for Bush on Social Security. A Pew Research poll found less than half of those surveyed -- 46 percent -- support the president's idea to allow workers to invest part of their Social Security payroll taxes in private accounts, down from a majority -- 54 percent -- in December.

Bush would allow workers born in 1950 or after to divert 4 percent of the 12.4 percent Social Security payroll tax to restricted investments in stocks and bonds. Their future Social Security benefits would be reduced by a like amount plus 3 percent interest.

The government would have to borrow several trillion dollars to pay benefits for retirees as workers diverted funds to the personal accounts, although the accounts would presumably reduce future government obligations. Bush proposes separate measures to shore up the program's cash flow by sharply reducing the growth of future benefits.

These far less popular details have eroded support from younger workers do not believe Social Security will deliver for them and had been inclined to support individual accounts.

The White House moved Thursday to shore up GOP ranks in Congress, where open questioning of Bush's plan and its prospects has done as much damage to the idea as the Democratic attacks.

Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist made a speech on the Senate floor Thursday backtracking from his comment Tuesday that Social Security legislation might not move until next year.

"We need to do it this year," Frist declared. "Not next year, but this year."

Senate Finance Committee Chairman Charles Grassley of Iowa had told reporters Monday that time was running out for Bush's plan, and on Wednesday said he would be inclined to drop the issue of private accounts in favor of focusing on the Social Security's financial problems. On Thursday, however, he issued a statement vigorously supporting private accounts.

"The president has made Social Security a priority issue, and Congress should take advantage of this presidential leadership," he said.

Eyeing the failure of President Bill Clinton's health care plan in 1994, which sank in part from its complexity, Bush has avoided laying out a specific plan whose details would be open to attack. But this has caused problems for its supporters, who say Democrats have filled in the blanks.

"It's one thing to say, 'No, that's not what the plan does,' " said David John, a private-account supporter at the conservative Heritage Foundation. "It's another to say, 'We don't think that's what the plan does, but we don't know for sure.' "

Tanner predicted a shift from Bush's emphasis on the financial problems facing the retirement program to a more "positive" discussion of the advantages of individual accounts, including asset accumulation by the poor and personal ownership.

But opponents believe they have the upper hand. Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid sent a letter to Bush on Thursday insisting that the White House take private accounts off the table, while offering to negotiate other items.

Taking a page from the White House, the Democratic National Committee is starting ads in states Bush will visit, targeting vulnerable Republicans.

"We're certainly putting the power back into the third rail," said Toby Chaudhuri, spokesperson for the Campaign for America's Future, referring to the view that elected officials who tamper with Social Security are killed politically by voters.

Chaudhuri's labor-backed advocacy group has been coordinating a broad- based attack on Bush's plan with AARP, the giant retiree group, and MoveOn.org, a pro-Democratic advocacy group. "As far as I see it, President Bush's Social Security boat is swiftly sinking," he said.

Democrats and their allies are fighting the administration toe to toe with their own campaign machine. Chaudhuri said his group made sure that Republican town hall meetings over the February recess were peppered with opponents to the president's plan. Democratic senators are planning road trips of their own over the weekend to four states.

Rep. Dan Lungren, R-Gold River (Sacramento County), who backs private accounts, said he believes they address the biggest complaint he heard at town hall meetings, which is that Congress has spent years of surplus Social Security payroll taxes.

Lungren said he now has a photograph of the Social Security trust fund, which he said consists of four file cabinets in a building in West Virginia holding government bonds.

"You have to show people what it is you're talking about," Lungren said. "My explanation of personal accounts is that these are the only true lockboxes that will prohibit me and other members of Congress from getting our grubby hands on it. That seems to resonate with people."

But some conservative activists concede that if Senate Democrats remain unified -- as Reid vows they will -- they will have enough votes to kill Bush's plan.

"Do I think (Bush's plan is) going to happen in the next two years? I think as much as anything is impossible in the world, that's impossible," said an activist who would not speak for attribution to avoid angering the White House.

E-mail Carolyn Lochhead at clochhead@sfchronicle.com.

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