September 12, 2006

September:   Sept. 29, 2006   Sept. 28, 2006   Sept. 27, 2006   Sept. 26, 2006   Sept. 21, 2006   Sept. 20, 2006   Sept. 19, 2006   Sept. 14, 2006   Sept. 13, 2006   Sept. 12, 2006   Sept. 07, 2006   Sept. 06, 2006 JULY:   Jul. 28, 2006   Jul. 27, 2006   Jul. 26, 2006   Jul. 25, 2006   Jul. 24, 2006   Jul. 20, 2006   Jul. 19, 2006   Jul. 18, 2006   Jul. 17, 2006   Jul. 13, 2006   Jul. 12, 2006   Jul. 11, 2006   Jul. 10, 2006 JUNE:   Jun. 29, 2006   Jun. 28, 2006   Jun. 27, 2006   Jun. 26, 2006   Jun. 22, 2006   Jun. 21, 2006   Jun. 20, 2006   Jun. 19, 2006   Jun. 16, 2006   Jun. 15, 2006   Jun. 14, 2006   Jun. 13, 2006   Jun. 12, 2006   Jun. 9, 2006   Jun. 8, 2006   Jun. 7, 2006   Jun. 6, 2006 MAY:   May 25, 2006   May 24, 2006   May 23, 2006   May 22, 2006   May 19, 2006   May 18, 2006   May 17, 2006   May 11, 2006   May 10, 2006   May 4, 2006   May 3, 2006   May 2, 2006 APRIL:   Apr. 27, 2006   Apr. 26, 2006   Apr. 25, 2006   Apr. 6, 2006   Apr. 5, 2006   Apr. 4, 2006 MARCH:   Mar. 30, 2006   Mar. 29, 2006   Mar. 28, 2006   Mar. 16, 2006   Mar. 15, 2006   Mar. 14, 2006   Mar. 9, 2006   Mar. 8, 2006   Mar. 7, 2006   Mar. 2, 2006   Mar. 1, 2006 FEBRUARY:   Feb. 28, 2006   Feb. 16, 2006   Feb. 15, 2006   Feb. 14, 2006   Feb. 8, 2006   Feb. 1, 2006 JANUARY:   Jan. 31, 2006 DECEMBER:   Dec. 16, 2005   Dec. 15, 2005   Dec. 14, 2005   Dec. 13, 2005   Dec. 8, 2005   Dec. 7, 2005   Dec. 6, 2005 Archives

Don’t get caught flat-footed in front of the press!  Below is a quick rundown of today’s “must reads.” – John T. Doolittle, House Republican Conference Secretary

The Morning Murmur –  Thursday, September 12, 2006

1. Al-Zawahri: Gulf, Israel Next Targets - Associated Press
Osama bin Laden's deputy warned that Persian Gulf countries and Israel would be al-Qaida's next targets, according to a new videotape aired by Al-Jazeera on the fifth anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks.

2. Americans likely to vote their wallet - Washington Times
Several polls show that the No. 1 issue heading into the election season is not the war in Iraq or the terrorist threat, but the performance of the U.S. economy, and that voters' attitudes have begun to improve recently, partly because of last week's sharp decline in oil and gasoline prices.

3. Jack Bauer Insurance - Wall Street Journal Op-ed
What would Jack Bauer do? If he worked at the CIA in real life today, the anti-terror hero of Fox's "24" would apparently be buying insurance in case the ACLU or John Kerry decided to sue or subpoena him for protecting America with too much vigor.

4. 'Blogosphere Spurs Government Oversight - USA Today
The latest trend in government oversight: More light is being thrown on Congress, not just by the media and public interest groups, but in the "blogosphere" where Internet users meet.

5. Less Promise for Democrats in N.Y. - New York Times
Democrats had envisioned significant gains in New York, but their goal of picking up as many as five seats in the Empire State now seems increasingly remote.

For previous issues of the Morning Murmur, go to www.GOPsecretary.gov

FULL ARTICLES BELOW:

1. Al-Zawahri: Gulf, Israel Next Targets - Associated Press

Sep 11, 10:46 AM (ET)

By LEE KEATH

CAIRO, Egypt (AP) - Osama bin Laden's deputy warned that Persian Gulf countries and Israel would be al-Qaida's next targets, according to a new videotape aired by Arab broadcaster Al-Jazeera on Monday, the fifth anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks.

Ayman al-Zawahri accused the governments of Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia of supporting Israel's war against Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Addressing the West, the al-Qaida No. 2 said: "You should not waste your time in reinforcing your troops in Iraq and Afghanistan because they are doomed to defeat and are already all but defeated."

"Instead, you have to reinforce your troops in two regions. First is the Gulf, where you will be thrown out after you are defeated in Iraq, at which point your economic ruin will be achieved," he said. "The second is Israel, because the jihad reinforcements are getting closer to it."

He also condemned the U.N. peacekeeping force now deploying in Lebanon under terms set out in a cease-fire resolution.

"What is so terrible in this resolution ... is that it approves the existence of the Jewish state and isolates our mujahedeen in Palestine from Muslims in Lebanon," he said in excerpts of the video aired on Al-Jazeera television.

"This is consecrated by the presence of international troops who are hostile to Islam," he said. "Anyone who accepts this resolution means that he accepts all these catastrophes."

In other portions of the tape aired by CNN earlier Monday, al-Zawahri urged Muslims to intensify their opposition to the United States and warned in general terms of new terror strikes.

"We have repeatedly warned you and offered a truce with you," al-Zawahri said, addressing Americans. "Now we have all the legal and rational justification to continue to fight you until your power is destroyed or you give in and surrender."

The video was not on any of the militant Web sites that usually carry messages and videos from al-Zawahri and other al-Qaida figures. As-Sahab, the terror network's media arm, had posted notices late Sunday that the video would be available.

It was the latest in a flurry of al-Qaida videos released ahead of the anniversary. But unlike the others, it appeared to be new with references to Israel's bombardment of Lebanon this summer and the capture of Israeli soldiers by Hezbollah and Palestinian militants in Gaza.

The video shows the Egyptian-born al-Zawahri dressed in white and seated in front of a wall of bookshelves as he is interviewed by an unseen person. The full video is an hour and 16 minutes, the stations said.

"Your leaders are hiding from you the true extent of the disaster," he said. "And the days are pregnant and giving birth to new events, with Allah's permission and guidance."

Al-Zawahri criticized the West for supplying Israel with weapons, and he called on the Islamic world "to rush with everything at its disposal to the aid of its Muslim brothers in Lebanon and Gaza."

Late Sunday, another video posted on the Internet, purportedly by al-Qaida, showed previously unseen footage of a smiling bin Laden and other commanders in a mountain camp apparently planning the Sept. 11 attacks on the United States.

That tape's documentary-like retrospective of the five years since the attacks was unusually long - 91 minutes, split into two segments - and sophisticated in its production quality, compared with previous al-Qaida videos. The footage - with English subtitles - surfaced on the eve of the fifth anniversary of the attacks, on a Web site that frequently airs messages from bin Laden's terror network.

"Planning for Sept. 11 did not take place behind computer monitors or radar screens, nor inside military command and control centers, but was surrounded with divine protection in an atmosphere brimming with brotherliness ... and love for sacrificing life," an unidentified narrator said.

The video released Sunday, stamped with the emblem of As-Sahab, al-Qaida's media branch, was titled "Knowledge is For Acting Upon: The Manhattan Raid."

It showed the al-Qaida leader meeting with colleagues in a mountain camp believed to be in Afghanistan, as well as video clips of Vice President Dick Cheney defending his old job at the oil company Halliburton, and President Bush at his inauguration. Other scenes show training at the camp, with masked militants doing martial arts kicks and practicing hiding and pulling out knives.

It included the last testament of two of the Sept. 11 hijackers, Wail al-Shehri and Hamza al-Ghamdi, and showed bin Laden strolling in the camp, greeting followers.

"Among the devout group which responded to the order of Allah and order of his messenger were the heroes of Sept. 11, who wrote with the ink of their blood the greatest pages of modern history," the narrator said, referring to the hijackers who flew planes into the Pentagon and World Trade Center.

Al-Shehri and al-Ghamdi were each shown speaking to the camera, their image superimposed over background pictures of the crumbling World Trade Center towers and the burning Pentagon, as well as a model of a passenger jet.

They both spoke of how Muslims must stand up to fight back against the West.

"If we are content with being humiliated and inclined to comfort, the tooth of the enemy will stretch from Jerusalem to Mecca, and then everyone will regret on a day when regret is of no use," al-Ghamdi said.

The two videotaped final statements had never been seen before.

Al-Shehri was on American Flight 11, which was the first to hit the World Trade Center. Al-Ghamdi was on United Flight 175, which hit the second tower.

In the footage, bin Laden wore a dark robe and white headdress, and was shown sitting alongside his former lieutenant Mohammed Atef and Ramzi Binalshibh, another suspected planner of the Sept. 11 attacks.

Atef, also known as Abu Hafs al-Masri, was killed by a U.S. airstrike on Afghanistan in 2001. Binalshibh was captured four years ago in Pakistan and is currently in U.S. custody, and last week Bush announced plans to put him on military trial.

Bin Laden was shown expressing his appreciation for the Taliban, the Islamic regime that ran Afghanistan and gave refuge to al-Qaida until the U.S.-led invasion toppled them in late 2001.

The video showed events up to 10 years before the Sept. 11 attacks - U.S. troops in Saudi Arabia during the 1991 Gulf War and bin Laden preaching to followers after the 1998 attacks on U.S. embassies in Kenya and Sudan. It also showed events afterward including a man in an orange jumpsuit at the U.S. prison in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.

It was unclear when the tape was made, or how soon before the Sept. 11 attacks the footage of bin Laden was recorded.


http://apnews.myway.com/article/20060911/D8K2NDBO2.html
 

2. Americans likely to vote their wallet - Washington Times

By Donald Lambro
Published September 11, 2006

Several polls show that the No. 1 issue heading into the election season is not the war in Iraq or the terrorist threat, but the performance of the U.S. economy, which has gotten poor marks from voters despite steady growth and lower unemployment.

But pollsters conducting election surveys for Republicans say persistently sour voter attitudes about the economy have begun to improve recently, partly because of last week's sharp decline in oil and gasoline prices.

"We're seeing that as gas prices have come down, attitudes about the direction of the economy have improved," pollster David Winston said.

Voter concern over the top two or three issues has risen or fallen in tandem with progress in the war in Iraq, the cost of oil and gas and news about the foiled terrorist plot in London. For much of the year, the top three issues -- Iraq, terrorism and the economy -- jockeyed for first place.

But as the political battles over Iraq and the war on terrorism were ratcheted up by President Bush and the Democrats in recent weeks, polls showed that Americans were more concerned about the economy and pocketbook issues closer to home.

A CNN/Opinion Research poll of 1,004 Americans taken Sept. 4 and 5 showed that 28 percent said the economy would be the most important factor in their congressional vote this November, followed by Iraq at 25 percent and terrorism at 18 percent. Moral issues (15 percent) and immigration (14 percent) were fourth and fifth, respectively.

That poll showed voters giving the economy failing grades, with 56 percent rating it "poor" overall, compared with 44 percent who called it "good."

A Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll of 900 registered voters taken Aug. 29 to 30 reported similar results. When asked which issue would be most important for their vote, 23 percent said the economy, compared with 14 percent who said Iraq and 12 percent who said terrorism.

When gas prices began to climb in the summer driving season, voter complaints about the economy climbed, too.

"Those are the two top issues now, Iraq and the economy," Mr. Winston said. "Those are the two areas that are leading people's concerns."

But with oil prices down from more than $70 a barrel a few weeks ago to $66 at the end of last week, and gas prices falling to an average of $2.68 a gallon for regular -- and to as low as $2.40 in places such as Ohio -- there was growing speculation among Republican strategists that if prices continue to fall, the political climate would improve for the party's candidates.

"Gas prices is one of those issues that is very important as long as they are high," Michigan pollster Steve Mitchell said. "But when they drop, the issue falls off the radar screen."

Mr. Winston said he is seeing movement in the polls as a result of lower gas prices.

"The more positive views people have of the economy, the more favorable the environment is for Republicans," he said.


http://washingtontimes.com/national/20060910-115757-5017r.htm

3. Jack Bauer Insurance - Wall Street Journal Op-ed

Can CIA agents be sued for protecting America with too much vigor?

Tuesday, September 12, 2006 12:01 a.m. EDT

What would Jack Bauer do? If he worked at the CIA in real life today, the anti-terror hero of Fox's "24" would apparently be buying insurance in case the ACLU or John Kerry decided to sue or subpoena him for protecting America with too much vigor.

The Washington Post reported yesterday that more CIA counterterrorism officers are signing up for private insurance that would pay for civil judgments and legal costs if they are sued or charged with a crime. These are the agents who interrogated Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, Abu Zubaydah and other jihadis, using what President Bush last week called methods that were legal but "tough." Those methods succeeded in breaking these men into divulging information that led to the arrest of other al Qaeda bigs, and to the foiling of plots that could have killed thousands.

" 'There are a lot of people who think that subpoenas could be coming' from Congress after the November elections or from federal prosecutors if Democrats capture the White House in 2008," wrote the Post, quoting a retired intelligence officer close to the CIA's Directorate of Operations, which conducted the interrogations. This is not paranoia. We reported yesterday how Carl Levin, the Michigan Democrat, is blocking Bush nominees simply for having been mentioned in passing in emails about Guantanamo. Some of us also remember the infamous Frank Church hearings of the 1970s that pilloried the CIA and weakened it for decades.

Though the government pays the premiums for this kind of insurance, it is a sorry spectacle that these agents must now fear partisan retribution for having done precisely what the country asked them to do. The story is one more reason Congress should follow through on Mr. Bush's request to put its stamp of approval on such interrogations, including ex post facto immunity for these CIA officers.

Intelligence is the front line of this anti-jihadi conflict, and the danger from the current political second-guessing is that CIA officers will go back to the FBI's law enforcement mentality of reading terrorists their Miranda rights that failed the country leading up to 9/11. The country needs Jack Bauer insurance, too.


http://www.opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html?id=110008930

4. 'Blogosphere Spurs Government Oversight - USA Today
 

By Richard Wolf, USA TODAY

WASHINGTON - When watchdog groups that monitor federal spending wanted more information on 1,800 "pork barrel" projects buried in a House appropriations bill, they listed them on the Internet and asked readers to dig deeper. Within days, details began pouring in.

The same thing happened when Porkbusters.org enlisted readers of its website to find out which senator had blocked legislation that would create an online database of federal grants and contracts. One by one, senators were eliminated until Ted Stevens, R-Alaska, and Robert Byrd, D-W.Va., were uncovered.

The two episodes illustrate the latest trend in government oversight: More light is being thrown on Congress, not just by the media and public interest groups, but in the "blogosphere" where Internet users meet.

"It's probably the biggest expansion of government oversight that we'll ever have," says Thomas Schatz of Citizens Against Government Waste, one of the groups pioneering the effort. "It will turn every American into a watchdog."

Producing results

Their involvement is getting action: House Majority Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio, has promised a vote this week on a rules change that would ensure the sponsors of individual projects are identified. And Republicans in the House and Senate say they will approve the national database this year.

The amateur investigators are people such as Jamie Peppard, an accountant from Long Island, N.Y., and serial blogger who writes under the name "Mrs. Panstreppon." She researched groups such as the Congressional Glaucoma Caucus Foundation, which stands to receive nearly $1.2 million to screen patients in New York, Texas and the Virgin Islands. She unearthed tax forms showing the foundation pays several six-figure salaries.

They're people like Mario Delgado, the publisher of Porkopolis, a Cincinnati-based blog that determined Ohio stands to gain nearly $34 million from 135 projects in the pending House appropriations bill that funds health, education and labor programs.

And they're people nationwide who called their senators to ask if they were blocking action on the database - an obscure bill that has become controversial because of senators' anonymous objections. Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, R-Tenn., credited the passion of the "blogosphere" for winning Senate passage last week.

"There are citizens in every community who either take this as their responsibility or as their joy - or maybe a little bit of both," says Zephyr Teachout, national director of the Sunlight Foundation, which seeks greater transparency in government. "Reporters and good-government groups can't do it on their own. There's a real need."

Advances in technology and communication now make it easier for average citizens to be researchers, reporters and muckrakers.

The model for many watchdog groups is the Center for Responsive Politics, whose website, opensecrets.org, puts information about lobbying and campaign finance into accessible formats for Internet users. "Citizens have been doing some really good work on their own," says Ellen Miller, who left the center to take charge of the Sunlight Foundation.

Citizens got involved last year when blogger Josh Marshall, publisher of TPM Muckraker, urged readers to find out which House Republicans voted in closed caucus to let indicted lawmakers keep their leadership posts. After a public outcry, Republicans reversed the vote. As a result, Texas' Tom DeLay had to step down as majority leader last year after being indicted on campaign finance charges.

Targeting 'earmarks'

Such citizen involvement peaked again this summer when watchdog groups ranging from the conservative Citizens Against Government Waste to the more liberal Sunlight Foundation sought to shed new light on congressional "earmarks," the individual projects lawmakers insert into spending bills.

Nearly 10,000 projects costing $29 billion were funded in the current fiscal year. It was another project, however - the so-called bridge to nowhere in Alaska, originally included in last year's highway bill for $223 million - that made the issue politically volatile.

"The bridge to nowhere certainly got some traction," says Sen. Lincoln Chafee, R-R.I., who supported it as part of the highway bill. His challenger in next week's primary, Steve Laffey, opposes all earmarks.

When word filtered out last month that a senator was refusing to let the database bill come to a vote, Porkbusters urged its online faithful to find out who it was. Nearly every senator denied involvement. Ultimately, Stevens and Byrd acknowledged objections.

Around the same time, a loose coalition of groups published a complete list of earmarks in the House version of Congress' biggest spending bill, each adding unique technological tools. Porkbusters breaks them down by state and keyword. Sunlight uses Google Maps to show where each project is located.

Bloggers such as Jamie Peppard took it from there. She dug into groups such as the glaucoma foundation, discovering that it paid $340,000 to its CEO and more than $100,000 each to a consultant and part-time treasurer.

"I'm an ordinary citizen who does not have to answer to shareholders or anyone else," Peppard says. "I also have the luxury of spending as much time on a particular project as I want to."

Government watchdogs say the new effort to reach and empower average citizens is a two-way street: It provides Americans with needed information and enables them to give some back.

"Maybe it really will be an empowering tool - the Internet leveling the playing field," says Gary Bass, executive director of OMB Watch, which seeks greater government accountability and citizen participation. "If that's true, this is very, very exciting."


http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2006-09-11-blogs-find-pork_x.htm

5. Less Promise for Democrats in N.Y. - New York Times

By RAYMOND HERNANDEZ

In a year when Democrats hope to take control of the House of Representatives, New York would appear to be fertile ground for toppling Republican incumbents. Democrats have a statewide edge in enrollment, and a popular incumbent, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, is at the top of the party's ticket.

In fact, just a few months ago, Democrats envisioned significant gains in New York, perhaps picking up as many as four seats, possibly even five. But that goal now seems increasingly remote, and there is an emerging consensus among political analysts that the party's best chance for capturing a Republican seat is the battle to succeed Representative Sherwood L. Boehlert, one of the most liberal Republicans in Congress, who is retiring.

At the same time, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee plans to spend roughly $50 million on advertisements for races around the country, according to Republican estimates. But none of that money has been set aside for New York races, except for Mr. Boehlert's seat in the 24th District in the Utica area, according to Democrats involved in the races.

The shifting local fortunes for Democrats could have serious political implications beyond New York. The party needs 15 seats to take control of the House. Even one victory in New York would be an important step toward that goal, giving the Democrats a cushion if they lose elsewhere in the nation.

The situation in New York is particularly surprising given the state's reputation as a Democratic bastion. National and state party officials have spent months trying to create buzz around those races. But Republican incumbents, in New York and elsewhere, have been trying to shift the focus of the races away from hostility toward the Bush administration to more local concerns, like the potential loss of federal aid to their districts if they lose veteran congressmen.

Representative John E. Sweeney, one of the Republican incumbents, said the situation in New York demonstrated the drawbacks of the Democratic effort to present the midterm elections as a national referendum on President Bush and the policies of Republican leaders in Washington. "Congressional races are local," he said. "There can be superseding events like Watergate. But those are rare. These races really are a referendum on the people running."

In addition - and perhaps most important - the incumbents in New York are benefiting from being in legislative districts drawn to keep the Republican incumbents in place.

The Democrats' inability to gain traction can be measured in the fund-raising disparity between them and Republicans, and is reflected in interviews with strategists in both parties and independent analysts. The national party assesses the strengths of a campaign according to several factors, including the ability of candidates to raise money on their own and their standing in polls.

Some Democrats argue that national party leaders are making a strategic mistake by not being more aggressive in contesting Congressional seats early in a heavily Democratic state like New York. This year in particular, strong campaigns by Eliot Spitzer and Mrs. Clinton, who are both expected to win primary races tomorrow by wide margins, could help generate a huge Democratic voter turnout on Election Day.

Dan Maffei, a Democrat running against Representative James T. Walsh, a Republican representing the Syracuse region, argued in a recent interview that the national party should do more to help him and other Democrats challenging potentially vulnerable incumbents in New York. He said that such support would, if nothing else, give Democrats a strategic advantage in the larger battle for the House and force national Republicans to allocate resources that they otherwise plan to use to defend Republicans elsewhere in the country.

The Congressional campaign committee "needs to be contesting in more districts," Mr. Maffei said.

"If you open up this front," he said, "the Republicans will have to defend it."

Among the seats Democrats have hoped to capture is the Albany-area seat held by Mr. Sweeney, a four-term Republican who has come under criticism for his ties to lobbyists. Kirsten Gillibrand, the Democrat trying to unseat him, also argued that Democratic leaders in Washington ought to be aggressively expanding the map by stepping in with financial support for races like hers.

The campaign committee should "invest in a range of races in a range of districts so it can come up with a winning combination on Election Day," Ms. Gillibrand said, though she noted that national party leaders had lent support by, for example, helping her raise money.

Representative Charles B. Rangel, a Harlem Democrat who is the dean of New York's Congressional delegation, said he understood the strategy of national Democratic leaders, given the limited amount of money the party has. But he expressed hope that more money would pour into New York as some races tightened.

In the meantime, he said, the unusually high level of public unhappiness with the direction of the nation works in favor of Democratic challengers, as long as they have enough money to keep their campaigns running. "It is just as important as money," he added.

Some Democrats say nothing should be read into the fact that the House Democrats' campaign committee has not begun investing heavily in New York races, noting that it is still early in the fall campaign season and that national Democratic leaders have offered support by making campaign appearances with the challengers and helping them raise money.

"We continue to feel great about our opportunities in New York and even more so than we did a couple of months ago," said Bill Burton, a spokesman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

Independent analysts say that several factors make New York an especially difficult place for challengers. The state has 29 House seats, and 9 are held by Republicans, most in upstate areas where districts have been drawn to give Republicans a significant edge, countering increasing Democratic enrollment in the state.

The situation in New York contrasts with the political dynamic elsewhere in the Northeast, a heavily Democratic region that is central to the party's plans for wresting control of the House. In Connecticut, for example, two Republican seats are being fiercely contested in races described as toss-ups. Republican incumbents are also facing stiff challenges in a handful of other states, including Pennsylvania, Indiana, Ohio and Florida.

Amy Walter, an analyst of House races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, said that independents would not play nearly as crucial a role in New York's Congressional races as they do in states like Connecticut and Pennsylvania because New York's districts tend to be heavily Republican.

"New York is a tougher place for Democrats than other parts of the Northeast," she said.

The Gillibrand-Sweeney contest in the 20th Congressional District outside Albany underscores the challenges that Democrats face in New York.

Ms. Gillibrand, a lawyer, has been a strong fund-raiser, taking in nearly as much money as Mr. Sweeney. And she and her advisers have run a tenacious campaign, generating headlines by exploiting some of Mr. Sweeney's actions, including a $2,000-a-person "Skiing With Sweeney" weekend getaway he organized that was attended by lobbyists at a resort in Park City, Utah. Mr. Sweeney denied doing anything improper. A spokeswoman said that a lobbyist involved with the trip represented two companies that employ more than 2,000 people in the congressman's district, and that Mr. Sweeney had discussed economic development efforts with him.

But for all that, Ms. Gillibrand appears to have a long way to go in a district where there are nearly 100,000 more Republicans than Democrats. A recent poll released by the Siena Research Institute showed Mr. Sweeney with a 19-point lead.

The Sweeney-Gillibrand race shows how Republicans have deliberately focused on local circumstances and personalities rather than on national issues, at a time when President Bush continues to show weakness in the polls around the country.

For example, one advertisement that the Sweeney campaign began airing in June talks about the congressman's "humble roots" in Troy, a blue-collar city in the district, and describes his father "as a union guy who worked three jobs." Fittingly, the advertisement is called "The Kid From Troy," and it concludes that Mr. Sweeney's rise to Congress is nothing short of a "New York story about America's promise."

Ms. Gillibrand, whose campaign released a poll showing Mr. Sweeney ahead by a smaller margin, sought to play down the significance of polls showing her far behind and predicted that the Democrats' campaign committee would begin funneling resources into her race as she closed in on Mr. Sweeney.

"In the abstract, this is not an obvious race," she said. "But I have made the case from the beginning that this race is winnable because of the changing nature of our district, the voting record of John Sweeney and the strength of our campaign."

Republicans say another reason for the situation shaping up in New York is that their party's incumbents quickly turned their attention on potential challenges to head off serious problems later.

For example, two Republican incumbents in New York, Mr. Walsh and Mr. Sweeney, began running advertisements in June, long before the traditional start of the campaign season, on Labor Day.

Even Thomas M. Reynolds, a Buffalo-area congressman who is the chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, weighed in with advertisements of his own, in late July, apparently to head off attacks from his Democratic challenger, Jack Davis, a multimillionaire businessman.

"The G.O.P. incumbents recognized the difficult environment early on and mobilized to beat back their challenges early," said Carl Forti, a spokesman for the National Republican Campaign Committee. Mr. Reynolds has been highlighting his ability to deliver federal aid to the economically struggling region.

Democrats say there is plenty of time for challengers to close any gaps. To that end, one prominent liberal group, MoveOn.org Political Action, is running advertisements attacking Mr. Sweeney and John R. Kuhl Jr., a first-term Republican from the Corning area, as part of a national campaign to help Democratic challengers who are in so-called second-tier races: contests that have the potential to become competitive but are not considered competitive yet.

The seats that the Democrats had identified as enticing targets include those held by Mr. Sweeney, Mr. Kuhl, Mr. Walsh, Sue Kelly of Westchester, and Mr. Boehlert. State Senator Raymond A. Meier, a Republican, and his Democratic opponent, Michael A. Arcuri, the Oneida County district attorney, are fighting for the seat that Mr. Boehlert is vacating.

The Democrats have also had their eye on Mr. Reynolds, who in 2004 won with 56 percent of the vote over Mr. Davis, who has vowed to spend $2 million on his campaign this year.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/11/nyregion/11house.html?pagewanted=2&_r=2&ei=5094&en=47f0a9d78a31d3a5&hp&ex=1158033600&partner=homepage